Hello Horse Racing fans and welcome to Thursday #2 of the Gulfstream Championship Meet! Last week was a pretty good way to start, going 10-2-2-3 with one of those top pick winners being $29 winner Call Me Kayla in Race 5. Also remember not one of the top selections last week ended up as the betting favorite and only two were 2nd choice in the betting. However, this is a marathon and you’re only as good as your last bets. Let’s dig in to today’s card!
RACE 1: 2-1-7
We start out today’s card with a 1 Mile event for $25K two year old claimers. Several different ways one could land here in my opinion, I ended up on 2-ORGANIC JENNY, who won at the $16K level last out and aside from being sent 2 turns in a restricted stakes and a $100K turf stakes, has ran well the other 3 starts. Though his style has been to come from off the pace, I believe he’ll be stalking today from about:Ed or 4th early on behind 1-Star Player, 7-Vampa, and possibly 3-Our Pride. 1-Star Player could be in front early and is another exiting a win in his last outing, an impressive 9 3/4 length triumph at today’s distance. If the horses putting blinkers on don’t show early speed here to challenge, will be a big threat to go gate to wire. 7-Vampa adds blinkers for Anthony Pecoraro, who is an impressive 9 of last 24 doing FT Blinks. His last two speed figures are good enough to win this, but both were accomplished 2 turns on off tracks and also at Parx and Delaware, where the inflated figures are always suspect.
RACE 2: 9-5-1
Another race for 2 year olds, this one a $12.5K maiden claiming event. To me, you either sided with probable favorite 5-Aqua Gem, or you could have landed on any of the other 8 horses because at first glance there doesn’t appear to be much separation in them. Had a difficult time with this race, but I came to the conclusion there was enough doubt to the favorite for me to find a reasonable alternative. 9-NOW IT’S MINE had her first start on dirt last time out after three previous tries on turf. Was also first time trying Lasix, and ran a credible 3rd of 12, beaten 5 lengths at 5 1/2 furlongs. I’m banking on the added distance plus maybe an improvement with 2nd time Lasix can push this fully to a score today.5-Aqua Gem was less than a length in debut from breaking maiden, and that was after bumping at the start. However two things should be noted; 1) that was a two turn mile at GP West as opposed to today’s 1 turn mile 2) was ran on a sloppy track. As I said, there’s enough doubt here to not automatically assume she wins, yet can’t be ignored if for no other reason than there isn’t a lot to like elsewhere.1-Good Catch Lexi did nothing in debut and goes turf to dirt, plus drops from $35 MC. Hey somebody has to finish 3rd.
RACE 3: 2-3-6
These races aren’t getting easier, honestly. And I realize that my top selection almost goes exactly against the reason I didn’t take Aqua Gem last race. 2-COURAGE AND HONOR has broken his maiden and a clear 2nd versus tougher in his two starts since switching to dirt, however both were over sloppy, sealed tracks. However, I’m willing to believe he can transfer that good form to fast dirt. Considering the other logical contenders in here are 1 for 17 and 1 for 31, I’m willing to trust my instincts here. Jockey Brian Hernandez is off to a slow start this meet but I don’t see that lasting. 3-Overly Sensual has never been out of the money in 5 starts and is the probable favorite here today. Has ran best here at GP, but his propensity for runner-up finishes is somewhat concerning, enough to find a viable alternative against.6-Juan and Bina is 1 for 31 lifetime but does figure to contain for an exotics spot here today. As you can see, none of these first three races are loaded with depth at the contender spot.
RACE 4: 5-7-1
And these races aren’t getting any easier are they, especially with a lack of solid contenders to choose from. 5-ENIGMATICA was 2nd vs today’s level in her first try vs $6,250 n2l, made a 4 wide move but was no match for winner that day. 7-Blue Whale has not been competitive her last 2 but last was on turf and before that was rank and broke at the start. Before that raced vs tougher. 1-Scorched Earth has good early speed and may be in front early. Has a pair of 3rds her last two vs today’s level.
RACE 5: 5-16-1
Huge field for this 5 furlong sprint but I have a feeling I landed on the favorite. 5-TEAK is in for a tag for the first time for Christophe Clement(24%) and is 2nd off the layoff. Has good early speed and from the 5 post should have options early. 16-Thorpe D’oro, should he draw in, will be making first start in almost a year and first as a gelding. First start for Trainer Antonio Sano. Should be up near the front early on.1-Silver Wings Raven is another who will likely be forwardly placed. Won his last outing but that was 4 months ago and it was an off turf event. Nonetheless, has shown good turf form in his past.
RACE 6: 4-3-6
Interesting MSW here for soon to be 3 year old fillies going 6 furlongs. Only 2 of the 9 entered here have a race under their belt, and neither’s debut inspired confidence. 4-QUEEN OF BEAS is a FTS for Jorge Abreu (19%) and her Dam has produced 6 winners from 7 starters. Has some nice works leading into debut. 3-Just Ain’t Right is a FTS for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez, the Dam is a perfect 2 for 2 with her goals to have raced. Her sire Yes It’s True is 14% with her first timers. 6-Ms. Maximum is also a FTS for Pletcher, and hot sire Violence is an impressive 22% with debuters.
RACE 7: 7-1-3
This n3L claimer actually was pleasant to handicap, as there are a few decent horses in here. While Bogulator seems to be the now horse here and has ran back to back 89 speed figures in her two race win streak, thinking the Trainer change isn’t a positive, plus I think there’s a few horses that will keep her honest on the front end. 7-QUEEN ROSE won last out rather easily in a beaten claimer by over 4 lengths. Her last 4 races she has ran well except for two back when she stumbled at the start, but was still within 2 lengths at the finish. Trainer Antonio Sank is 20% in claim repeaters.1-Arch Of Troy has been very competitive at this level her last few races and will be stalking the pace from the rail today with Luis Saez guiding her.
RACE 8: 2-1-4
I really tried to find a way to beat 2-WHAT ABOUT TONIGHT in here, but honestly no one else inspired any confidence in me that they had a reasonable chance to win, so I ended up on the favorite. Don’t get me wrong, she’s not without flaws here, but on paper she should handle this group. She comes off a win at Penn National at the $16K level and now “drops” to $12.5K today(most would argue it’s not really a drop, considering the venues). Trainer Jorge Navarro is 11 of his last 24 dropping off of a win. Doesn’t have the greatest record here at GP(4-0-0-2) but has 3 wins at today’s Mile distance.1-Royal Asscher comes in off a couple months rest and is making her first start at Gulfstream. On paper, if she’s at her best is a strong contender in here, unfortunately she’s not been at her best that often. Plus the distance is a concern. 4-Magalie drops in class big time for Patrick Biancone and will probably be showing early speed. Has won two OC’s this year vs much tougher.
RACE 9: 2-6-4
Once again I landed on the favorite here, 2-SALT POND. I don’t see anyone matching her speed early, and I think she goes gate to wire today in her first start for Kathleen O’Connell(19%). 6-Dahlonega did little in her last outing vs similar to today’s group but was bet like she was supposed to (3.2/1) and 2 back did score an easy win vs $30K beaten claimers. With her current trainer 0 for 33 for the year, you might be able to get a good price here if you like her to rebound.
RACE 10: 4-5-9-11