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| Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park as well as spot plays from other tracks. Be sure to give me a Twitter follow on @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers 11 puzzles to solve. Let’s get some winners! Race 1 Today’s opener features maiden claimers going a mile on the turf. My top two choices, including a big longshot scratched out of this one so had to take another look. #12 Hushed Hijinks drops in class off the layoff (24%) for Cibelli. I see Paco Lopez putting this one on the lead as there isn’t much in way of speed here and he will need to clear to get in position off the tight first turn from the outside post. Once there I think he can stay on. Another dropper with a viable shot to win is #11 Battalion for Bill Mott. Has had decent efforts in four career starts and should be a player in this relatively soft field. #4 Time for Trouble caused a lot of trouble for betters last out as a beaten favorite. The class drop should help atone for that one which was off a layoff and should be ready to compete here today. 12-11-4 Race 2 A competitive two year old race starts off the early pick 4 in a good spread race. #4 Trick Shot has had some nice works and runs for a normally profitable trainer/jockey combo with Yates and Vasquez. Yates has really had his two year olds ready to fire this meet. #2 Big Daddy Dave makes his first start for Ralph Nicks who is 25% with two year olds and could be in a good spot to score on debut. J. Servis (John not Jason) trains #7 Gruntled; an expensive two year old out of Runhappy. Yes, that Runhappy that seemingly is the sponsor of all things in horse racing. Servis is 20% with two year olds. A fourth runner with live shot is #6 Fulmini who is the ML favorite for Maker/Ortiz. He has had a steady work tab and should be ready to put in a nice effort today. 4-2-7-6 Race 3 A lackluster but battle tested group of 8k claimers going a mile on the dirt. #1 Tropicality gets Prado back in the saddle (only jockey to have piloted this one to victory in the past two years. She is taking a small drop in class and has shown the most speed of the group. #3 Nothins Free should be on or near the led and could steal this one today on the front end. #5 Nowitna River stretches out, and her last race will drive the price down. She has been a consistent runner and retains Jaramillo on the mount. 1-3-5 Race 4 Our third maiden race of the day is a MSW mile on the turf for fillies. #3 North Broadway is a 750k purchase coming off a four month layoff (25%) for Chad Brown. Ran fourth on debut in a race which the two winners also won next out so the form of that one held up. She should be ready to go today. First time starter #8 Under the Oaks is coming off several good works including two recent bullets. This daughter of American Pharoah sets out for Cristophe Clement who is 28% with first timers and 23% at debut at a mile or greater. It’s a solid field here and she won’t have it easy by any means, but I like the form and breeding to come out. #12 Ocean Air is also entered by Clemente with a race under her belt. She showed a nice effort and gets Irad Ortiz to do the work today and will look to come late. 8-3-12 Race 5 This 8k claimer looks like a pretty awful race. It is the type of race that any of these could win and I expect a lot of them to try to run early making it the type of race you will likely see tired horses coming down the stretch. #2 Tuesday’s Rose has made a career in these ranks including 7 wins last year. Form doesn’t look great, but any improvement in that area and she would be the winner. #3 Passing Moments made a nice run late last out and a similar effort could get it done. She could also run behind these and just watch the whole race from the rear of the pack so this one is a bit risky. #4 Baby Ice may have the best ability to hang on or conserve a little for a late run here. She has had success against a few of these in the past. 2-3-4 Race 6 We get back to back low level claimers with a 6250 claiming race going a mile for fillies and mares. Similar to last race most of these here have a shot, as is the case with most low level claiming races. I expect a lot of speed again here and a very similar set up to the previous race, giving my edge to #7 For Kicks who has the best late kick. Oddly enough in 21 starts she has never run a mile on dirt, but the one turn mile here may be something she likes. #4 Fiamma Mamma is a speed type who may get on the lead and not look back. She has a propensity to fade, but of the speed today looks to have the best chance to last. #1 Union Lane runs for Daniel Pita who has had a surprisingly good meet and one at a mile two races back. 7-4-1 Race 7 This race is a slight bump in class from the previous two, with emphasis on the word ‘slight’. #1 Gioielli was a beaten favorite last out and was claimed by Jose D’Angelo who is 34% off the claim. Previously in the Pletcher barn this mare is lightly raced for a 5 year old, and her better efforts including a MSW win in 2018 come on the dirt. #4 Trans Mississippi is on a big class dive here. This daughter of Verrazano is interesting in that the owners have transferred this filly for the fourth time, now to Monic McGoey. This horse hasn’t been claimed, just transferred. In any case she is working well and if that morning form holds up then she has a live shot at a price here. #2 Blessed Beast has been running decent and maybe getting away from Don’t Get Khozy whom she finished second to twice in a row will do the trick today. 1-4-2 Race 8 This Starter Optional Claiming race looks to be a competitive affair with a core group of four runners who my stand out from the rest. #9 Bad Beat Brian who moves up the ladder some for Pletcher after winning a 30k claimer last out, might be a lone speed here. It’s not often Paco Lopez rides for Pletcher, but he seems to fit the style of this one. The main competition will be #1 Venezuelan Hug who is off a nice Maiden win for Danny Gargan (who has two solid entries here) and should build off of that after posting a nice bullet work since that win. Gargan is 26% with last out winners. #12 Givemetwenty is a live longshot for Ralph Nicks who will have to be closer to the lead here from the outside post, but has show the ability to sit just off and move late. If any cheap speed or Gargan’s other entry decide to push Bad Beat Brian, it could set this longshot up for a run. 9-1-12 Race 9 “Many chances here” may be Aiello’s call in this one as this group of 6 runners all have a legitimate shot. #6 Small Fortune has been running well at Tampa for Georgina Baxter who has crushed it lately at that track. She is also having a nice meet here at GP and sends a very competitive runner here second off the layoff (33%). #3 Win With Pride is off a bullet workout and a good sized layoff (25%) for Pletcher. Has solid early speed with the ability to win at this distance. Irad Ortiz should be able to rate him nicely. #4 Cajun Firecracker has had some nice races and is first off the claim for Mike Maker (15%). He has two wins at GP in the past and goes off the layoff here (17%). 6-3-4 Race 10 This allowance optional claimer goes a mile and 1/8 on the turf and features some quality three year olds. A couple of these were triple crown nominees to include my top choice, #5 Our Country. George Weaver has placed this one in some nice races including the BC Juvenile Turf where he had good efforts. Came up short as the favorite last out but is now second off the layoff and has bullet work a few days ago. #3 Talking is a viable longshot for Jonathon Thomas who is off the layoff (27%) and working well. Will need to improve to get it done, but has shown the talent and Thomas is very good with turf horses. Expect a live runner. #6 Mystic Lancelot is a horse I’ve followed and thought would have had a better career based on his debut in Saratoga last summer. He works hard and is competitive but just can’t seem to get back in the winner’s circle. 5-3-6 Race 11 Today’s finale is a full and competitive race. It looks like the kind of race where a price horse will pop up and liven up the tote board. It could also end up a chalky race. I will go against the likely favorite #8 who has shown too much propensity to fade to be relied upon. #3 Power has been improving each race and gets a nice aggressive rider in Paco Lopez who could get this Brazilian son of Midshipman involved earlier. There doesn’t figure to be much pace and that could help this one. #6 Bellas Fella comes off a bullet work and a nice late running effort last out. Has had a good workout in since then and is ready to surprise the group. #5 Consilium is back after racing last weekend for his third race in May. May be tired, Sano must have seen something left in the tank. 3-6-5 |