Race 3 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 4-1-3-6
The 3rd race undoubtedly goes through morning line (#1) Mr. Philly Dilly who comes in off back to back 2nd place finishes, including a solid effort last out where he set the pace and was just run down late by a well backed Todd Pletcher first time starter. There is little doubt that he’ll find himself on the lead, breaking from the one hole with the always aggressive Paco Lopez aboard. However, he does stretch out after back to back sprints with a pedigree that doesn’t scream more distance. Furthermore, trainer Ben Perkins is a weak 2 for 19 (11%, $0.94 ROI) with dirt entrants going sprint to route. At a short price, I’m looking to beat the likely favorite with (#4) Rag Tag. While the speed figure came up light in the debut, that was 10 months ago going 4 ½ F as a two year old. Pletcher is a borderline ridiculous 39%, $2.34 off 210 to 390 day layoffs with runners returning at the maiden special weight level. The work tab looks strong with a number of bullets littered throughout. (#3) Attachment Rate showed massive improvement off the layoff, finishing second, nearly running down the Todd Pletcher favorite at a massive 50-1. While there is no doubt he took a step forward off the layoff, he also received a perfect trip, sitting 12 lengths off fast early fractions. While Mr. Philly Dilly and (#2) Bychance could hook up on the front end, it’s unlikely that the pace will be as contentious, likely leaving Attachment Rate too much to do late and more of a contender underneath. (#6) Tons of Gold falls into a similar category as a horse with figures that fit but likely needs pace to close into.
Race 4 – 3YO CLM $16k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 4-5-2-7
Race 4 goes off as arguably the most confusing race on the card as there appears to be no clear standout among this group of lower level claimers. I’ve landed on (#4) My G P S as my top selection. Listed at 6-1 on the morning line, he’ll likely drift closer to favoritism by post time. This Mike Maker trainee comes off just a maiden claiming victory, but took a considerable jump forward first off the claim. Maker has a number of favorable angles at play here — 24% ($1.93 ROI) with turf maiden winners coming back to the claiming level & 20% ($2.02 ROI) with turf runners second off the claim. He did sit a perfect trip in his maiden breaking score, but even a repeat of that effort would be good enough against this relatively weak group.
2nd choice (#5) Captain Flint is purely a pace play as there is just little speed signed on. Last out, he set fast fractions and faded badly. If Tyler Gaffalione can ration his speed appropriately, he could hold on for a piece at what should be an overlaid price off his poor effort last out. (#2) Verdict Is In and (#7) Quick Enough are listed as the morning line first and second choice, but I’m somewhat against both. They do not stand out in any capacity and are worthy bet againsts at short prices.
Race 5 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 3-8-12
Unfortunately, my opinion in Race 5 is not overly creative. I’m leaning on the two Pletcher first time starters (#3) Money Moves and (#8) Gallantry as my top two selections. While they should be chalky plays, there isn’t much to like with those with experience or the other first time starters. Pletcher’s numbers speak for themselves as he’s a robust 30% ($1.84 ROI) with dirt maiden special weight level first time starters at Gulfstream. Money Moves was a $975k purchase and is out of a dam that was a stakes winner sprinting on dirt. Of those with experience, (#1) Sagamore Mischief, (#5) Sky Mischief, and (#9) Tapi Frost are all horses who have decent races littered throughout their PPs, but have had multiple chances and are likely only competing for minor awards. Of those with experience, (#12) Touchpoint likely provides the most upside going out for his second career start for Jorge Navarro. While he does possess theoretical upside, his race was underwhelming, running an okay 4th near a slow pace. Furthermore, Navarro is a weak 3 for 24 (13%, $0.94) with second time starters at the maiden special weight level on dirt. The first time starters all go out for trainers who are not known to have first time starters cranked.
Race 6 – 4+ CLM $12k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 3-6-1
Race 6 provides an interesting handicapping puzzle as six of the seven runners go out for new barns either via the claim box or through trainer switches. (#3) Kyle is an overlay at anything close to his 15-1 morning line odds. While his last out effort was extremely poor, he gets a serious trainer upgrade to Carlos David. While I have concerns that this seven year old has lost a step, he has races late in 2019 that would make him a major player. On the shorter price spectrum, (#6) Ray’swarrior holds a sizable speed figure & pace advantage over the remainder of the field. A repeat of his last two efforts at the level would make him tough to beat in this spot. It is concerning that trainer Amador Merei Sanchez is 0 for 5 first off the claim, with all five runners going off at 8/5 or lower, but even if he can hold Ray’swarrior’s form, he should be tough to beat. (#1) Starship Apollo is a logical morning line favorite as he’s put in multiple efforts at the level that make him a contender. He ran an okay 2nd last out, chasing a slow pace, never seriously threatening the winner. Sancal is an average 3 for 21 (14%, $1.23 ) first off the claim on dirt.
