Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves scented candles, pizza, sarcasm, and lively discussions. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge. Last week, in his debut, he placed a lot of runners in the money, but didn’t have any top selections get their picture taken. He encourages you to fade his picks.
Race One: 1:05 post – Claiming 25K 7F 3YO and UP
2-5-4-8
Our first race on the card is a wide open affair with a few different ways to turn. Eight runners are carded and five of them have been claimed around this level since the beginning of August. #5 Town Classic is our morning line favorite and I am going to try to beat him. Three of the last four races ran by Town Classic are good enough this race, but the clunker in his last effort is enough to get me to look elsewhere. Both #2 Elwood’s Advice and #4 Pitch Count are entering today’s opener for new connections, and I like them both. Pitch Count is now trained by John Ortiz who hits at 18% 1st off the claim and he gets Florent Geroux. Elwood’s Advice moves to hot trainer Tom Amoss (28% 1st off the claim) and Corey Lanerie. Amoss has a nose for the claiming game and spots his horses well and I am even more encouraged by the two solid works since being acquired at the Indiana Grand claiming box. I also look for #8 Forze Mau to improve off of his recent barn change.
Race Two: 1:39 post – Maiden Claiming 15K 1 Mile 3YO and UP
3-10-6
I’m not going to lie, I am totally trying to steal this race on the front end from our morning line favorite #10 Rio Bueno with bug-boy Edgar Morales up for #3 Fault Line in his third consecutive race. Morales and trainer Paul McGee ride with the lightest weight on a recently improving horse and should win the early speed battle. If Morales can get him to rate just a little, I expect a win here. Rio Bueno can’t be ignored in this spot as he is lightly ran for Brad Cox and should improve immensely with the blinkers on. I just have to wonder why this fellow is entered so low on the ladder. #6 Alexandros should be gunning for the front for Asmussen/Santana Jr., but I expect them to be the loser of the front end duel and fade to the back end of the prizes.
Race Three: 2:12 post – Claiming 7500 6F 3YO and UP
3-5-11-10
The least classy race of the day has a wide-open field of eleven runners carded for a $7,500 claimer for fillies and mares. Truly exciting! #2 Erin’s Wish and #10 Northern Connect look to have run the best races of this bunch last out against each other in a $5,000 claimer at Churchill Downs, but I don’t think those efforts are good enough to win here at Keeneland moving up one level. #5 Gales of November has won her last three races and is shipping in from Presque Isle after a little freshening. She may very well win this race, but I really like #3 Betruetoyourschool (go Erskine College, SC!!!) here. Mitchell Murrill stays with this Patti Miller Arlington shipper after a bleeding effort in her last race. The October 4th workout tells me they fixed the problem and I expect her to be on the engine from the jump. If #11 Abby in Pink had drawn a little better to the inside I would have likely made her my top selection, but gate positions 9 and out are currently 1/32 (much thanks to Ed DeRosa) in one-turn races on the dirt at the current Keeneland meet. I just think she has too much to do. The same goes for #10 Northern Connect.
Race Four: 2:45 post – Maiden 67K 1 6F Turf 2YOs
2-1-3-4
On paper, this race of 2YO maidens looks to be all about the runners with previous experience and I am not going to try to beat them as they all drew to the inside in the dirt sprint (see above). #1 Istan Council and #2 Wheedle look a small notch above #4 Paper Clip in this 67K MSW, and I don’t expect one of the first time starters to upset the party. I am going with Wheedle, who debuted at Saratoga for Rudolphe Brisset, over the rest of the field. Brisset is much better in his horses’ second race than their debut and I expect the same results here. #3 Vomba looks to be the class of the first time starters and I truly love the work pattern for this Albert Stall entry. Stall does hit at 25% first out, and attracting Jose Ortiz is definitely a plus. Vomba is a definite “use” for me on my horizontals, but I think the previous runners have this race handled.
Race Five: 3:18 post – Allowance 73Kn3x 1 1/8 Turf 3YO and UP
3-6-5-2
The only way #2 Zapperini wins this race is to fire to the front and hold on. Though I respect his recent efforts, I think there is too much class in this field to walk the dog into the winner’s circle, especially with #8 Judah sure to be of the same mindset. #5 Krampus gets Jose Lezcano back in the irons for Billy Mott and there is a lot to like with this horse as he certainly didn’t embarrass himself in the Tourist Mile last out at Kentucky Downs. #6 Team Colors was claimed for $50K by Brad Grady and Joe Sharp in July 2018 at Saratoga but then proceeded to lose the rider in their first start. I think we have some hidden value here and the workouts are certainly encouraging. Yes, I know that #3 Utmost is the morning line favorite, but he certainly deserves to be. Utmost looked to be an improving sort from Great Britain before he was eased last out in the G1 Northern Dancer. I expect Graham Motion to have this classy colt ready to roll after the hiccup.
