Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 26/93 (28%, $2.94)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Best Bet:
Race 7, 2 King Khozan (7/2 ML)
Race 10, 6 Myamanoi (7/2 ML)
Race 1 – 4+ CLM $6.5k N2L – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 4-7-9
The card kicks off with a group of low-level, non-winners of two claimers going a mile on the dirt. As is often the case with the level, there is a lack of a true stand out or horses to rely on. For that reason, I’ve landed on 4 Garota as he’ll be making only career start number five. His maiden breaking score came in an off the turf race against a field full of maiden claiming turf horses. However, it was visually impressive as he chased a long shot through fast early fractions, eventually putting away that foe and winning by seven lengths. While the victory could have been a product of the competition, at least he’s proven at the distance and figures to offer some theatrical upside. 7 Pass It On switches to the Gerard Ochoa barn who is 2 for 11 (18%, $1.44 ROI) off dirt trainer switches. It’s difficult to assess this horses dirt form as his two career starts have come against significantly tougher. He might ultimately be a better turf horse, but in a field lacking form, he presents a new face. 9 It’s a Lovely Day is a logical short-priced horse who figures to sit a perfect trip in behind the speed to his inside. He’s beginning to pile up the seconds but he generally fires a race that would put him in the mix.
Race 2 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 1-8-3
I’m not getting too creative in the second as Todd Pletcher’s trainee 1 Ellis Island looks to fit the profile of a horse who can win on debut. Pletcher is a robust 29%, $1.80 ROI with dirt first time starters at the maiden special weight level over the Gulfstream course. Will Take Charge is an average sire first time out (19% with first time starters), but the dam was an impressive 2 for 2 as a 2YO sprinting on dirt. The work tab is consistent with hints of talent throughout. 8 Conformity is another logical first time starter for trainer Mark Hennig, who hits with 18% of first time starters and more importantly a $3.13 ROI. Honor Code is an excellent win early sire winning with 38% of first time starters. The dam was a turf horse but the rest of the family is filled with dirt sprint pedigree. The remainder of the field is tough to decipher as it’s filled with horses who have experience but lack any form or horses who go out for trainers who are not overly successful first time out.
Race 3 – 3YO ST ALW $36k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 1-9-5
Race 4 – 4+ AOC $51k – N1x/$25k – Dirt – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 6-2-4-5
I’m ultimately leaning on the chalk in Race 4 to make it through the race. While I usually attempt to land on some type of price or at least a non-favorite, I unfortunately could not find an alternative in this spot. 6 Kid Bourbon has significantly better speed figures than the rest of the field and looks to be a logical favorite. He put in a strong effort last out closing into a moderate pace, just missing the victory, losing by a neck. It’s slightly concerning that he couldn’t pass Ekhtibaar after that one did the majority of the work setting the pace. Regardless, he may just be the best horse in this spot. 2 Grump has plenty of solid races that fit here and should appreciate the move to the forever-hot Saffie Joseph barn (37% last 30 days). Joseph is a solid 21% on dirt trainer switches but is often with winning short priced horses ($0.96 ROI). With slight improvement on the trainer switch he fits very well and will likely be on the lead. 4 Gray Beau and 5 Winking At Thedude look very similar on paper as horses who have races that fit from a speed figure perspective but are not necessarily winning types. Either are liable to hit the board at a mid-range price.
