This is the third day of the special five day, Keeneland summer meet. The first Grade 1 of the meet, The Makers Mark, Mile is carded today as well as the Beaumont, which could produce contenders for the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga next month. There are some good betting puzzles throughout the card, so hopefully, we can make a few dollars this afternoon.
Race 1: 50,000 Claiming, Non-Winners of 2, 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 2-4-5
This is quite the puzzle kicking off the card. The seven starters feature horses that started at five different tracks last out (Belterra, Turfway, Indiana Grand, Churchill, and Canterbury), five of which that are racing for a tag for the first time, and two of which who have never raced on dirt. There’s a lot of early speed and no true closer, so I’ll opt for the horse who I think will be fastest early, which is Lover Boy (2). His Churchill debut was a disaster, but he meant business in start two at Belterra, where he was hustled from the gate and dominated maiden special weight company there. I’m not sure what he beat, but he was fast early, and that may be enough here. My Man Flintstone (4) looks to regroup after two rough starts against better horses. Although his only career win came on synthetic, he has decent dirt form on his resume. Daylight (5) was a little green on debut in maiden special at Belterra, but he won a dogfight against a next out winner. He should offer value while racing for unheralded connections.
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, F/M, 1 Mile 3/16, Turf, My Picks: 4-2-9
More Good Times (4) has three career starts, but makes her first start today for Maker, so it’s plausible to think she’ll be prepared to handle the extra distance. She is tactical enough to sit a good trip in this race without having to withstand the wide journey she encountered at Tampa last time. Fortuna (2) has a rail draw and is the only filly that is cutting back in distance here. She took a big step forward in her three year old debut and should be competitive with these today. Shell Shock (9) has the best early speed in the group, so she should be able to use the long run into the first turn to gain good position. Her first turf start on 9/22 was decent, despite fighting Jimenez early and often that day. I’m a little nervous that she’s going wear down in the final furlong, but her works are sharp and Rosario takes the call. If he can get her to relax on the front end, I could see her going gate to wire. It’ll be all about price with her for me, as the 4-1 morning line seems quite low. If her odds float up above 8-1, I’ll likely fire a shot.
Race 3: Allowance N1X, 6 ½ Furlongs, My Picks: 3-6-1
I’m going to take a shot with Solomonic (3) to run them down in this spot at a price. He was claimed for 10K in a grass race at Indiana Grand in September. His next start was in with open 20K claimers here, and he buried that field, winning by 9 ¼ lengths. His races this winter at Oaklawn were not his best, but most of those races were at two turns. His last race in a one turn mile at Churchill was better and he’s facing a few horses in here that aren’t competitive when they’re can’t make the lead. Heros Reward (6) has won his last three sprint races, improving in each one as he climbs the class ladder. He was originally a $450,000 purchase that was claimed for $20,000 in May, which could turn out to be a steal. Gozilla (1) was well meant when he won handily in his debut at Saratoga last summer. He was defeated twice in Grade 1 company, most recently losing to Belmont winner, Tiz The Law in the Champagne. He has been working well for his return and should be respected today.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo F, 5 ½ Furlongs, Turf, My Picks: 9-3-1
Two year old fillies on the grass here, where ten of the twelve in the body of the field are making their first career starts. The two with experience do little for me, so I’ll try to find a little value with Touch Of Class (9). Bernie Flint does well with two year olds and usually has horses well prepared to debut. I like her pedigree for a turf sprint with Mizzen Mast (by Cozzene) on top and some speed underneath from a Grand Slam mare. Guana Cay (3) will most likely be favored at post time, as is the case with most Wesley Ward two year olds at Keeneland. She figures to be dangerous in this spot where not many jump off the page. Lollygag (1) is a bit intriguing as you don’t see too many horses sired by Freud, racing outside of New York. I have done well betting young Freud horses in turf sprints in the past. I don’t love the rail, and Lauer’s horses usually need a race, but it’s a plus that Geroux gets the call. She may get overlooked here.
Race 5: Optional 80,000 Claiming/Allowance N3X, 1 Mile 1/16: My Picks: 7-8-5
Bourbon Resolution (7) won the G3 Ben Ali Stakes here last spring in what was his best career effort. After that he tried tougher in the Alysheba, where he was beaten by McKinzie and Tom’s d’Etat, then tried two graded stakes races on grass to end his 2019 campaign. He started this year losing to Vekoma at 7 Furlongs in stakes company, then finished a solid second last month at this level. I think he sits a better trip today and scores. Troubling Moon (8) is undefeated in two tries at two turns on a fast track. He’s second off a layoff, and back doing what he seemingly wants to do. Royal Mesa (5) is not in the best form right now, but his last four races have been on turf or synthetic. His dirt form was trending up last year, and he is a two time winner on this oval.
Race 6: Optional 62,500 Claiming/Allowance N2X, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 7-8-2
This is a tricky race where there’s a lot of early speed in here and a lot of horses that seem to struggle to pass other horses. Assuming the track is playing fairly, I’ll take a shot with Almithmaar (7) who showed speed at two turns, but faltered late last time at Churchill. If he can duplicate his effort from two back with open 40K claimers, he should be dangerous. Candy Cornell (8) has early foot, but also has the ability to rate. He might have the best staying power of the early speed horses. Complexifier (2) makes his three year old debut, and should be more of a threat next time out. He was a winner on this course at this distance in the fall.
