Another good card. I have decided to amend selections somewhat, with some top pick selections as “A”, selections based on my confidence level. Hopefully this can help readers key in on those I feel more strongly about.
“A” selections:
Race 5: #3 First Warrior
Race 6: #2 Queen of Beas
Race 7: #11 Bright Venezuelan
Race 10: #4 Attribute
Race 1:
#3 Memorize 5-2 ML
#4 R Lucky Dice 1-1 ML
#1 Rethinkme 9-2 ML
I liked a horse last Sunday with this same angle, speed and drop and the horse won nicely paying 5-2. I see #4 R Lucky Dice getting bet in here off the the higher profile connections, but #3 Memorize should be a strong 2nd choice and against similar 3 weeks back won going away by 3 lengths.
Race 2:
#1 Bring Joy 4-1 ML
#4 Padrinoneverquits 9-5 ML
#6 Blue Magic 6-1 ML
#1 Bring Joy should appreciate the drop to 25k off two lackluster efforts vs better. This one is better suited to 5.5 than the 2nd choice who may appreciate longer distances, but this looks like a two horse race on paper. #6 Blue Magic is intriguing off the good turf effort and ran in what looked to be a good MSW field at Ellis Park over the summer.
Race 3:
#4 Expect A Kitten 3-1 ML
#6 S S Illuminati 15-1 ML
#3 Maddys Salsa 5-1 ML
#4 Expect A Kitten has excuses in the last 4 (good turf, off turf, off turf, yielding turf), get top jock Saez and should appreciate ever bit of the mile and a sixteenth.
Race 4:
#6 Dunk 3-1 ML
#4 Emperor John 6-1 ML
#2 Interlaken 4-1 ML
#6 Dunk stretches out off a near miss sprinting last time out, and the last one going a mile was better than it looked against Florida bred stakes horses where he pressed the pace before folding late.
Race 5:
#3 First Warrior 4-1 ML
#8 JPs Pride 15-1 ML
#6 Belgrano 6-1 ML
#3 First Warrior goes first time turf for McLaughlin and LSaez, after returning off close to a year layoff last time in a race rained off the turf. That tells me that McLaughlin wanted to get this guy out of War Front to the turf after failing twice in very competitive MSW races. Avery Island was well on his way to the Derby before getting hurt, and even in the return off the turf race, he faced Identity Politics who ran 2nd in the Malibu on the 26th.
Race 6:
#2 Queen of Beas 5-2 ML
#1 Ebullient 7-2 ML
#7 Talkthetalk 6-1 ML
#2 Queen of Beas took a ton of steam first time out, and raced very greenly before straightening out late as the post time favorite in the debut. Will have to stomach 4-5 today, but this race looks short on talent and should be able to get the job done. I’ll be shocked if this horse is anywhere close to 5-2 ML. Look for this horse to take all the money.
Race 7:
#11 Bright Venezuelan 6-1 ML
#6 Taylors in Orbit 12-1 ML
#7 All About Stella 5-1 ML
#11 Bright Venezuelan drops to optional 16 claimers out of a straight allowance, lures services of Johnny V, and two back lost to Cordele who was a much the best winner disqualified here last Sunday.
Race 8:
#5 Dearly Declared 20-1 ML
AE #13 Hidden Facts 9-2 ML
#11 Prosperite 9-2 ML
#12 Alayaasil 7-2 ML
#5 Dearly Declared goes first time turf out of Declaration of War who’s turf progeny do well, gets blinkers on and stretches out in distance after getting good money both times out on the dirt. Price play.
Race 9:
#9 Cuckoo Kenia 20-1 ML
#4 Queens Quarters 7-5 ML
#6 Kittian Hill 8-1 ML
I picked #9 Cuckoo Kenia 3rd in the writeup two weeks back, and willing to give her another chance on top this time around. #4 Queens Quarters will be a big favorite off the first off the claim win by Zerpa, but he only improved the horse a few beyer points and needed every inch of ground to get up in the final strides. Cuckoo Kenia was bumped at the start and raced wide throughout, and with a cleaner trip may be able to turn the tables on the 2nd choice, at a much more palatable price.
Race 10:
#4 Attribute 3-1 ML
#7 Dr. Edgar 7-2 ML
#3 Go Navy Go 6-1 ML
Danny Gargan’s barn has heated up of late, does well off these types of layoffs (22%), and #4 Attribute ran against Breaking the Rules (3rd), who came back to win a stake at GP last weekend.
Race 11:
#12 Silver Drill 12-1 ML
#7 Guerreron 3-1 ML
#4 Junior Jumper 12-1 ML
#12 Silver Drill dueled for the lead going further last time, before tiring. Returns with a nice bullet 4F work, puts blinkers on, and drops to the lowest level to date. I believe it’s go time for the Pinchin trainee.