Gulfstream Park Racing Analysis — Sunday, February 17, 2019, by Rob Harding

A Plays:

Race 3: #4 Paynters Boy 8-1 ML

Race 10: #3 Spa Jazz 5-2 ML

Race 1:

#2 Moon Eyes 10-1 ML

#6 Trenchtown Cat 9-5 ML

#1 Broken Oath 4-1 ML

If you’ve been following my picks this meet, you’ll remember both #2 Moon Eyes and #6 Trenchtown Cat have been selections for me on Sundays. I am 0 for 2 with Moon Eyes, and Trenchtown Cat lost a heartbreaker in the debut coming 2nd at 26-1. I am hoping third time is the charm for #2 Moon Eyes. I was quite deflated by how she ran last time, especially after absolutely butchering the break and making a huge middle move in the first out race. Delgado now switches this one to the turf, and by Kantharos should appreciate the surface switch. Returns still protected, and gets Jersey Joe in the irons. #6 is the likeliest winner off that debut run, but will be 8-5, and after picking her at 26-1, I cannot stomach a horse at that short of odds after a run like that.

Race 2:

#3 Ledecky 6-1 ML

#7 Grace’s Drama 8-5 ML

#2 First Distinction 3-1 ML

Open bottom rung claimers here. #3 Ledecky obtains Irad Ortiz Jr, and stretches out to the mile distance, a first on dirt, after failing in an open claimer going shorter. Was going well before then, and doesn’t need to be alot to beat this bunch. Do note this one has run well at the mile distance on the grass before.

Race 3:

#4 Paynters Boy 8-1 ML

#6 Andronikos 5-2 ML

#1 Lemon Blitz 7-2 ML

#4 Paynters Boy regressed after a sharp win against maiden 35k claimers in the previous start, but willing to forgive that one. The raceflow looks like it should shape up positively for this one, and Cibelli is a decent 2 for 9 with horses 2nd off a 45-180 day layoff. May have just needed the return after being off for 10 months. #6 Andronikos will have the lead, and #1 Lemon Blitz’s hand may be forced from the rail, but these are the other 2 logicals.


Race 4:

#7 Elissas Secret 2-1 ML

#4 Uncommon Factor 3-1 ML

#1 Purple Girl 7-2 ML

Color me shocked if its anyone outside of these 3. #7 Elissas Secret goes 2nd off the claim for Navarro after a much improved effort off the claim. Gets an ideal draw, and should be able to sit right behind the duel of #4 Uncommon Factor and #1 Purple Girl on paper. #4 gets CC Lopez so you know they are going and the #1 has shown speed in her comparable races to this one before being completely overmatched in the last.

Race 5:

#4 Fortys Sweetheart 6-1 ML

#5 Cuckoo Kenia 20-1 ML

#6 Non Finisce Mai 2-1 ML

Do yourself a favor and take all 7 here in multi race plays. The trainers in this race are a combined: 8 for 205 (4%). #4 Fortys Sweetheart takes a big drop in class, and has consistently been showing decent pace before backing up later in races.  The November win at GPW probably wins this one, and that was against a comparable bunch.

Race 6:

#7 Organic Jenny 4-1 ML

#3 Deweycheatemandhowe 10-1 ML

#5 Passionate Hachi 3-1 ML

This is another head scratcher. #7 Organic Jenny stretches back out after failing for shorter on the drop last time out. Castellano has been extremely picky and choosy at this meet, and so the fact he shows up on this horse at the 12.5k level tells me he is ready to roll. De La Cerda heated up after a very slow start to the meet.

Race 7:

#10 Whatta Girl 8-1 ML

#9 Courageous Change 10-1 ML

#6 Necessary 7-2 ML

Taking a bit of a stab with #10 Whatta Girl. Has never gone the mile, but has run in some very competitive races going between 6 and 7 on both the turf and poly at Woodbine. Trainer Carroll is one of the best in Canada during their meet, and is due to get a win here soon.

Race 8:

#1 Zambian 6-1 ML

#6 Biloxi Bay 12-1 ML

#9 Black Sea 4-1 ML

#1 Zambian takes a drop in class, and fits this race very well based on the recent company. Has run well at the distance before (2 for 3).

Race 9:

#5 Magic River 15-1 ML

#11 Cap de Crues 4-1 ML

#1 Sister Kitten 9-5 ML

#5 Magic River was bet down to 4-1 in the debut, started slow, and was fanned 5 wide into the stretch. Irad opts to ride the Chad Brown favorite, so Casse gets Landeros in the saddle. The steam this horse took first time out for a 25k purchase tells me shes got some talent.

Race 10:

#3 Spa Jazz 5-2 ML

#2 Mr. McFadden 6-5 ML

#1 Gran Red 7-2 ML

#3 Spa Jazz looks like the fastest horse by far in this race, and that coupled with the drop should put this one in the winners circle.

Race 11:

#5 Bourbon Currency 12-1 ML

#7 Mr. French 2-1 ML

#8 Im a Cardinal 7-2 ML

Kimmel barn is absolutely on fire the last week at Gulfstream, and has been winning with prices on the grass. #5 Bourbon Currency most definitely wants to sprint on the grass, so draw a line through the 7.5 race last time. The 6F races at Belmont are better than they look. This race is absolutely loaded with speed, and Irad will have to work out a trip, but the barn is the hottest on the grounds right now, has the right jock, and should get the ideal pace setup.

Race 12:

#8 Venezuelan Forever 4-1 ML


#2 Paint the Corners 2-1 ML

#5 Stay Safe Kitten 3-1 ML

Looks like a chalky nightcap. #8 should have the pace advantage over the other two logical horses, but all 3 can win.

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