Race 1 – 3+ MCL $20k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 4-7-8-1
The Gulfstream Sunday card kicks off with a group of low-level maiden claimers on the turf. The group is led by 4 Miss Loretta who has been running against much tougher maiden special weight company at Laurel. While she hasn’t been able to ration her speed in those spots, she gets serious class relief and has a big shot to take them gate to wire. 7 Sassy Justice has improved significantly on the class drop and surface switch, barely missing at the level last out. She could take advantage of a potential pace duel between 4 Miss Loretta and cheap-speed 9 Bit Coin Queen, making the first move on those pace setters. 8 Tropical Drive ran a quality race two back on the trainer switch to Kathleen O’Connell– setting the pace and hanging on for a decent third– a repeat of that effort would put her in the mix here. David Kassen sends out 1 My Girl Bill first off the trainer switch (2/21, 10% on turf trainer switches). Her races make her logical, albeit an uninspiring pick. It’s hard to differentiate the remainder of the field.
Race 2 – 2YO MCL $12k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 4-1-9-6
The 2nd goes off as one of the most confusing races on the card, with no clear cut horse to beat. 9 Angel’s Run goes off as the luke warm morning line favorite at 5/2. While she’s managed to take some money at the higher $35k MCL level, she didn’t really do any running in those starts. She’ll be facing a softer field here but there is skepticism she has any ability. 4 Syzygy failed to show her early speed last out, posing no threat from off the pace despite solid fractions up front. A return of the previous tactics make her a threat to wire the field. She does stretch out from sprint distances to a one-turn mile and Croft is only 2 for 26 (8%, $2.10) stretching horses out on dirt. 1 Paola’s Team drops down from $35k maiden claiming company after a dreadful effort last out. Her debut at 17/1 would be an effort that makes her very competitive here, showing some decent early speed before fading. D’Angelo is only 4/40 (10%, $0.55) stretching runners out on dirt. 6 Queenoftheminstrel switches from turf to dirt but doesn’t have much pedigree to support the move– she at least has some okay works in the morning.
Race 3 – 2YO CLM $16k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 6-1-3
6 Lady Archa returns to dirt after a failed turf experiment. She’s shown an ability to race on the lead in 4 ½ F sprints at Indiana and to come from off the pace in her last dirt start at GP. She received a curious ride that day breaking fine and being strangled back to last– from there she made a massive move to close for a solid 2nd into a moderate pace. 1 Lucky Milady takes a big class drop from much tougher ST ALW company and a listed stakes. While she didn’t do any running in those starts her maiden victory puts her in contention here. Rohan Crichton sends out 3 Magicgirl first off her maiden victory (19%, 50% ITM, $1.58 on dirt). Looked professional in debut rating behind dueling pace setters and making her move when called upon. She figures to work out a quality trip, racing on or near the lead in a race with little speed. .
Race 4 – 3+ CLM $35k N2L – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 1-8-9-4
1 Solar’s last race on paper & on replay looks like a non-effort, sitting off the pace and never making a move. However, that came at a time when the Aqueduct turf course was playing favorably to inside runners & Solar spent a majority of the time racing in the 2 path and wider. He has races in New Jersey that would be competitive here. 8 Peacock Kitten returns for the Ramsey’s after a 275 day layoff after showing some promise early in his 4YO season. Maker is 7 for 53 (13%, $1.34) off 180-360 day layoff on turf. Likely the most talented runner in the field, it’s a bit concerning they don’t give him a shot in a protected spot. Speed ball 9 Sir Seamus will attempt to take them gate gate to wire– outside of his maiden breaking win he hasn’t been able to ration his speed appropriately. Dropping out of the state bred allowances to the claiming ranks last out proved some helpful class relief & the 3rd place finisher came back to win a tougher ST ALW race. 4 Justcallmenorman has been running well at the level, including making a winning move last out but ultimately flattening out.
