Hello Racing fans, it’s only a few days until 2019, but before you start making those New Year’s Resolutions, we got one more Thursday of Racing from Gulfstream in 2018 to look at. Last week we had 3 on top winners, although it didn’t add up to a positive ROI overall. Let’s finish out 2018 in style!
RACE 1: 8-7-2
8-UNTRUE has won 3 of her last 4, including last out at a similar level vs Florida breds on December 5th here at today’s distance by 4 lengths. I think he’ll be sitting right behind early pacesetter Southernperfection, who could be dangerous with Blinkers on if she gets clear early, but at 3-1 ML seems like a gigantic underlay. 7-Bella Vincenza disappointed in the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper last out but had won 4 of 5 before that. Will be closing strong late. 2-Miss Contessa has finished behind both of top two selections in her last few races, but disregarding her last in the Glass Slipper, had 4 straight ITM finishes and 6 of last 7. The last time Jose Ortiz rose her was back in March to a neck triumph in an $10K OC.
RACE 2: 2-8-4
I don’t normally take horses that are making turf debut, especially against some already accomplished, but I like the chances of 2-RICHEST GIFTS, and at 12-1 ML, he could be my ‘Richest Gift’ of the day. Has disappointed his last three races, so the move to turf could be searching for a niche for this 3 year old gelding, but his breeding suggests he’s well equipped for grass. His Sire Dominus hits a respectable 14% first time on turf, his damsire, the legendary Storm Cat, was an even better 18% with debuting turfers. His Dam Reem Al Barari Has had 4 turf winners among her 8 racing foals. 8-I’m Cardinal was no match for $25K OC last out, which broke a 3 race win streak, including a couple of triumphs at the $16K level.Will probably be just off the early leader(s) waiting to pounce. 4-Dance Proudly has some back speed that could put this 8 year old gelding up front early. Makes 2nd start for El Chapo, I mean Jorge Navarro (23%). Won a $25K OC two back at Indiana Grand before testing deeper waters in the Claiming Crown on turf last out.
RACE 3: 4-6-1
This is a race literally any of the 6 entered have a reasonable chance of winning. 4-BIMINI has never been in for a tag before today, but wouldn’t have fit the conditions of this race if not entered for claiming, so I’m thinking it’s a matter they feel this is the right spot for her. Won a $75K OC two back before contending early last time out in the Hut Hut before weakening. Hoping the class drop and cutback of a furlong helps. 6-Creedibility has finished 2nd her last two versus similar but seems to be a plodding sort. 1-Miss Harry broke her maiden last out after being dropped from MSW and comes in off a bullet 4 furlong work on the 20th.
RACE 4: 5-4-6
5-KAYLIE’S GIRL graduated 2 back, had actually crossed the wire first three back but was disqualified, then faced this level last out where she contended early before fading while in tight. Thinking she could be overlooked today based on that performance, so we could get a nice price on s horse that was 4.1/1 vs field of 10 last out. 4-Paola moves down multiple levels while going turf to dirt for Larry Pilotti (25%). 6-Enigmatica has a couple of place finishes vs today’s level in her last two but not sure the pace projection today will help this off the pace type, especially at 5 1/2 furlongs.
RACE 5: 9-6-8
Tough MC $50K to figure out, I took a flyer on FTS 9-JUST CHILL, who has posted several turf works leading to this and though a very limited sample, Trainer Angel Penna Jr is 3/12 with FTS and her Dam has produced a turf winner from her 3 starters. Jose Ortiz is about for her debut. 6-Uncommon Factor made a mid race move to the front before settling for 2nd last time out at $35K level, I’m guessing that makes them confident here moving up to $50K. 8-It’s Complicated has not fared well in three career starts but had a legitimate excuse last out as she clipped heels and bumped.
RACE 6: 7-8-2
7-SAN DIEGO SLUGGER struggled versus $25K claimer last out but his races 2-3 back were both very good, resulting in breaking his maiden and s 2nd place effort vs $16K level. His win was at today’s 7 furlong distance. 8-Flat Out Flying won his debut easily and was transferred to the David Fawkes stable. Was pulled up in his last effort but has come back with 4 straight works. Should be a nice price. 2-Nomad is a FT Gelding, goes turf to dirt and faces winners for the first time for Chad Summers.
RACE 7: 1-7-12
It’s tough to go against a horse that has won its last 6 and has never been out of the exacta on turf in 7 tries, especially when I think it’s possible you may get a decent price on him, but 1-CAPTAIN GAUGHEN for Jason Servis is doing good in his own right, winning 3 of his last 4. Servis hitting 50% so far at the meet, and wins a third of the time off long layoffs. His partnership with Irad Ortiz has produced 11 winners their last 23 times teaming up. Should be coming off the pace, which admittedly is s concern from the rail. 7-Gran Malbec is the aforementioned 6 race win streak holder, including last out at a level similar to this. Will be gunning out there early but this is a big field and should face a challenge early on. I mention this every week but the combo of Barboza and Jaramillo is just downright lethal (57%). 12-Dudley is no doubt the potential value of this race, aside from his last try has been ITM his last few sprinting on turf, which includes two stakes races. Is another who will be running late. I do want to briefly mention both the 9-Bushrod and the 11-Griff. Bushrod has faced tougher than today and may enjoy the class relief, but seems a major underlay at 5-2. Griff is a 7 year old making turf debut after 22 career starts. Her Dam stats suggest he may have potential there, just wonder why it took so long to try turf.
RACE 8: 7-5-3
I almost feel guilty landing on the ML Favorite here, but I really like the cutback from 2 turns to 1 for 7-AERIAL ASSAULTS, who has shown speed going two turns and now goes 7 furlongs for only the second time in her career. 5-True Boots is first off the claim for Jorge Navarro (26%) and adds blinkers (27%). Emisael Jaramillo rides for the first time. 3-Focused has been ITM her last 4 races and will be coming from off the pace.
RACE 9: 9-10-7
The feature race today is a $62.5K OC going two turns on turf for Fillies and Mares. Though she has never been 2 turns, there’s no denying the talent of 8-FAIRYLAND, who was 2nd versus a similar level last time seen at Kentucky Downs. Will be very close to the early pace probably. 10-Volatility Index hasn’t raced in almost a year and s half, but that seems to be one of Chad Brown’s strengths(28% off long layoffs). Was 3rd at today’s level when last seen at Saratoga, beaten just a half length. Has never been out of the money in 4 career races, and like top choice will probably be a pace presence early on. 7-Sanity will probably be coming off the pace under Paco Lopez, who won B’s a similar level 6 months ago at Woodbine going 6 furlongs. May benefit from what looks to be a faster than normal early pace.
RACE 10: 1-4-3
The finale is a MSW for soon-to-be 3 year olds going 8.5 panels, AKA 1 1/16 miles. 1-MALIBU RAINBOW was 3rd in her second career race last out, her first at two turns and should benefit on being able to save ground here drawing rail on the very short run into the first turn. Trainer Saffie Joesph off to a great start this meet, winning with almost a third of his entries. 4-Makealittlemischief was 2nd in debut here back in May, going 4 1/2 furlongs. Was the 4/5 favorite that day, and hasn’t been seen since until today. Pletcher, like Chad Brown, excels off long layoffs, striking at a 31% rate. He’s 27% with horses routing for first time. 3-Web o’ Gold has finished in the bridesmaid position 4 out of 5 tries and should be stalking the early pace, though I’m not exactly sure who that will be.