Hello fellow horseplayers and racing fans. I am extremely excited and grateful for the opportunity to be a contributor to The Daily Gallop. I look forward to sharing with you my picks and some of the thinking that goes into them. For those who may want to know; I consider myself a hybrid handicapper. I take into consideration many factors with an emphasis on trip handicapping, pace and any angles that may be in play. Along with the PP’s and Charts, I spend a lot of time watching race replays, taking trip notes for future reference, and looking for the next winner. I believe this style of handicapping can allow me to piece together how a race may unfold and set up my picks accordingly. So lets get started!
Sunday at Gulfstream offers a nice 11 race card featuring 6 races on the Turf and 5 on the dirt. However, there is a chance of some wet weather and with that comes the possibility of some races being moved to the main track from the turf. I will try and update my Twitter (@LuckLefty71) with any changes that may come about with my picks.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming $12,500 5 Furlongs on Turf for Ages 3 and up.
This is a 12-horse field with a possible “AE” 13 and a “MTO” 14.
The Morning Line favorite is the 3 King Of Rock. This 3-year-old colt has 2 races under his belt, neither of which were in the money finishes and I’m not sure he gets it done here. In both of his races he has shown some early speed and what seems like a real need to be in the front. The problem here is he is not the only one with this style and speed. It doesn’t look like there are any early speed challengers inside him so he should be able to get to the rail, but he will soon have company once there, and I look for a speed duel. For me, the play here is to take a chance with the 8 Thenextbestthing. Even though he is coming off a 7-month layoff, his running style, speed on turf and class rating bolds well. He will have to overcome an outside post position at this 5-furlong distance, but the race sets up nicely inside him for him to do just that. I like the 7 Storm The Bridge and the 11 Happy Danza to also finish strong here. I’m on the 7 for much of the same reasons I like the 8 and the 11 who has a similar style, was bumped at the start last time out and still finished 5th on a sloppy dirt track, I look for improvement here going back to turf and hopefully a better trip.
My Picks- 8,7,11
Race 2- Maiden Special Weight 5 Furlongs on Turf for 2 Year Old’s
This is an 8-horse field if it stays on the turf. There are 3 MTO entries set to go if moved to the main track.
This race is packed full of first-time starters which always makes a handicapper’s job a bit more difficult, however there are some entries with remarkably interesting turf pedigrees. After a deep look and consideration, I am leaning towards the 11 The Zip Factor as my favorite here. She definitely has the breeding that points towards success on grass at this distance, and on top of that this trainer and jockey combo is winning at a 32% clip with a positive ROI. My other picks are going to be the 7 Kodiak Mamba. This Irish bred and Mark Casse conditioned runner looks like the real deal, as much as a first-time starter can, I look for an in the money finish here. 3 Campanelle will finish off my picks if the race stays on the Turf. Another Irish bred that I like for much of the same reasons as the 7 and with the combo of Nick Juarez and Wesley Ward landing In The Money 54% you have to like her chances here. If this race is moved to the main track, for me it’s got to be the 1 Shan’s Tiger. This Wesley Ward trained Fillie has the makeup of a strong contender at this distance and her Dam has 6 winners from 10 starters, including 3 stakes winners.
My Picks- 11,7,3
Race 3- Claiming $16,000 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 Year Old’s and upward
This is a 7-horse field.
The morning line favorite for this race is the 3 Examiner at 2/1. I believe this has some holes in it and is a vulnerable favorite to be targeted. The 3 is coming off of a 4-month layoff to land smack dab in the middle of a race ran at a distance he’s never ran before. I’m leaning towards the 1 Makabim to get it done here and if the 8/1 ML holds close it should pay well. In his last 3 recent starts he has gotten off poorly and still managed to finish second, fifth (a poor start in this race cost him at least 4 lengths) and first against similar company. When watching replays, it appears that he may be a bit faster than his speed figures show and his running style of being able to come off the pace may set up well here. My other plays are the 5 Aequor who drops down in class today as well as dropping 1/16 mile in distance from his last start, this is an angle I like to see. I have a longshot play here as well with the 4 Shanghai Moon at a ML of 10/1. Like the 1, he can come off the pace, but he may be a bit more of a stalker. Even though there is no real “Need The Lead” speed types in this event I feel that it still will unfold in favor of a good closing horse to win.
