Buy or Sell : Roy H
The 2017 Sprint division champion Roy H is back to defend his title as he attempts to become only the 2nd horse to ever win back to back Breeders Cup Sprints (Midnight Lute did this in 2007-2008). The question all year surrounding Roy H has been “Has he lost a step?” and personally, I don’t think he has and here is why.
Right off the bat I know you are saying “But Vinny, he only has 2 wins so far in 2018” and to that I say, well… in both 2017 and 2018 Roy H had 4 starts before the Breeders Cup. Heading into the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Roy H had a record of 4-3-1-0 on the year with his loss coming in the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes to Ransom the Moon. Heading into the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he has a record of 4-2-1-1 with losses coming in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen where he finished 3rd behind Mind Your Biscuits and XY Jet, two very talented horses who are both multiple graded stake winners. His other loss in 2018 was again in the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes where again for the 2nd straight year he finished 2nd to Ransom the Moon. Both of these loses in 2018 are nothing that I hold against Roy H and actually I prefer his 2018 form over his champion 2017 form.
In 2017 where Roy H won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he had starts in May, June, July, and October before the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. This schedule made it an overall of 5 races in a 7 month span, which I know most of you are saying “Vinny, that is not a lot”, and to that I agree, but let’s compare this to 2018. In 2018 Roy H had two starts in both February and March, then was off until July then was off again until October. With the Breeders Cup Sprint now scheduled to be his 3rd start back in North America since July, Roy H is still eligible to run an improved effort in this spot. The next question I know I need to answer is “Vinny, the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Sprint is a tougher field then the 2017, is he good enough to beat this year’s group?” and to that I simply say “Is it though?”
The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Sprint included contenders such as Imperial hint, Mind Your Biscuits, Ransom the Moon, Drefong, and Whitmore. The 2018 Breeders’ Cup Sprint will not include Mind Your Biscuits who will be stretching out and running in either the Dirt Mile or the Classic, and will not include Ransom the Moon and Drefong, both multiple G1 winners as they both have been retired. That takes away three multiple G1 winning horses out of Roy H’s way in his quest for back to back Sprint Championships. Now let’s look at who is scheduled to run against Roy H in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
The 2018 Breeders’ Cup Sprint is scheduled to include the likes of Imperial Hint, Whitmore, XY Jet, Promises Fulfilled and Limousine Liberal. Now of these horses, Imperial hint, Whitmore, and XY Jet have all run against Roy H before and of those 3, only XY Jet has finished in front of Roy H which was in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, but XY Jet has also never won a G1 before, failing in all 3 of his G1 attempts. Both Whitmore and Imperial hint have shown an improvement over their 2017 forms which makes them both logical contenders in this years Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but Roy H has still defeated both of them in the past and that should not be overlooked. As for new challengers Promises Fulfilled and Limousine Liberal, both are scheduled to be cross entered in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but assuming they run in the sprint are they a threat to Roy H? Yes, plain and simple. I actually think all five of these horses scheduled to run against Roy H this year are legit contenders in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint, BUT I now ask you “How is this any different from 2017?”
In 2017 the deck was stacked against Roy H, and again in 2018 the deck appears to be stacked against him, but even with a stacked deck I am BUYING that Roy H can go back to back in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.