Race 1: 5-4-7
#5 EL PLAYON ran second the last two tries at this maiden 12,500 level. Likes the mile distance it appears. Seems to be the one to beat. #4 WATCH YOUR STEP didn’t run much last time out but I figure he will be on the lead and if he gets a good pace scenario they will need to catch him late. #7 ZULIANO gets a surface switch, class drop and blinkers added. Hasn’t done much running in his three lifetime races but maybe some change will wake him up.
Race 2: 1-3-4
#1 MAXIMUM SECURITY likely odds on choice here. Not trying to beat him. This 3yo is 2 for two with a combined winning margin of over 16 lengths. Top rider Irad for the Servis barn who is winning at 46% this meet. #3 FIRST AND THREE gets a cutback to 7f from a mile for a barn that is 32% with this move. Gaffalione rides this one who has a last race Beyer identical to the likely heavy favorite. #4 STAR PLAYER might not be good enough to win against these but he most likely will be sending to the lead and could run a big one if he gets the right pace set up. He goes out for the leading Navarro barn.
Race 3: 3-2-1
#3 ELLA BROWN makes her first turf start after 3 consecutive third place finishes going 6 panels on the dirt. Should show early speed and could find herself on the lead for this cutback in distance. A couple nice workouts in preparation for today’s race. #2 DADDY’S MELODY goes second off the layoff and cuts back in distance. Has good enough speed figures to win compared to the field. #1 MEETMEONLINE weakened late in both tries at a mile on the turf. The cutback to 5f might be what’s needed to keep this horse around at the finish line. Has good tactical speed.
Race 4: 2-3-4
#2 PORTAL has the best speed figures of the group. His race last time out was very solid. Ships across state to try the one turn mile. He’s in for his lowest tag yet. The one to beat but wouldn’t take too low of a price here. #3 HOLLYWOOD STAR was on the derby trail last year and is graded stakes placed. He has a lot of back class but his form of late is not good. First time in for a tag as this horse could not beat winners in the allowance ranks. Class drop will help. #4 POSITIVIST stretches out to a mile and should show some speed early. Worries me that his only win was in the slop but this lightly raced gelding might improve second off the layoff and second off the ship down from up north.
Race 5: 3-1-5
#3 HONOLULU EXPRESS figures to be a heavy favorite. Claimed last time after his second straight win at the 25k level on his only two tries on turf. Hard to look past this one. #1 MARCELINO has had two tries on turf similar to the aforementioned and has run decent enough both times. Ran third last time to the 3 horse here. #5 HOLLYWOOD OVERDOGS might be a bit of a stretch here but ran okay a few starts back against the 3 horse. Looks to prefer the turf and has ran okay at this distance.
Race 6: 1-2-5
#1 THE MIGHTY JUDGE comes in second off the layoff and a drop to the 12,500 maiden claiming level. Blinkers seemed to help last time. This seems to be the spot where he gets its done. His form is very solid and will be the one to beat. #2 TROPICAL TAPISTRY has been knocking on the door at this level and ran very willingly in the last few tires. Will likely be around at the finish. #5 FIGHTINIRISHTABIT might be best used underneath. This 0-14 maiden runs decent races every time but has not shown the needed kick late to find the winners circle.
Race 7: 7-4-1
#7 WILLING TO SPEED might offer some value. I don’t think the favorites are a lock here so I’m trying to catch a price. This colts only race at today’s distance was a winning one. Race two back was a key race as a few of the runners came back to run well in starter stakes this past weekend. This horse has a good closing run and Jose Ortiz runs well in the limited mounts he gets from the Kimmel barn. #4 FOREVER MO ran a stellar race last time and came back fast on the Beyer charts. The added distance might help and any improve makes him a contender. #1 COLLINS AVE has run two good races in his only two starts. Horse was running well late last time at a mile and gets the added distance today where he came up just short first time out.
Race 8: 4-2-7
#4 BEAUTIFUL LOVER looks to be the one to beat. Chad is great with horses making their second start and this one exits last race with a decent performance and a good speed figure. #2 SUN SUMMERS goes second time long on the grass and should improve. Ran a good second last time however it was vs. maiden claimers. Takes a step up here but looks to be a possible play at a big price. #7 UNCAPTURED ANGEL might need a race here, but the horse has posted a few good works in preparation for her debut. Trainer is doing well and Samuel rides at a high percentage for this barn with his limited mounts. Would use underneath.
Race 9: 1-5-9
#1 LONG BLADE makes his first start since last spring, but if he can regain his form or improve on the switch to the dirt, he might be a longshot contender. #5 DUNK goes route to sprint in which the Marragh barn is winning at 40% with this move. Fourth try at this level after failing as the favorite in the last two. Seems like a good spot to break the nw2 condition. #9 VALDOCCO takes a suspicious drop to the 12.5 level after running very poorly off a long layoff. If he can get back to his previous form he will win. Not willing to take that chance at a likely short price.
Race 10: 10-9-4
#10 BAND OF ANGELS is 4 of 6 at 5f on the turf. Has been favored in her last 7 races. She’s a quick horse that deserves to go off favored again. The Navarro barn cannot be left off tickets. #9 SALT POND has some speed and she gets back to the grass after running well at this level; however, it was in the slop. #4 ALL ABOUT STELLA has yet to beat winners but has strung a few solid efforts together at this level.
Race 11: 9-8-5
#9 OVERLEVERAGED drops from MSW to MCL for a barn who is 42% with this move. Adds blinkers and gets Javier Castellano to ride. Might be overlooked in the wagering as he has yet to be competitive. Taking a shot. #8 COME ON VENEZUELA has been right there but just can’t seem to get the job done. Races against similar foes today and will need to improve slightly to win. #5 TWISTED LICORICE gets a slight class drop and returns to the lawn where he has done his best running. Lost to a few of today’s challengers but the race was off the turf.