Race Six: 3:51 post – Maiden 67K 1 6F Turf 2YOs
5-8-1-2
This race, with duplicate conditions of today’s 4th race, didn’t draw the same quality of experienced runners and I think two of the first time starters have a chance to win at first asking. #1 Vegan Goes Best has a nice workout pattern for Larry Jones who wins at 18% with FTS and getting Gabriel Saez is sure to help the cause. #5 Champagnerie is trained by Wayne Catalano (19% FTS) and sports an excellent workout line peppered with three “breezing from the gate,” a move I love in well-intentioned first time starters. I’m standing with Wayne here against our morning line favorite #8 Workaholic. Sure she can win this race and I always love it when an unassuming jockey stays aboard (hello Carlos Villasana), but I just can’t stomach a Laura Wohlers favorite. If another first time starter doesn’t come home fourth, I expect #2 Eye’s Reward to pick up a minor check.
Race Seven: 4:24 post – Allowance 75Kb 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO and Up
1-6-8-11
To me, this appears to be a two-horse race as I am totally taking a stand against 10YO gelding #9 Slim Shadey. #6 Master Merion is back in the United States for his second start since returning from Royal Ascot with Wesley Ward. You really have to ask yourself the question if he is actually going to be lone speed in this spot or will someone else challenge him on the front end. I personally think the pace will be a little more heated by the presence of #7 Mr. Cub and #11 Big Changes, both of whom need to gun for the front end to have a chance here. I looked at this race the longest of any on this card and I kept landing on #1 Parlor. Eddie Kenneally has worked him pretty proficiently coming off his last effort against Shadwell Mile winner Next Shares. I would love to take #8 Some in Tieme at a price here, but I just think there is a little too much to do against this field
Race Eight: 4:57 post – Allowance 69Kn1x 1 1/16 3YO and Up
6-3-2-8
I would like to welcome #3 Pony Up back from a three month freshening and I think he has a nice shot here if he can fire. Moving away from the Pletcher barn is not an angle I normally take, but it looks like Jack Sisterson has a couple of nice works in him since his last effort at Saratoga on the turf. I like the return to dirt with him, but I am looking for another to get their picture taken. Billy Mott’s #2 Own Agenda is really intriguing in this spot off of his last race at Parx and adding Jose Ortiz is sure to help. I think the hidden value of the race is with Kenny McPeek and his runner #8 Uber Kirk. I fully expect a front end battle with a scorching pace and this will set me up with my top selection #6 Hollywood Star. Dale Romans wasn’t able to get the job done at this level at Saratoga in August, but after a little freshening and four solid works, I see Robby Albarado closing into the pace up front to steal this one at the wire.
Race Nine: 5:30 post – Grade 3 Buffalo Trace Franklin County 5 1/2F Turf F&M 3YO and Up
9-12-7-13
I am taking a stand against our morning line favorite #3 Belvoir Bay as I think this west coast shipper will not care for the give in the Keeneland turf. Several of these runners have banged heads against each other this past year with #9 Chanteline and #12 Ruby Notion getting the best of it. I expect much the same here and I am standing with Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana Jr. Ruby Notion has won her last two races with Florent Geroux and he stays aboard, but I am not thrilled with the trip she will have to navigate to pass horses in the stretch. I expect a huge effort from #13 Brielle’s Appeal, but again the outside post is sure to be compromising. #7 Girls Know Best (and they really do) could certainly upset the apple cart as her best race was here at Keeneland in April 2018 and getting Jose Ortiz back in the saddle is confidence-instilling.
Race Ten: 6:03 post – Claiming 20Kb 7F 3YO and Up
3-5-11-4
#3 Come on Dover and #4 Turner Time look to battle on the front end in this $20K claimer. I personally like Come on Dover getting a weight reduction under Edgar Morales dropping into this spot. Turner Time threw in the towel early in his last effort and I expect the same here. For me, the wild card is #5 Dragon Moon. Why would Wesley Ward enter this $262K purchase at such a low level coming over from Great Britain? We haven’t even seen this one run on Lasix yet (which he gets today). Smells like fish and chips to me. I honestly think #11 Because It’s Time is the best entry in the race, but the post position in this sprint is likely too much to ask.