Race 5 – 2YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 5 ½ F
Selections: 9-2-4-3
9 Uncaptured Ruby is the horse to beat as she took money in debut (3/2) and showed early speed before fading. An improvement on that effort will be will make her a tough favorite to beat. Navarro is only 2 for 17 (12%) with second time starters returning to the maiden special weight ranks, but ten of those have hit the board indicating some poor racing luck on the win end of that sample size. 2 Touch of Nirvana showed early speed in debut after not taking any money going off at 15/1. Ralph Nicks is a favorable 17/68 (25%, $2.95) with second time starters in at the MSW level. Jorge Abreu sends out 3 Lady Anna and has shown the ability to send a live one out, going 7 for 17 (41%, 11 ITM, $4.15) with dit first time starters & more specifically 2 for 8 with 2YOs. The dam was more of a turf and synthetic runner but there is some dirt throughout the pedigree. 4 Bite the Stars will be sent out by Anthony Margotta who is 7 for 17 (41%, $3.64) with dirt 2YO first time starters and has a solid work tab.
Race 6 – 2YO MSW $50k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 3-4-11-5
3 Im Thirsty Too looks to slow on paper but really had an eventful trip first time out. She broke well and was mid pack between horses until she was shuffled back to nearly last heading for the far turn. When she finally straighten out she showed impressive ability for a first time starter, passing horses in traffic, going in between horses, something that is not always seen on turf, especially for a first time starter. She’s viable to improve as Casse is 21/81 (26%, $1.98) with second time starters in MSWs turf sprints. 4 Myfirstexwife showed an abundance of speed in her debut at Belmont, now takes a slight cut back to the sharper 5 F. While turf turnbacks are not always favorable, on the turf, she should appreciate this one given her early speed. Slightly concerning that Abreu is only 1 for 17 (6%, 3 ITM, $1.01) in second career starts at the MSW level. 11 Grudge is another speed balls shipping from NY who should appreciate the cut bac. 5 Choose to be Happy it’s hard to knock either of her turf starts, finishing 2nd by less than a length in each. It just feels that she’s had her chances and some of the others offer more upside.
Race 7 – 3+ ST ALW $38k – OC $50k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 6-3-1-2
Race 7 is fascinating Starter Allowance with a number of horses exiting stakes or starter stakes competition. Jane Cibelli returns 6 Class and Cash to a protected spot off a near year layoff. She does have weak numbers off similar breaks (2 for 20 off 240-390 on turf)). However, this does figure to be one of the few who will be on or near the lead and has won against much tougher. 3 Grand Journey has had a successful start to his career hitting the exacta in 7 of 8 turf starts. Last out had to sustain a wide move around the far turn and came up just short. Given the lack of pace signed on he might be left with too much to do. While 1 Salute the Colonel may be the horse to beat, it feels that his best races have come when stretching out to the elongated turf routes. He does have races at 1 1/16 M that may him very competitive here but as the favorite it may be worthwhile looking elsewhere 2 Scraps ran a huge race last out, but his effort was really a product of the trio of pace setters up front setting an honest pace as the entire race fell apart. Not sure he receives the same setup in this spot, more of a trifecta player than win candidate.
Race 8 – 3+ CLM $6.5k N2L – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 10-3-6-11
Race 9 – 3+ AOC $47k N1x/$35k – Turf – 1 ⅛ M
Selections: 1-5-2-3
Mike Maker ships morning-line favorite 1 Carom down to Florida first off the claim. Carom has been competitive against tougher New York turf races and now gets a trainer upgrade– Maker is 19%, $1.56 first off the claim going long on the turf. Similarly, 5 Scholar Athlete has been running against quality fields, especially the last at Belmont, putting in a decent effort against the improving Sentry. The 4th place finish at Colonial featured horses that came back to run in stakes. He has enough tactical speed and should be forwardly placed in a race without a ton of early pace. 2 Belgrano has races that fit well here & his last effort was okay, especially considering he’s probably better going longer than the 7 ½ F trip. 3 Basha ran an even, uneventful trip last out and probably fits better underneath here given the class of others.
Race 10 – 3+ MCL $20k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 5-2-6-10