My Picks-1,5,4
Race 4- Maiden Claiming $16,000 6 Furlongs on Dirt 3 years old and upward
This is an 8-horse field.
This race definitely has plenty of the early speed types that do well here, and I think the race unfolds pretty much as one may expect. With that said, I am going with the ML favorite 7 Kozy Dreams at 2/1 in which I figure as a moderate closer. Early pace wise she is right in the middle with plenty of mid and late pace to get the job done against this field. My only concern with her is that she topped out speed wise last time out and may have a setback here, but her class and power numbers suggest otherwise. The 3 Chillin Lady also looks to be in contention in this one and will probably be one of the pace setters early on. If she gets a good trip and can be rated a bit, she could hang on for a nice finish. One of my favorite angles is to find a quality horse dropping in class and coming 2 or 3 off a layoff, the 1 Little Miss Macho fits that bill perfectly. Add in the fact that the rail is winning at 18% and that puts the 1 on my radar and into my picks.
My Picks-7,3,1
Race 5- Maiden Claiming $12,500 % Furlongs on Turf 3 years old and upward
This is a 12-entry race with 3 other “AE” standbys
This is a typical 5 furlong grass affair at Gulfstream, with a good mix of possibilities. After much deliberation I landed on the 8 Cold Warrior as my favorite and I will go with this if I can get him at his 5/2 ML or better. I think he is right where he needs to be to win here and several factors are in his favor, including that he only lost by 2 lengths last time out after being brushed at the start. My other picks for this race are going to be 4 Maquiavelo and the 6 Makinglegacy. The 4 has been impressive the last two times out with a second and third at this exact distance. He will also have a hot jockey up with Joseph Trejos putting up 5 wins and 1 place in the past 7 days. The 6 in my opinion will be overlooked by most bettors here. At a ML of 20/1 he comes back to a Turf sprint from a 4th place finish at 1 mile on dirt, in which he went 4 wide on the turn and didn’t have enough kick late. Another angle worth noting with the 6 is this jockey/trainer combo has a +23% ROI finishing in the money 33% of the time.
My Picks- 8,4,6
Race 6- Maiden Special 6 Furlongs on Dirt 3-year old’s and upward
There are 8 horses in this race
This race has 2 first time starters along with a couple coming off quite long layoffs. I had some long hard looks at both the 4 and the 6 as I liked their pace figures. After watching them head to head in their matchup from 04/26/20, I believe that my nod will go to the 6 Tara. Not only because she got the better of it between the two last time out, but she holds a significant speed and class edge. The horses on the rail in this event are both first time starters and I’m not sure what the pace there will be, but for my money the 6 gets it done at a ML of 9/2 or close to it. I think the 4 Starship Voyager will be there in the end as well and will be back in the money. Her 5-furlong workout on 05/23 points to a fit and ready fillie. I’m going to take a long shot play here as well with the 3 Tiz Enough at 15/1 ML. I like the fact she’s returning to a sprint on dirt after a 5th place showing in a 1-mile turf race. Her ability to rally a bit late may bold well here if there is some real early speed from the unknowns.
My Picks- 6,4,3
Race 7- Claiming $16,000 1 1/16 Mile on Turf for 3-year old’s
This race has 12 entries
Your morning line favorite is going to be the 9 Lady Noguez at 7/2. I have to agree here as she is perfect for this race and is in top form. There is not much more that I can add to bolster her already impressive credentials, but I do believe she’s going to have some unexpected company down the stretch and at the wire. My next pick in this one is going to the 12 Miss My Macho. Following a win last time out, she is dropping in class rather mysteriously here, but trainer Katherine Ritvo is 100% when dropping off of a win. The 1 Babybel at a ML of 20/1 has a pace style and closing factor that I really like on these turf route races. I believe she will have something for this field late and may end up with a finish in the money, definitely worth a look at this price if it holds.
