Twitter: @bmata85
Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 27/102 (27%, $2.25)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Best Bet:
- Race 5: (#3) Magical Mike (6-1 ML)
- Race 9: (#5) Philo (15-1 ML)
Race 1 – 3YO MCL $16k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 5-7-1
The card kicks off with a perplexing group of three year old maiden claimers. The group has little form to base strong opinions off of and with a perplexing group such as this, it’s often advantageous to find a price horse. Unfortunately, it’s hard to find in this field. (#5) Flat Out Cool has the most upside of any horse in the field as she enters only her 2nd career start. Trainer Henry Collazo is a solid 5 for 33 (15%, $6.76 ROI) with second time starters on dirt. She ran okay in her debut, showing at least some semblance of tactical speed, finishing a distant 2nd to a runaway winner. I’ve unfortunately landed on two of the shorter priced horses in (#7) Markistan and (#1) Queen Abarrio, for my 2nd and 3rd selections. They exit the same January 20th race, running similarly, showing tactical speed and finishing okay down the lane. A repeat of those efforts makes them strong players in this spot, albeit untrustworthy at short prices. Overall, I do think one of the shorter prices gets it done. If not for a short price, it’s difficult to predict which of the priced horses will run well.
Race 2 – 4+ CLM $16k N2L – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 1-7-5
The second features a bargain sale of runners from the Mike Maker and Todd Pletcher barns. The winner of this race is very likely to be from the group exiting the January 2nd race, (#1) Barbadolla, (#5) Comic Kitten or (#7) Recess. While they all remain at the N2L level, they take nearly a 50% drop on their claiming tag, essentially begging for a claim. Of the three, I’m leaning on the one who will hopefully be the biggest (relative) price of the three runners, Barbadolla. Given that Babadolla is breaking from the one-hole, it’s nearly impossible for this runner to lose as much ground as she did last out. After breaking outside, she was four to five throughout the first turn, raced uncovered in the four path in the backstretch and came up empty in the stretch after going four wide on the turn. With an improved trip, her maiden races make her a strong player, who could be ignored based on the poor running line last out. Comic Kitten and Recess are logical players given their past speed figures and class lines. Neither ran very well last out, finishing third and fourth respectively, despite fine trips but it’s not as if they are facing much competition in today’s affair.
Race 3 – 3YO FL MSW $43k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 1-2-11-10
While the 3rd is a maiden special weight event for Florida breds, it does feature an interesting combination of runners with experience and first time starters. (#2) Daily Grace figures to take a majority of the money as she put in a strong effort in debut after taking money, going off at 3-1. She just missed the victory that day, setting the pace and getting run down by the 1-1 favorite, who came back to run 3rd in a subsequent allowance race. Ralph Nicks is a strong 25%, $2.91 ROI with second time starters at the maiden special weight level. While I won’t be surprised if Daily Grace blows the field out, she figures to be a short priced favorite who set moderate fractions on a track that was kind to speed. For that reason, I’ve landed on Dale Romans’ (#1) Shazzy B. Romans is not a strong debut trainer, winning with only 10%, however, Shazzy B put in a strong effort that day, rating off the pace and putting in a strong stretch run. Romans has much stronger numbers second time out winning with 19% ($2.06 ROI) of second time starters on dirt at the maiden special weight level. While Shazzy B needs to improve off the debut, I’ll lean on her at what should be a much better price than Daily Grace. (#11) Up in Smoke could be a live first time starter for George Weaver as a $230k purchase who picks up Irad. Weaver has excellent numbers with debut runners at the maiden special weight level — 20%, $4.33 ROI. Furthermore, The Big Beast has been a strong sire with debut runners early in his stud career. I do have concerns breaking from the 11 post, especially as a first time starter, as horses breaking from outside of post seven at 6 F are 6/112 (5%). (#10) Kashan had a nightmare trip in debut, racing four wide for the entirety of her trip, never putting in a serious bid. In a similar vein to Up in Smoke, Kashan will have to deal with a tough outside post.
