Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park and Belmont Park as well as spot plays from other tracks. Be sure to give me a Twitter follow on @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers us 12 puzzles to solve. Let’s get some winners!
Race 1
Today’s opener is a 12.5k maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 mile on the turf. #7 Veer is dropping further in class for Brian Lynch against a soft field. Her speed figures are shape up well against this group. #5 Cactus Kitten is a first timer for Maker/Ramsey with the breeding to win at first asking. #3 Field Bet is back to racing after a year off and shipping in from California. This is a big class drop, so could have a big effort if she runs back to 2019 form.
7-5-3
Race 2
The second is a 65k MSW 5.5f dirt sprint for two year olds. Not much to go on for these at this point in their careers. #7 Loved Globally is a son of Uncle Mo going out for Casse/Juarez after several logged works. Casse is 17% with 2YO and first time starters. #4 Especillea is off a bullet work and might be ready to go today, though Cibelli is only 4% with 2YO. #2 Into the Sunrise will be the likely favorite for Ward/Pino off a bullet work. Ward has slowly improved his percentage this meet and expecting this one to be live.
7-4-2
Race 3
The third race is a 6.25k claimer for three year olds and upward going 1 and 1/16 on the dirt. Looks to be a two horse race, but this is the kind of race where anything can happen. #2 Witch Hunter is off her maiden win for Barboza who is 31% with last out winners. Zayas led her to that victory and is back today. Coming in with comparable speed figures is #3 Etana for Saffie Joseph Jr. on the drop in class. Maragh, who doesn’t ride often for Joseph picks up the mount. Rounding out the top three is #6 Blossom Bow dropping slightly in class and has pretty consistent figures.
2-3-6
Race 4
Today’s fourth race is a 25k claimer for fillies and mares set for a mile on the turf. #8 Garner State Park has finished in the money in all three starts and moves barns while stepping up and adding blinkers. Might get involved sooner here which could help her chances. #5 Florado could get loose on the lead and run away with this one but could face some cheap speed or even have #8 employ new tactic this time around. #3 Letsnotgettoexcited has a name that says it all for this torpedo, but just missed last out and moves up slightly off the layoff. Could be ready for a surprising effort at a nice price.
8-5-3
Race 5
10k Maiden claimers going 6f on the dirt close the early P5. Two of these have speed figures significantly higher than the rest of the group (not that they are that high, but it’s all relative). #3 Commanding Lady dropped last time and had a slight improvement to be more competitive. Some improvement from that race should result and I think the second effort at this level will prove to be a winning one. #11 Victory Crusade goes out for Make and finished a game second last out. Zayas takes over the reins today as this one adds blinkers. At this level anything is possible which gives #4 Rack Daddy a chance. She has had nothing but troubled trips and gets a 7 pound advantage to work with here today.
3-11-4
Race 6
The sixth race is a one mile dirt race for 8k claimers. #7 Bimini gets my top choice here in one that could end up a two horse race. She is off a win after dropping considerably from recent competitive levels. Moves back up slightly but a race similar to the last will get it done. #2 Descente won her last by 11 lengths and drops slightly to go for four in a row today. Might get caught in a duel with some cheap speed, or may get loose. If loose, expect a romp. #9 Nowitna River is another who won last out and has been competitive at this level.
7-2-9
Race 7
The Rainbow 6 starts off with a 12.5k claiming race going 5f on the turf. #8 Tribute Flag is a first time starter for Louie Roussel who is currently 28% at thee meet and 22% with first time starters. This horse was purchased for 245k but is up for claim for 12.5k so even with a win it’s not looking like a good investment here for Roussel, but could be one for betters at a 5-1 morning line. #9 Sundown Kid is off a bullet work and drops after being a beaten favorite, though got a bad start in that one. #10 Nobodyknowsnothin seems like a bit of a curmudgeon by name, however could cheer up David Kassen with a first victory of the meet. He has comparatively good speed figures and is dropping from MSW ranks.
8-9-10
Race 8
A 75k AOC for three year old fillies going 7f kicks off the late pick 5. The slight cut back could really help #1 Run Devil who will likely be on the lead. Joseph is 22% on the route/sprint angle and the speed figures for this one shape up nicely. #5 Money Never Sleeps looks to benefit from the possible quick pace with all the early speed and move at the top of the stretch to take over. #7 Sweet Mia has never finished out of the trifecta and will also be involved early but may give in when challenged.
1-5-7
Race 9
The ninth race is a 75k AOC for three year olds going a mile on the turf. #6 Riggins won his last race and moves over to Dobles who is 31% with first claimed horses. This one has the potential to make these connections a lot of money. I have always liked #5 Mystic Lancelot but see this one as an underachiever so far. The figures are better than the rest, but I am not confident in the new barn’s ability to keep that speed going. #1 Kokokomo didn’t care much for the slop and Zayas losing the whip didn’t help. I expect a big improvement from that effort for the always dangerous Pletcher barn (who, by the way used to train #6 and #5).
6-5-1
Race 10
Race 10 is the third allowance in a row, this time a 6f 16k AOC on the dirt. #2 Star Juancho moves to the Delgado barn which is 25% off the claim. He was a beaten favorite last out in a disappointing effort, but can definitely improve here in a competitive race. #1 Vinnie Van Go has done pretty well for a 5k purchase earning $146k lifetime. He has the speed to compete and if Trejos can get him out of the rail spot ok he will be a major player. #7 Cpt. Rhett Butler can still be seen at the track even if not on any streaming services…enjoyed the slop and ran off to a 6 length victory last out. Will likely employ the same tactic and could have a similar result.
2-1-7
Race 11
The eleventh is a 25k AOC set for 1 1/16m on the turf. #5 Flowmotion has the speed and gets Paco Lopez back, which is a good thing as he had previously led him to two victories. He should get back to the winner circle for Cibelli who is currently 16% and having a nice meet. #9 On a Spree may send someone on one if he can pull off a third victory in a row at a morning line of 10/1. He has shown the speed at Tampa and will look to set the pace or sit right off of it in this competitive group. #1 Derby Champagne is off a win and moves to the Hess barn who is 15% off the claim.
5-9-1
Race 12
Today’s finale is a $30k claiming race going 7f on the dirt. On paper two horses stand out speed wise. #6 Win With Pride should do so today second off the layoff for Pletcher (20%). Lebron should handle this one well up front and get it done. #2 Front Loaded will be right there on the lead with the 6, but the recent seconditis can’t be ignored. The horse who will look to make a late run and hope for a collapse is the #3 Green Mansions who should be there down the stretch for a piece of the action.
6-2-3