Race 1
The return of Keeneland is often a welcomed sign of spring returning, a breath of fresh air, and an indication that the Derby is right around the corner.
We have a nice 10 race card here on the first Friday of the meet.
*This card was handicapped with turf racing in mind. If they are unable to run on the turf because of weather, draw a line through those races.
#1 Social Circle
Going to try routing on the dirt for the first time. The pedigree suggests that this shouldn’t be too big of a problem. She is also taking a drop in class from maiden 50,000 to maiden 30,000. She has spilt the fields in her two previous efforts on the dirt, both in sprints. Trainer Phillip Sims is a decent 17% when going sprint-to-route. Also, a layoff of this length (31-60 days) is one of this trainers strongest angles, hitting at about 20%.
#2 Art Buff
This four-year-old filly is taking the huge drop from maiden special weight company down to this $30,000 level. Her debut effort was a mile and an eighth on the turf at Gulfstream Park. She really didn’t do much running that day. Finishing ninth out of 10. They do make the change of adding blinkers for this one, so we’ll see if that sharpens her up in the early going. Brisset is 21% with 2nd time starters. Jose Ortiz takes the call.
Race 2
#9 Lady Pauline
A two-year-old race at Keeneland in April means two words: WESLEY WARD!
So with that being said I like number 9, Lady Pauline. In addition to the good training I’m sure she’s received to this point, she is also bred to be fast being by Munnings and out of a Forest Wildcat mare. She is also a half to all world runner Lady Aurelia.
#6 Main Squeeze
Another Wesley Ward runner here (enough said) This filly has been training over the synthetic track at Turfway Park. Has a bullet workout coming into this race. And I’m sure she’s ready to fire.
Sorry I couldn’t be more creative in this race, but Ward usually holds all the cards in these events.
Race 3
#2 Golden Curl
Of the horses with racing experience in this race, this one definitely looks the best. She finished a solid second in her debut at Gulfstream Park for trainer Brian Lynch. Javier Castellano rode her that day and he’s back for this one. She gets Lasix for the first time today, and that’s actually not a great angle for Lynch (4%). However she does show some really solid works leading up to today’s race, and like a said, she definitely looks to have the best foundation under her compared to the other runners that have raced.
#8 Second Coming
This filly is a first time starter by Ghostzapper, sent out by trainer/owner Rusty Arnold. She’s been working pretty consistently all winter long down in south Florida. Arnold likes to point for this meet, and is more than capable of putting one in the winners circle. He gets Brian Hernandez to ride, and they hit at about 20% together.
#3 Club Car
Another first time starter in here. This one is trained by Ben Colebrook, who is about 11% with firsters. Malibu Moon on the top side of the pedigree, with Into Mischief on the bottom, so could definitely show some ability at first asking. Colebrook is off to somewhat of a cool start in 2019, but that could turn around. Tyler Gafflione aboard.
Race 4
#5 Environs
She is making her first start here in the states today for trainer Chad Brown. This Juddmonte homebred was previously trained by the great Andre Fabre over in Europe. She’s been working steadily for this one, and I think she actually catches a fairly week field for this second level allowance. I’m sure she’ll be a very short price, but I definitely think she’ll be the one to beat. Jose Ortiz rides.
#4 Nantucket Red
This girl hasn’t raced since mid February back at Gulfstream Park. Her race two back was a pretty good effort beating first level allowance foes going a mile and an eighth. She has shown the ability to be a little bit tactical, so I’m thinking she can be somewhere in the first flight of runners in this race that doesn’t have a ton of pace on paper. Bill Mott is off to a very nice start in 2019, hitting at a 20% win clip so far.
#8 Sea Dream
I really don’t know what to make of this Brazilian bred mare. She’s ultra consistent, having finished in the money in all 11 of her lifetime starts. But it’s hard to gauge the competition level she’s been facing, and also the ground conditions. Almost all of her starts have been on less than firm ground. If today’s race runs on yielding or soft turf, take an extra look at this one. Joel Rosario does take the call, so I’m interested to see how this one runs today.
Race 5
#1 Sergio
This five year old gelding is back in the barn of Mick Ruis. He brings this one in from Southern California. He’s obviously had his fair share of issues, considering the layoff lines in his past performances and the fact that he just broke his maiden last time out as a five year old. All that being said, I think that was pretty good effort. He’s facing winners for the first time today, but this is a logical spot, and I think he’s got a great chance in here. Chris Landeros rides, he and Ruis are 3 for 10 over the past year.
#10 Homefortheweekend
Second start off of the three month layoff. It’s also second time blinkers, which I believe is a useful angle. The biggest reason I give him a look in here is the turnback in distance. His only 2 dirt tries so far have been at a mile and seventy yards, I feel the cutback to one turn today could be to his benefit.
#8 Western Trouble
This gelding makes his second start off an eighth month layoff. He showed some decent speed last time out going a mile. Understandably got a little tired at the end. I think the cutback to 6.5f today will also benefit this guy. They add blinkers as well, so I’m expecting him to be forwardly placed and get a good position early on. He does have a race over this track last spring, it was a decent effort against MSW company.
Race 6
#9 Del Mar May
This three year old filly by Jimmy Creed makes her return to the races. She hasn’t raced since the grade one Chandelier at Santa Anita last September. That race wasn’t great for her, but if she can run back close to her efforts last summer at Del Mar, she’s going to be really tough to beat. She was second on debut to the highly regarded Brill. Then in her second start, the grade two Sorrento, she ran second to Bellafina; a legit contender for this years Kentucky Oaks. She’s been working well, and trainer Richard Baltas is 21% off a six month layoff. Rosario has the mount.