Race 4 – 4+ CLM $16k N2L – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 2-8-5
The male counterpart to Race 2 finds another group of hungry group of claimers going a mile on the turf. Similarly to that race, I’ve landed on three of the shorter prices as they look to have an advantage compared to the rest of the field who was been unable to break through the level. (#2) Solar was my top pick when last seen on January 12th. That day he was coming off a decent 3rd place effort where he seemingly never had clear running room. I’m not sure what happened last out, despite the face pace he never put in a serious threat throughout the stretch. My hope is that he was too far back, leaving him with too much to do late and with more encouragement early he could at least stay within contact of the field. Furthermore, the drop from $30k N2L to $16k N2L should help from a class standpoint. (#8) Ding Dong Ditch put in a credible effort last out, coming off a nearly year break, he was forwardly placed and made a strong move eventually taking over in mid stretch only to be run down late. He should take another step forward 2nd off the bench and has little to knock other than his projected short price at post time. (#5) Saltking has a very similar profile to Solar as he exits the same $30k N2L race as that runner. They had nearly identical trips that day, racing far off the pace and never seriously threatening the winner. Similarly, if Saltking can stay in contact with the field he has races that fit very well with this group.
Race 5 – 4+ MSW $50k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 3-12-11-5
While top pick (#3) Magical Mike is listed at 6-1 on the morning line, it’s much more likely he’ll be closer to favoritism than that line. He was bet down to the even money in his dirt debut off an impressive work tab. He was off sluggishly, trailing the field and never put in a series bid attempting to close into a moderate pace on a track playing favorably to speed. It’s impressive he was bet down to favoritism on the dirt as the pedigree largely suggests a better turf horse. Magician (IRE) hits at a solid 12% clip with turf runners and the dam was not only a three time winner on the turf in England, but a half to five other turf winners. Also given the pedigree, the stretch out to 1 ⅛ M should be no problem. Saffie Joseph is only 1 for 8 going dirt to turf with second time starters, but given the small sample size and massive turf pedigree, I’m cautiously disregarding the stat. (#12) Freedom’s Flight has put in back to back solid efforts at longer turf distances. Last out, he closed into a slow pace, finishing a distant 2nd to a next out winner. While he’s had eight chances, he has improved in each start & the last out effort would make him a major contender. (#11) Golden Tapit did no running in debut and comes off a lengthy layoff but is a half to stakes winner Paddy O’Prado, out of a dam that won four times on the turf. Walsh is an average 13% off a 180 to 300 day layoff on the turf. At a double digit price, he’s capable of hitting the exotics. (#5) North Dakota has a number of races from New York and Kentucky that fit well here but is a bit of a question mark as he goes out for former Shug McGaughey assistant trainer Robert Medina.
Race 6 – 4+ AOC $53k – N3x/$75k (or NW since May 01) – Dirt – 6 ½ F
Selections: 3-1-2
The added condition of non-winners of a race since May 1st brings together an interesting group of filly and mares. I’ve landed on (#3) Blamed as my top selection. While Bill Mott has surprisingly weak numbers 2nd off a 300+ day layoff (9%, $1.10 ROI), Blamed figures to have a much easier time than her return race. The Grade 2 Inside Info was littered with speed types & was a near lock to feature a fast pace. Blamed did most of the heavy work, dueling on the lead and then fading significantly, setting up the win for deep closer Pink Sands. She finds herself with a much easier pace scenario in this spot, with little speed signed on outside of the returning (#4) Celia’s Song. If she breaks well she could find herself setting a comfortable pace that produced her highest speed figures during her four year old campaign. (#1) No Need to Appeal comes off a nearly year and a half layoff, but surprisingly Chad Brown usually has them ready to go off such a break. Over the last five years, Brown has hit with 8 of 20 runners (40%, $2.57) off a year plus break on dirt. While she’s only raced eight times as a six year old, a majority of her career races put her in the mix. I do have some slight concerns that some of the front runners may get loose in front of her & leave her with too much to do late. Morning line favorite (#2) Heiressall exits a live Florida Bred Stakes race as both Wildwood’s Beauty & Liza Star came back to run well. However, she just doesn’t seem fast enough to keep up with the best in here. She generally puts in a good effort, but this group of open company seems out of her scope.
Race 7 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 1 ⅛ M
Selections: 9-6-8-2
The perplexing career of (#2) Telephone Talk continues as he comes off a solid 2nd place finish. His short career has been full of ups and downs already as he debuted at Keenland on the dirt and was dead on the board (for this barn), only to put in a monster performance, tangling with eventual Kentucky Jockey Club winner Silver Prospector on the front end. Rather than return to dirt, Chad Brown moved him over to the turf for his 2nd start where he was bet down to the odds-on favorite but failed to hit the board. While he is out of a Kitten’s Joy mare & two sibs won on the turf, it was curious why they were so quick to switch surfaces. Last out, he showed a new ability to sit off pace and put in a solid bid closing into a fast pace after setting the pace in his debut. Given the money he’s taken, I’m trying to beat with (#9) All Eyes West. Admittedly, it’s a big stretch out from back to back 6 F races, but I’m hoping the Street Sense pedigree can play a big influence. He’s run well in each of his three career starts and given the stretch out should find himself on the lead or a perfect pressing trip. If Telephone Talk rates again, its conceivable that the pace could be on the moderate side, setting up a perfect trip for All Eyes West. (#8) Spa City put in a much improved effort on the stretch out in his second career start. He should appreciate the added distance in today’s race and provides another logical alternative Telephone Talker.
