Hello Horseplayers and racing fans! Back in action today at Gulfstream with what looks like a nice competitive 11 Race card. There are five Turf races scheduled along with six on the main track. The 10th race features a nice allowance field ready to battle it out over 1 1/16 mile on the turf. It should be a great day of racing. So, let’s get started!
Race 1- 1 Mile Claiming race on the Dirt for 3 year old’s and upward which have never won three races
Your morning line favorite in this one is going to be the 9 Third Army and I can’t argue too much with this one. After being bumped at the start last time out, which in my estimation cost him at least a couple of lengths, he finished strong and came up for show against a similar field. I like his chances here. My other picks are going to be the 6 London Werewolf and a little longer play with the 3 Bold Paynter at a ML of 10/1. The 6 has a great speed to pace ratio for this distance in my opinion and the strongest pedigree in the field. Although the 6 is moving up just a bit in class I think he is in good form and should have a strong outing. The 3 may be one of those entries that gets overlooked a bit and goes off at a nice price. He is moving down just a bit in class and also moving to a dirt track. Trainer Cheryl Winebaugh is considered to be a top trainer here and should have the 3 ready to go. I like his running style, although mostly ran on turf I think he could fir in well here and finish in the money.
Race 1 Picks- 9,6,3
Race 2- 5 Furlongs Maiden Claimer on Dirt for Fillies 2 years old
We have 5 first time starters in a field of 7 in this one. Although there looks like some talent in the first time starters here, I’m going to go with a second time starter as my favorite. I really like the 7 Little Nesso and I believe this could be a very good price play. In her first start, she was bumped at the start and struggled finishing 6th out of 9. In watching the replay, I did see some things I liked and I do like the chance for improvement second time out, which is an angle that I have had good success with in the past. My other picks here are going to be the 4 Rock With Robin, who is also making her second start, and the 3 Katiesdreamgirl with Jarmillo in the saddle. The 4 should improve in her second start. She was clipped a bit from behind last time out and that played a factor in where she finished in my opinion. The 3 has enough going in the pedigree department coupled with the strong jockey to finish in the money here.
Race 2 Picks- 7,4,3
Race 3- 5 Furlongs Maiden Claimer on Dirt for 3 year old’s and upward.
This field has two first time starters out of eight entries. I like the 6 East Code. He has an early speed running style which does well here, and last time out made some noise going 3 wide but falling short at 6 ½ Furlongs. I think the shorter distance in this one is just what the Dr. ordered for the 6 and you should be able to get a decent price on him. I also really like the 5 Storm The Bridge. The return to dirt angle is a favorable one here as trainer Rohan Chrichton is at almost 20% turf to dirt. I also was impressed with the 5 on replay and his speed on dirt looks to be one of the best in this field not to mention that his best dirt speed is better that the average winning number in this race. I’m rounding out my three picks here with a long shot play on the 3 Big Gray’s Day. The 3 has yet to have a clean trip and is finally getting a repeat performance jockey with Trejos. I saw enough of this one to know he likes to get out early and I’m anxious to see him run a good clean race with no bumps or breaks. At a 30/1 ML I believe he is worth a shot, after all, that’s why they call it gambling.
Race 3 Picks- 6,5,3
Race 4- 5 Furlongs Claiming on Turf for 3 year old’s and upwards which have never won two races
If this one is moved to the main track then for me it’s got to be the 4 Captain Duke who is listed as MTO. Last time out he was put through the ringer early and still managed to finish 3rd at 6 furlongs. I believe the shorter distance would help him here and I like his running style. With that said however, if it stays on the Turf my pick is going to be 6 Deo Forte. I believe he faced a lot tougher field last time out and finished in the money. His speed figures at both this distance and surface are best in the field and I think he get’s it done here on the turf. My other picks are going to be the 9 Souper Shenanigan and the 2 Awesome Enough. The 9 has a really nice turf pedigree and is dropping in class here. He is also coming off of a 3rd place finish and has the right early running style to be extremely competitive in this one. The 2 is similar in running style and looks to be in top form, with a bullet workout number put up on 06/23. Trainer Ronald Spatz is also putting up a nice in the money percentage for turf starts at 36%.
Race 4 Picks- 6,9,2 – If moved to the Main track 4,6,2
Race 5 6 Furlongs Claiming on Dirt for 4 year old’s and upward
This one is kind of a no brainer for me, although I do hate to eat chalk. The 4 Jamaican is the one to beat here and I don’t think anyone in this field can accomplish that task. Too much speed, class, and trainer success to go against him here. The only question mark for me is the jockey, who is winless in 11 tries, but I think he puts up a “W” here. My other picks are going to be 5 Karen’s Cove and the 3 Black Pepper. The 5 is coming off of a 3rd place finish against a similar field and he does possess the highest speed figures at this distance. I also like the angle play of a 25% click that this trainer has beaten the favorite. At a 10/1 ML, you should be able to get a good price on the 3. He also has good speed but is a bit more of an off the pace threat. If there is a busted pace early the 3 could definitely come in and close shop.