Race 7 – 3YO MSW $50k – Turf – 1 ⅛ M
Selections: 13-4-10-12
(#13) Juulstone draws in off the AE list and is a massive overlay at anything close to his morning line price of 10-1. This son of American Pharaoh had been disappointing on the dirt but had the turf pedigree to support the surface switch last out. He put in a huge effort that day, closing into moderate fractions and making a big stretch run. Also ran African Heritage came back to win last Saturday, hinting that the race Juulstone is exiting could feature some formidable runners. (#4) Turn of Events took a big step forward in his 2nd career start for trainer Mike Maker. He chased a fast pace, going wide on the beginning portion of the first turn & ultimately made the first move into the pace entering the stretch to break the race open. He was just run down that day but has come back to run a bullet work since, indicating he’s capable of another step forward. (#10) Walk Up Music put in a solid effort in debut, but the race was a classic ‘merry-go-round’ race with none of the top six finishers altering position throughout the race. Independent of that effort, Arnaud Delacour is 29%, $2.52 ROI with second time starters on the turf returning to the maiden special weight level. He should find himself forwardly placed with the aggressive Paco Lopez aboard. Similarly to Walk Up Music, (#12) Oxide put in a solid effort forwardly placed effort in his turf debut, just getting run down late. Jose Ortiz will need to navigate a trip from the 12 post but a repeat effort should make him a player.
Race 8 – 3YO CLM $16k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 1-7-9
Race 8 brings together a weak field of low level claimers to go 5 F on the turf. There isn’t a ton of turf sprint form but (#1) Secret Miss seems to have a big advantage on the field coming off her turf debut. She raced near a fast pace that day and while the race fell apart she managed to hold for a decent 3rd place finish. Breaking from the one hole, she has enough speed based on pace figs to gain the lead which could play a pivotal role in a race that doesn’t feature many winning types. (#7) Kerry It hasn’t shown much form on the dirt or synthetic but the dam was more of a turf sprinter so she may appreciate the surface switch. She’ll need to improve but isn’t facing the toughest bunch of claimers. (#9) Sue’s Monster Baby has dirt form that fits with this bunch but doesn’t have an overly strong turf pedigree — Maclean’s Music is 12% with turf starters and while the dam was 1 for 3 on turf, she was better on dirt.
Race 9 – 4+ FL AOC $44k – N1x/$16k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 4-2-3
Race 10 – 4+ ALW $51k – N1x – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 5-10-4-9
There’s little doubt that (#10) Isla Road is the horse to beat. She exits the Tropical Park Oaks where she put in a career best effort, just missing the victory. She broke from the 13 post and was hustled to a forward position. From there she rated behind the speed and made the first move to break the race open entering the stretch. She looked beat halfway through the stretch but battled back to nearly capture the victory. In doing so, she managed to impressively hold off the other closers. She’s an improving filly who should go off as the deserving favorite. However, I’m looking to take a small shot against with (#5) Enjoyitwhlewecan. While this Kiaran McLaughlin trainee has never run on the turf, she has a big pedigree to support the surface switch. Quality Road hit’s at a robust 14% with his turf starters & while the dam was unraced, she’s a half to five turf winners, also producing a foal that was 1 for 4 on the turf. Furthermore, Kiaran has a number of positive angles that fit here. He’s 8 for 24 (33%, $3.60 ROI) with turf runners off layoffs between 240-420 days and 18% ($2.18) with maiden special weight runners going dirt to turf. She’ll need to improve off her dirt efforts but given the surface switch and time off it’s certainly within her scope. (#4) Codrington and (#9) Bean Counter are both listed as short prices on the morning line but are worthy bet againsts as they’re stepping up from weaker starter allowance company and do not necessarily stand out on speed figures.
Race 11 – Grade 3 Royal Delta Stakes $150 – Dirt – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 6-5-2
The Grade 3 Royal Delta brings together an interesting bunch of older fillies and mares. (#6) Cookie Dough comes off an impressive effort where she set the pace off a layoff and was run down late by the impressive closer Pink Sands. Since, Pink Sands has come back to win a Grade 2, further flattering Cookie Dough’s effort. While Stanley Gold is an excellent trainer, she now moves into the ever-hot Saffie Joseph barn, which should only help this four year old filly. She’ll have to deal with (#2) Coach Rocks on the front end who comes off the trainer switch to Todd Pletcher. Pletcher is an excellent 4 for 15 (27%, $1.77 ROI) off 90 to 120 day layoffs in stakes races. She’s always shown an affinity for the dirt & specifically Gulfstream. With a return to the dirt & a trainer upgrade, she’s capable of running back to her prior races that make her a major player. (#5) Golden Aware is the deserving morning line favorite and is arguably the best horse in the race. However, she comes off a slight layoff and Mott is a weak 2 for 22 (9%, $1.10 ROI) off 90 to 120 day layoffs on the dirt. On the contrary, she did run well in the Turnback the Alarm Handicap at Aqueduct at being eased in her start two back.
Race 12 – 4+ MSW $50k – Turf – 7 ½ F
Selections: 7-5-12
Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 31/114 (27%, $2.38 ROI)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Best Bet:
- Race 7: 13 Juulstone (10-1 ML)
- Race 10: 5 Enjoyitwhlewecan (8-1 ML)