| Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park and Belmont Park as well as spot plays from other tracks. Be sure to give me a Twitter follow on @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers us 12 puzzles to solve. Let’s get some winners! Race 1 Today’s opener is a one mile turf route for 25k maiden claimers. #007 Felix Leiter (see what I did there) is off the layoff (23%) and claim for Eppler. He is improving each race and should have a nice late kick. Looking for a lead off home run is #6 Leading Factor who drops into the claiming ranks after several poor efforts. The breeding should eventually come out and off a bullet work maybe today is the day. #2 Ratify is second off the claim for Plesa who drops him further down the claiming ranks. 7-6-2 Race 2 Back to back maiden claiming races, this time for 10k claimers going 7f on the dirt. #6 Crystalina needs a better start but seems to have the edge in this race. She also could benefit from the slight cutback for Sanchez who is 15% route to sprint. #8 Upsy Daisy Do has been right there with #6 in the last two races and should be there again today. #4 Na Na Dude drops a couple of classes and is second off the layoff for Croft who is only a 6% trainer but gets Paco Lopez in the saddle to improve this one. 6-8-4 Race 3 The third race is a 6f dirt 8k claiming race for four years olds and up. #5 Silent Tiger moves up slightly in class and was a beaten favorite last out and will be right on the lead. The main competition is the morning line favorite and former Navarro trainee #6 The Gipper with some nice workouts and talented apprentice Fuentes in the saddle, along with his 7 pound weight advantage. #3 EJ’s Revenge ships on from Parx. Most will be quick to dismiss Parx runners but Taylor is a capable trainer trying to get his horses some races. 5-6-3 Race 4 Today’s fourth race is a 10k claimer for fillies and mares set for a mile on the turf. All the contenders have an international flair, starting with top choice #8 Avenida Manana. He goes for his fifth in a row with Paco aboard for two of those. He drops slightly off his last win which in a limited sample is a good move for Hess (50%). #10 La Incondicional is also a last out winner dropping slightly as well. Lopez ride this horse to victory last time but today it will be Prado in the reins. Should be right there with #8. #11 Yako should have nice odds and gets back to turf course which she prefers. Keep in mind others in this group have beat her but at this level things can change every race. Race 5 The fifth is a 47k MSW for three year olds and up going 6f on the dirt. #6 Man of Honor comes off a strong effort for Roussell who has had some success this meet coming in at 29% so far. Prado learned last race that he needs to conserve a little in this one. #2 Loxodrome is a first timer for Pletcher (23%) with some good recent works. Lebron doesn’t ride often for TAP and has a chance to impress today. #4 Brewmeister will need a bump in speed but has had time to mature and could see they bump today. 6-2-4 Race 6 25k Optional claimers going a mile on the dirt are featured here, with only one of six entered with a tag. #3 Violent Trick is making her first start for Pletcher (23%) and has the best speed figure of this group. Should be ready as recent works indicate. #1 Solitary Gem is second off for Walder (12%) and looking for win number 4 in a row. Vasquez gets the call after riding her to victory last race. #4 Dance d’Oro is off the maiden win for Nicks after hitting the gate and winning by 4 lengths at 20-1. If she can repeat that effort (minus hitting the gate) the field could be in trouble. 3-1-4 Race 7 The seventh is a 47k MSW set for a mile on the turf. The kickoff to the P6 mandatory payout has several viable contenders. #6 Imperial Moment off back to back bullet works should be primed for a big effort today. Will likely pop the gate and hit the lead, hopefully will be able to hold on today. Roussel usually has them ready off the short layoff (16%). #12 Leading West is in his second start for Maker (15%) and has the tactical speed to clear the field from the outside and then sit right off the lead for a late run. #2 Fake Muse is second off for Dobles with potential and an up and coming apprentice Trejos who has been rising great on the pace. 6-12-2 Race 8 Eight three year old 12.5k claimers going 6f on dirt in today’s eight race. My top two choices are subject to a bounce but anything close to their maiden wins and they both have a great shot. #4 Captain Duke is off a nice maiden win for Delgado (15%). Lopez should be able to provide an aggressive ride which could separate him from all the speed. #8 Man With a Plan is second off and first off the claim for D’Angelo (39%) and has all the numbers to potentially blow this field away, however drifted last time making me question form a bit. #7 Shanghai Moon is cutting back, and while it hasn’t been a successful angle for Hurtak he has had his runners ready with a 19% win rate so far this meet. 4-8-7 Race 9 A dozen 12.5 claimers battle in this mile turf route. Most of these have a legitimate shot of winning the race. #10 Morning Stride has saved his best stride for the stretch and was just claimed from the Maker barn by Sancal (27%). He is the horse to beat but will likely be a short price. #7 Cowboy Culture just missed to #10 in the last race however can turn the tide today moving back to turf. Torres no longer carries the weight advantage but is 31% with Plesa over then last 60 days. #9 Grand Nenuco is off a layoff and should be well rested to make a late run. He is dropping into a level he had a lot of success in previously. 10-7-9 Race 10 The tenth is a 6f 10k dirt claiming race for 3 year old and up non-winners of two lifetime. Depending on how hot the pace is, it could set things up nice for #5 Harper Go Lucky whose only win came at this trip. I anticipate cheap speed and a race where he gets a perfect trip. He had the highest last out speed and comes in with a nice recent work. #7 Flawless Moon will also be off the pace but should be closer than #5. Off a bullet work the morning line favorite should be a major contender who in four races has never finished out of the trifecta. #4 War Act makes a slight drop and shouldn’t be ignored at a nice price. He is another off the speed type who is somewhat pace dependent and should be coming late. 5-7- Race 11 The featured race of the day has many familiar names in a 55k handicap for three year olds and up. There should be enough speed to make the late runners duel down the stretch. #9 Math Wizard has been training well including a couple of recent bullets and is looking to get back into winning form. He likes this track and does well at the distance. #8 Noble Drama ran second against a tougher overall group last out with a nice speed figure. He should be ready to give #9 a serious challenge. #3 Letruska should be the pace setter and could get away with one should others not push that pace. The morning line favorite is #4 Diamond Oops and while he is a fast one I think he is better at a shorter distance, but he cannot he left out if consideration. 9-8-3 Race 12 Today’s finale is a mile 8k dirt claiming race to close out the mandatory payout of the P6. It would be fitting if #3 took down the pot, but I don’t think that will happen today. #1 Just Kidding is well spotted to get the win for Saffie Joseph. It’s becoming a signature move for Joseph to claim and drop, which results in a 35% strike rate with new claims. He will be ridden by Paco Lopez and he has the speed to get it done today. #6 So Long Chuckwill look to say so long to the field by setting that pace with Berrios. If he can control the fractions his owner Bruno may fire up Lawrence Welk for a dance (couldn’t resist). The best chance for a price is #10 Dexter Roadwith a morning line of 8/1. Torres rides this horse well and looking at the lines he certainly fits as a contender. 1-6-10 |