Race 5 Picks- 4,5,3
Race 6- 1 Mile on Turf Maiden Special Wt. for Fillies and Mares 3 years old and upward
I like the 5 She’s Just Quality in this one. I believe she just ran out of room last time out and will benefit from the added distance here. She finished third last time after a stretch rally against a real similar field. My other picks are going to be the 7 Summer In The City and 8 Humor Me Dixie. It would be hard not to include the 7 in my picks considering that Pletcher is 50% going from Maiden Claiming to Maiden and the combo of Pletcher and jockey Zayas is on fire right now. I like the fact that the 8 us coming 3rd off of a layoff which usually means an improvement. She is trying a route distance for the first time but I believe trainer Mark Casse will have her in good condition and the 8 post and above are winning at a 20% mark this week.
Race 6 Picks- 5,7,8
Race 7- 1 1/16 Mile Claiming on Turf for 3 year old’s and upward which have never won three races.
This race has 12 runners entered with 4 others listed as AE’s. According to Brisnet, the favorites wins this race 50% of the time and finishes in the money at an impressive 75%. With that said however, I’m going with the 12 Mystical Moon who is not the ML favorite. I the way he finished his last race to finish 3rd and I believe the added 1/16 of a mile will help him here. My only concern is that he may have peaked speed wise last time out but I’m thinking that’s not the case. My other picks here are going to be the 11 I’m The Captain Now who should be the ML favorite at 5/2 and the 6 Devoted Kitten. The 11 is running it’s first race for new trainer Jose D’Angelo after being claimed last time out. D’Angelo is at 37% first after a claim and the 11 has the fastest Turf speed amongst the field. The 6 ran a nice race last time out in which he rallied to finish in the money against a similar field.
Race 7 Picks-12,11,6
Race 8- 1 Mile Claiming on Dirt for 3 year old’s and upward
My top pick is going to be the 5 Lure Him In. He is dropping a bit in class and coming off of a race that produced his highest speed rating and the highest dirt speed rating of all the entries. Add that to the way trainer Nicks and Jockey Jarmillo have been working together of late, and I think the 5 has a real shot to win this one, assuming he didn’t peak last time out and has a set back here. My other picks are going to be the 7 Genghis and the 2 Kid Drama. The 7 is the ML favorite and for good reason. He finished 2nd last time out after having some big trouble early and posting a very sharp 4 furlong workout on 06/20. The 2 has a style I like at this distance and is coming back to dirt after a long go of it on Turf. I also like the fact that the 2 is running his first after being claimed last time out, and the trainer Darien Rodriguez is 37% first after claims.
Race 8 Picks- 5,7,2
Race 9- 1 1/8 Mile Optional Claiming on Turf for 4 year old’s and upward.
I like the 2 Donji in this one. Besides having a great turf pedigree, he ran 2nd last time out and has won before at this distance and surface. Jockey Sammy Camacho has also been impressive finishing in the money 47% of the time. My other picks are going to be the 4 Fast Fire and the 1 Sharm El Sheikh. I like both of these horses for similar reasons with the 4 being a bit more of a stalker than the 1 and should benefit if these is a quick pace early that becomes a duel.
Race 9 Picks- 2,4,1
Race 10- 1 1/16 Mile Allowance on Turf for Fillies and Mares 3 years old and upward
The 6 Lovely Luvy is my top pick in this one. Watching the way, she finished in the money last time out impressed me, especially with the gain she made from 7th at second call to 4th in the stretch. This leads me to believe that she will benefit from an added distance here and what could be an early speed duel between others. I also like 2 Yesterdayoncemore and the 8 Drinks On Me. The 2 is coming down in class a bit and could also improve while returning to a route. She has had 4 months off however and that does raise a question or two, but I think she has the running style to do well here. The 8 is coming off a 2nd place finish where she pressed the issue early and just missed. If she can be rated just a bit here, I look for her to be there at the end as well.
Race 10 Picks- 6,2,8
Race 11- 1 Mile Claiming on Dirt for 4 year old’s and upward.
The 1 Il Faraone is my favorite for this one. I like the fact he’s coming down in class and coming off a win last time out. That is an angle I can’t pass up. Even though his speed figures are a bit lacking I think he has plenty of speed to win this one. I also like the 4 Areyoutalkingtome. The 4 just missed the money last time out and jockey Joseph Trejos is back up for another go on this 6 year old fillie. My last pick of the day is also my longest play of the day, the 5 Snap Hook, at a 15/1 ML. I saw a couple of things that I liked on film in the 5 and I do think there is something there. I think the 5 could catch both the bettors and the other entries a bit off guard here.
Race 11 Picks- 1,4,5
Good Luck Everyone! As always, I will have an eye on the weather and the turf races. If there are changes, I will try an update my Twitter Feed.