My Picks- 9,12,1
Race 8- Optional Claiming $50,000 6 Furlongs on Dirt 4-year old’s and upwards
This is a 6-horse field
I’m tempted here to go with the 4 Where Paradise Lay because I really like his running style and his last 2 speed figures have been impressive, but I’m going in a different direction here with the 1 Frosted Grace. Much like the 4, I also like his running style and ability to be moderate closer in a race that sets up nicely for him to have another strong finish. My other picks here are the 2 Royal Squeeze and the 6 Belle Tapisserie. The 2 will look to get started quickly and move to the rail, getting no beef there from the 1 horse who will set up to be just behind the pace in my opinion. The 6 will be interesting to watch here as he is returning from a 2-month layoff and looks to be a factor from the outside.
My Picks- 1,2,6
Race 9- Claiming $16,000 5 Furlongs on Turf 3 Year Old’s and upward
It is hard to find a chink in the favorite in this race. The 6 Overnight Success certainly has a lot going for him here, including a 2nd place finish against a tougher field last time out. He was the favorite last time and may well have won if not for a hard bump at the break. The ML has him at 8/5 and while that may seem short to some, I believe it’s as it should be. I’m not having trouble finding value in my other picks in this race though. I like the 3 Centerfold prospect at a ML of 12/1 and the 9 Congrats Shadow at 3/1. The 3 is dropping both in class and in distance which is an angle I love. The 9 moving up in class but is coming off a win that was nicely done.
My Picks-6,3,9
Race 10- Claiming $16,000 6 Furlongs on Dirt 3-year old’s and upward
This event has 8 horses listed
This is another race with an obvious favorite that is reflected in the ML for the 6. I’m not going in that direction here however, because I believe there are more contenders that offer much better prices. I favor the 1 Krammy Boy here with a ML of 4/1 and a spot on the rail which is spitting out winners at almost 19%. His 2cnd call to finishing call ratio, which I call the Closing Factor, is at 1.66 and puts him as a Sustained Closer in my notes. I arrive at this number by taking the past 5 races (at the same surface and distance if possible) adding together the 2cnd call positions for each, adding the last 5 finishing positions and then dividing the 2nd call by the Finishing call. Now that I’ve put you to sleep, I’ll try and wake you up with why I like this angle, It’s simple and it works! It can be a very useful way to uncover some hidden winners especially in races where early speed can be a factor. My other choices are the 3 Mr. Cesco who is returning to a sprint as well as to the dirt, and the 2 Game Boy Benny. I like the 2 for many of the same reasons as the 1 and I believe the nice 4-furlong workout on 05/23 points to a fit prospect ready to go.
My Picks-1,3,2
Race 11- Claiming $30,000 1 Mile on Turf 3-year old’s and upward
This race offers a 10-horse field
This race includes 4 runners who have never ran a route and a couple that have never been on grass. The Morning Line favorite is going to be the 9 La Cara Bonita which would not be a bad choice at all except in her last time out she weakened when it counted running a speed below the average winning speed of this race. That coupled with the fact that there is a lot of speed inside her makes her a bit vulnerable in my opinion. I’m going with the 6 Bramble Bay here for a few reasons but mainly because I believe the pace of the race will set up nicely for a horse with strong middle and late pace figures to finish strong. The 6 is also coming 2 off a layoff and dropping in class which is an enticing angle in my opinion. My other pick here are 10 Glorious Gal and the 2 Rosa Star. The 10 is adding blinkers today which is usually a plus in my book. I also liked the way she ran last time out, overcoming some early trouble and still finishing 3rd. The trip notes say she weakened but they don’t tell the entire story, there was a bump at the start that cost her at least a couple of lengths. The 2 will be at a good price if the ML holds around 8/1. Though she hasn’t raced in over 40 days, she is dropping in distance and has shown good speed on turf. She finished 2nd last time out and if she can be rated just a bit here has a good chance to finish in the money.
My Picks- 6,10,2
Thanks for allowing me to share my thoughts and picks with you. I hope you all have a very productive day at the track. Good Luck!
Phil Maynard
@LuckyLefty71