Buy or Sell: Accelerate
Accelerate will be the morning line and most likely the post time favorite in the upcoming Breeders Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, but is he worth the hype? With a quick glance at Accelerates 2018 record I’m sure many of you are saying “Vinny you are crazy for questioning him” and to that I say let me explain.
Yes I know Accelerate is 6/7 this year with his lone loss being a 2nd place finish. Yes I know he is a perfect 3-3 in 2018 going 1-1/4th, and yes I know Accelerate has won 4 G1’s in 2018. I am taking nothing away from Accelerate, personally I am a fan, BUT I believe he is a very beatable favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
In Accelerate’s first 5 starts of 2018 he posted a record of 5-4-1-0 and beat the likes of Mubtaahij, City of Light, Dr. Dorr, and Pavel. Now taking nothing away from any of these 4 horses, but all are not in the same league as Accelerate going the classic distance…
Mubtaahij while he is consistent, he has never been a top tier G1 horse as his lone career G1 win was against a very suspect field in the 2017 Awesome Again.
City of Light who is the only horse so far this year to beat Accelerate is one of the top sprinters, but is not a distance horse. Yes he beat Accelerate in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap in April going 1-1/8th, but that is City of Light’s lone win going over 1 mile and is not a top tier horse going farther then 1 mile.
Dr. Dorr who yes he is a G2 winner, but is just a class below the top classic distance horses. He has attempted to run against some of the top class distance horses in his last 4 races and does have a pair of 2nds, but finished an open length 2nd in both efforts and was never a threat to win either race.
Pavel freaked earlier this year in the G1 Stephen Foster, but he is another one like Mubtaahji who while a G1 winner, his G1 win came against a suspect field and while consistent, just not a top tier horse.
Now getting into Accelerates most recent races, first the Pacific Classic. Accelerate dominated the Pacific Classic, no questioning that, but again he beat the likes of Pavel and Dr. Dorr. It is important to remember though that this was Pavel’s first race since his G1 win the Stephen Foster where he posted career numbers. From a handicapping perspective, Pavel was bound to come back to earth after that effort. So yes Accelerate dominated a G1, but against pretty much the same horses he had beaten up on in his first 5 starts. Again, yes the win was impressive, but it was against horses who are just not in his league.
Looking at the Awesome Again, this was the first time all year Accelerate faced a new challenger who has been considered to be in the same league. Yes Accelerate beat West Coast, but it is important to look at the context of this race. First, this was only a prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic for both horses, but second and more importantly, this was West Coast’s first start in 6 months, and was his first North American start in 8 months. I can hear some of you saying “Why does this matter, Accelerate still won by open lengths” and yes Accelerate still won, but his win in the Awesome Again looked much different than his previous 5 wins in 2018. For the first time in 2018, Accelerate had to really battle and yes he did win this time, but West Coast, a horse who had not run in a race since March, made him work for it which to me is a huge Red Flag. If Accelerate had to be all out to beat a horse who was coming off a 6 month layoff, then how is he going to fair against other top class horses who are entering the Breeders’ Cup Classic ready to go?
Buy or Sell Accelerate in the Breeders’ Cup Classic? SELL, final answer.
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