Race 7: The Grade 3 Beaumont, 3yoF, About 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 2-3-4-5
1. Slam Dunk: She was beaten 6 lengths by Wicked Whisper as maiden in the Frizette last year, then graduated in her next start at Churchill. Her return at Gulfstream was a disaster, but you can assume she wanted no part of two turns. She may grow to be competitive at this level, but I’m not sure she’s there yet.
2. Speech: She makes a lot of sense if her connections choose this race over the Ashland. She cuts back to a sprint after three straight two turn races where she was second to Donna Veloce, Gamine, and Swiss Skydiver. She looks fit and ready to fire, but I suspect, she’ll be opting for the Ashland, as she has entered in that race on Saturday (where she is the 2-1 second choice on the morning line). I will use her as a single if she’s racing in this spot instead.
3. Four Graces: She was very impressive beating Edgeway last out in the Dogwood. She is undefeated in three tries at 7 Furlongs. She can rate, but if Speech opts out, she’s the likely pacesetter. I trust her to be more fit than Wicked Whisper in the latter stages of this race.
4. Wicked Whisper: She’s the only Grade 1 winner in the field, as she won the Frizette last year. She went on the struggle in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, when she had an outside post and couldn’t make the lead. She could’ve disliked the track or the two turns that day. For today, I think Four Graces is more likely to lead early, which may hurt her chances to score in her return.
5. Sconsin: She ran her eyeballs out, closing into a fast pace in optional claiming/allowance company last time. She may get a similar scenario here if Wicked Whisper is determined to make the lead, but she has to prove that she can run the same race again while moving up in class.
6: Turtle Trax: She closed within 3 lengths of Frank’s Rockette last out, but that one was never threatened in that race and wasn’t asked for much. Her one turn races are better than her two turn efforts, but she’ll have to take a big step forward to beat the top three.
Race 8: The Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile, 1 Mile Turf: My Picks: 4-10-5
1. Hembree: He has a solid late kick, but hasn’t finished first since February of last year in a listed stakes race. His form is improving, but he’ll need a perfect trip along with regression from some of the others to win. His best chance is underneath.
2. High Crime: He’s an interesting horse in here, as he’s mostly been a sprinter in his nine race career. He dominated last out while sprinting, but I’d have to think he’d be a better fit in the Shakertown tomorrow. I think the water will get too deep in the last quarter mile.
3. Parlor: He’s a little more versatile than his stablemate (Hembree), as he can win near the front end or close from off the pace. He’s also in good form, but in the past, he has come up a little bit short every time he has competed in graded stakes company.
4. Raging Bull: He debuted a winner here in 2018 as a three year old and has steadily improved ever since. His last seven races have been in Grade 1 company, with his most recent, in the Shoemaker Mile, being his best race yet. He could be sitting on a monster year and is a deserving favorite in this race.
5. English Bee: He’s been keeping company with Hembree and Parlor in his most recent starts, but I’d argue that as a four year old, he might have more upside than both of those six year olds. His four year old form is getting better as he continues to race, and he could offer some value underneath in here.
6. Everfast: This longshot has only one win, but is most notable for finishing second in the Preakness last year. His presence in this spot is a bit of a surprise, as it seems that he could be developing into a decent dirt horse. I’m not really seeing turf in his pedigree. He would be a big surprise to me.
7. Emmaus: He was a game fifth in the Wise Dan last out at Churchill at a big number. I wasn’t sold on him being a true two turn horse last time and I have the same concern today, especially against better foes.
8. Without Parole: He is the other Chad Brown entrant in this race. He was 2 ¾ lengths behind Raging Bull in California last time out. So far, he has always come up short in Grade 1 company, so it’s hard to accept a short price on this one.
9. Next Shares: Last year, it looked like this seven year old gelding was losing a step or two, as he struggled in many of his races. With the exception of the Pegasus World Cup Turf at 9.5 Furlongs, his last three races at 8 or 8.5 Furlongs have been solid. He’s run well here in the past and is worth watching if his odds climb over the 8-1 morning line.
10. War of Will: Last year’s Preakness winner is looking to become a dual surface Grade 1 stakes winner. He got a little tired in his seasonal debut in the Shoemaker at Santa Anita. I think there is less pace in this race and despite his wide post, I think he can carve out a solid trip and take a big step forward in his second start of the year.
Race 9: 50,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 6-9-5
The finale has a lot of interesting entrants, but the edge goes to the morning line favorite, Backshot (6) as he cuts back in distance while also dropping into maiden special weight. I think he’s the most likely winner, but there are other options if the price gets too low. Vasariano (9) was claimed by Asmussen for 20K last out while racing at 9 Furlongs. I think he has the potential to improve, while passing some speed and fade types in the stretch here. Dive Deep (5) finds a pretty salty maiden claiming race to make his first career start, but Rivelli’s percentages in maiden claiming races and with first time starters is definitely worth paying attention to. Irad Ortiz taking the mount is also a big positive.