#1 Sister’s Creed
Debut runner here from the barn of Kenny McPeek. He doesn’t normally have a lot of success with firsters, but this filly has a nice pedigree (even though she is an Ohio bred), and her works look very solid. Four strong 5f drills coming in. I wouldn’t necessarily look for her to be super quick from the gate, and with Leparoux in the saddle I expect them to settle and try to make one run at the end.
#4 My Majestic Rose
This chestnut filly comes in from spending the winter down at the Fair Grounds. She raced there three times over the winter, and had a couple good efforts. Her two sprints were actually quite good. She finished 3rd in a field of 10, and then 2nd in a field of 12. She likes to come from behind and I think the 7f could be perfect for her. Jose Ortiz rides for Rudy Brisset.
Race 7
#2 First Premio
Mark Casse sends out this 5YO chestnut. His last couple races were pretty good efforts down at the Fair Grounds over the winter. Two back he won a stakes race going today’s distance of a mile and a sixteenth. In fact, he’s 2 for 2 at this distance. He has some decent tactical speed, so I think he can get a good position and save some ground. Brian Hernandez takes the mount.
#8 Offering Plan
This is a really nice New York bred, earner of over $750,000. Chad Brown trains, and he used the exact same path for this horse last year. Finished 2017 in the Mohawk Stakes at Belmont, and began here at Keeneland in 2018 in an allowance race like this one (and won.) So last year, ended with the Mohawk, and now shows up here. So no doubt he should be able to fire a big effort off the bench. He doesn’t much for early speed, so he’ll need a little bit of a setup, and some racing luck trying to navigate from behind in this 12 horse field.
#11 Arklow
This guy is a multiple graded stakes winner for trainer Brad Cox. He hasn’t raced since the Breeders Cup in November, but Cox hits at 24% off the layoff, and this horse looks to be training well leading up to this. It’s been quite a while since he has a distance this short, but he does have to wins at this distance, so he’s definitely capable. And he has finished in the exacta in both career races here at Keeneland.
Race 8
#8 Get the Prize
Second time starter here for trainer Al Stall. This guy ran a really strong race on debut to break his maiden at first asking at the Fair Grounds in February. The pedigree suggests that two turns and this distance should not be an issue. Stall is a respectable 17% going sprint to route. Miguel Mena was aboard for the debut, and he’s back on today. There looks to be a lot of potential speed in here, and it’s hard to project the pace scenario, but I don’t think this guy will need the lead. So hopefully he doesn’t get caught up in a wicked pace duel.
#9 Intrepid Heart
This Tapit colt ran huge on debut down at Oaklawn. Breaking his maiden by over 7 lengths going one mile, over 8 other rivals. He set a legitimate pace that day and just drew away in the stretch. To be completely honest, I’m a little surprised these connections aren’t taking a shot in one of the Derby preps this weekend, because they crop looks a little weak. But nonetheless, this is a logical spot, and he’s got a great chance to win here. Pletcher trains, Johnny V rides.
#2 US Navy Cross
This Chad Brown trainee makes his 3YO debut here today. His last race was in the G3 Nashua, he finished 4th in a field of 6. He hasn’t really shown any early foot in his first two starts, now, those races has sprint type fractions early on. This race today shouldn’t be quite that fast early, so he could lay a little closer. Being by Curlin, this distance should be more to his liking. I look for him to be rolling late.
Race 9
#6 Dunph
I’m taking a shot here with a first time turfer. He’s been on the Kentucky Derby trial up to this point. And he didn’t actually run all that bad in a few of those races. He ran well in the Springboard Mile against Derby contender Long Range Toddy, and he also ran decent in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is trained by Mike Maker, who hits at about 16% with his turf runners. And this horse also has some decent turf pedigree, with Dynaformer on the top side and Sky Mesa on the bottom side. He draws a good post today, and Leparoux rides.
#7 Louder Than Bombs
Trainer David Fawkes brings this colt up from Gulfstream Park. He’s run in four straight stakes races, and he seems to be improving a little each time. He doesn’t have a lot of speed, so he’ll need a good trip to come from behind in this full field. Luis Saez takes the call, and he is off to a tremendous start here in 2019, winning at 24%.
#4 Avie’s Flatter
This Flatter colt is making his US debut. All four of his previous starts have been up north at Woodbine. He’s won on both turf and synthetic. His turf win was on a yielding course, which given today’s forecast, could come in handy. Josie Carroll is a great trainer, but just 7% off the layoff, that’s why I decided against putting this one on top. I decided to go with some runners with more recent form. But I still expect a pretty good effort from this guy. Javier Castellano has the mount.
Race 10
#4 Fuel the Bern
Danny Gargan brings this one in from New York. He’s been freshened up since January. Gargan is 23% with this type of layoff, and he has some good works coming in. He should be a pace presence in this one, and draws a good post. He’s got a win on a track with some moisture in it, which could also be the case today. Top jockey Luis Saez takes the call.
#7 Time On Target
This 4YO has really shown an improvement this year. He’s coming off two strong showings at Gulfstream Park, including a win last time out. He projects to get more a stalking trip in here. Luis Saez has the mount last time, and it looks as though he opted with a different one in this race (my choice listed above), but Leparoux rides today and has ridden this horse well in the past. Bill Mott trains.
#1 Coastbuster
This a little bit of a track condition play. He broke his maiden in the slop last month at the Fair Grounds, taking that field gate to wire. That race was off an 18 month layoff, so that was a decent effort. Trainer Ian Wilkes is 17% with runners 2nd off that layoff. Chris Landeros rides, and he is 17% when he teams up with Wilkes in a sample of almost 250.