Race 8 – 4+ CLM $8k – DIrt – 6 F
Selections: 2-4-10-5
Race 9 – 4+ CLM $16k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 5-11-10-2
There’s no doubt that (#10) Twenty Four Seven and (#11) Flyoff are the two horses to beat. While they both come off extended layoffs, they’ve both run significantly faster speed figures against tougher competition. It will take a big performance from the remainder of the field to beat one or both of them. However, both their trainers have weak numbers off extended breaks. Danny Gargan is only 1 for 10 (10%, $1.06) off 180-300 days, while George Weaver is 1 for 11 (11%, $0.37) off a year plus break. Furthermore, given that they’re obvious standouts on paper, they figure to be extremely short prices. I’m going to take a shot with (#5) Philo. I’m not sure he’s good enough to beat the two aforementioned runners but his effort two back off the claim was a solid one. While he saved significant ground that day, he still managed to make up ground despite the slow pace up front. He earned a career best speed figure that day, indicating a slight move up off the claim for trainer Rohan Crichton. I’m disregarding the poor effort on dirt as his better efforts have generally come on turf.
Race 10 – 3YO FL AOC $44k – N1x/$16k – Dirt – 7 F
Selections: 5-3
Race 10 really feels like a two horse race between (#3) Cross Court and (#5) Ricki Ticki Taffi. These two have significant speed figure advantages & tower over the rest of the field. Of those two, I strongly prefer Ricki Ticki Taffi who comes off a strong 2nd place finish in the Limehouse Stakes, chasing a strong pace and making the first move into that pace. He was rundown that day by Shivaree who came back to put in a solid 2nd place finish against open company in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes. The Saffie Joseph barn has been firing all meet (30%) and Ricki Ticki Taffi should be ready for a best effort 3rd off the slight layoff. The other main contender, Cross Court, comes off a solid maiden win as the 2-5 favorite. Jorge Delgado is 1 for 8 (13%, $1.90) with dirt runners who are coming off maiden wins. He’ll need to take a step forward off that performance but given it’s only his third career start it’s certainly not out of his scope.
Race 11 – Grade 3 Suwannee River Stakes $150k – Turf – 1 ⅛ M
Selections: 6-3-7
A similar theme of chalk continues in the Grade 3 Suwannee River Stakes as it drew a field of seven, but in reality it comes down to the three shortest prices on the morning line. Of those three, I’m trying to beat both Chad Brown runners with (#6) Starship Jubilee. While I traditionally think the ‘horse for course’ angle is overplayed, it’s hard to deny that Starship Jubilee doesn’t have an affinity for the Gulfstream turf course. She’s 9 for 16 lifetime and her running style is ideal for a Gulfstream turf course that can be kind to speed. She remains in excellent form as a seven year old and it’s hard to find any chinks in her armor. Both (#3) Magic Star and (#7) Tapit Today are lightly raced and it would not be surprising to see either of them take a step forward here. Of the two, I prefer the shorter priced Magic Star, but it ultimately feels like splitting hairs. While it’s an interesting race to watch, I have no creative opinions from a betting perspective.
Race 12 – 4+ MCL $16k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 1-3-2
The nightcap features a full group of cheap maiden claimers, few who have shown even close to an ability to win a race at this point in their careers. For that reason I’ve landed on a first time starter, (#1) Morning Tice. There’s a chance this horse has little ability and Pecoraro is 0 for 12 with turf first time starters. However, as previously mentioned, there is little to be scared of in this spot and Morning Tice has an impressive turf pedigree for a $16k claimer. Morning Line is a capable turf sire, hitting with 16% of turf starters and the dam was 5 for 19 lifetime on turf. She’s also a half to three other turf winners. Admittedly, it’s a bit of a guess at a price. The two most likely winners are (#3) Eight Ain’t Enough and (#2) Mystery Guest. Eight Ain’t Enough is extremely logical after running putting in a much improved effort last out dropping down from much tougher maiden special weight company. Other than the likely short price, I have no major knocks. Other than being within the vicinity of a fast pace, Mystery Guest did not run well last out despite a fine trip. However, his back races just make him a player in this weak field.