Race 5 – 4+ AOC $52k – N2x/$62.5k – Turf – 1 ⅛ M
Selections: 2-3-1-7
Race 5 runs through the two likeliest shortest prices on the board, 2 Noble Indy and 7 Unleveraged. Of the two, I strongly prefer 2 Noble Indy who possess plenty of speed that should play favorably on a Gulfstream turf course that is often kind to speed. Independent of how the course is playing, 2 Noble Indy should have a comfortable early lead as there is little speed in the field. Horses like 7 Unleveraged and 10 Dragon Bay are often forwardly placed, but are not true front runners. 2 Noble Indy is also proven at today’s 1 ⅛ M with a victory at the distance three back. 3 Go Poke the Bear put in an improved effort first off the claim for Mike Maker. Sitting in the back of the field, he closed from last into moderate fractions. Furthermore, he’s 2 for 3 at the distance and Mike Maker has excellent numbers second off the claim after a victory — 27%, $1.70. 3 Go Poke the Bear will need some racing luck given his late running style but has an opportunity to take another step forward second off the claim. 1 Projected (GB) is probably not good enough to win but seems to always fire a solid effort. He’s 0/4 at 1 ⅛ M but appears to be in good form and could work out an ideal trip from the rail. 7 Unleveraged is likely to be much shorter than his 7-2 morning line price. However, even at the morning line price, I’m against this runner. His 2019 races were very similar to his 2018 races from a speed figure perspective but overall I thought his last two races were disappointing. His return race at Saratoga was okay, but he was beaten by his stable mate who had a very similar trip. Last out, he pressed the pace and despite no clear excuse, finished a flat 3rd. While it’s dangerous to bet against Chad Brown, there is money to be made if done so correctly.
Race 6 – 3YO Grade 3 Forward Gal Stakes $150k – Dirt – 7 F
Selections: 6-2-5
Race 7 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 2-9-3-1
Race 7 is filled with expensive purchases and high profile trainers, including Dale Romans, Pletcher, Shug, Kiaran McLaughlin and Bill Mott. The field is led by the Todd Pletcher trainer 9 Palm Springs, who has been installed as the 4-5 morning line favorite after a disappointing debut. The million dollar purchase was bet down to 3-5 and ran a distant 2nd after a trip with little excuse. The son of Uncle of Mo should appreciate the stretch out from 6 furlongs to 8 and Pletcher has excellent numbers with dirt second time starters returning to the maiden special weight level — 30%, $1.88 ROI. With that said, the debut was disappointing and I’m looking to beat on what will likely be another short price. I’m leaning on 2 King Khozan as my top choice. Bill Mott is well known for developing his horses slowly, rarely having them cranked first time out. However, he’s a strong 21%, $1.88 ROI with second time starters at the maiden special weight level. While the debut was a relative flat performance, there’s potential he was running on the lesser part of the Aqueduct track. NYRA analyst’s Andy Serling and David Aragona have discussed at length the difficulty that horses had closing on the Aqueduct course during that part of the meet. It was less of a true closer bias and more attributed to the kickback horses were taking when rating behind horses. Horses in the clear had much less trouble closing. 2 King Khozan sat in behind horses that day and took plenty of kickback, covered in the mud at the end of the race. He still put in a decent effort, rating behind horses and looking ready to make a big move on the turn before flattening out. Further validating the effort, two horses have come out of that race to win next time out. 3 Bear Alley and 1 Rogue Element both fit similar profiles as expensive purchases who did little running in debut. However, Dale Romans has excellent numbers with second time starters on the dirt in maiden special weight events — 20%, $2.10 ROI. They have a similar feel to Attachment Rate who finished second last weekend as a second time starter for Dale Romans coming off a poor debut.
Race 8 – 3YO Grade 3 Sweetest Chant Stakes $100k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 7-3-2-1
The Grade 3 Sweetest Chant Stakes returns three of the top four finishers from the January 4th Ginger Brew Stakes. That race saw a fast early pace that allowed 3 She’s My Type and 7 Moral Reasoning to close from the back of the pack for a one-two finish. Given that today’s field is a tick easier than that edition, I’m expecting a similar finish. I’ve repeated my selections from that race putting 7 Moral Reasoning over 3 She’s My Type. I really do not have a strong preference on the two runners who figure to go off at very similar odds. I thought 3 She’s My Type had the slightly better trip last out, getting the jump on 7 Moral Reasoning, leaving her with too much to do late. There doesn’t seem to be as much speed as the last affair but 2 Mona’s Tale & 4 Cheermeister should ensure at least an honest pace. 2 Mona’s Tale is likely not good enough to compete with the two favorites, but does come off an extremely impressive maiden win where she was bet down to 3-1 and beat the 2nd place finisher by 7 lengths & 3rd place finisher by over 12 lengths. It doesn’t appear to be the strongest of NYRA maiden races but that type of margin of victory is impressive nonetheless. She should be the pace setter & it generally helps to be forwardly placed on the Gulfstream turf course. The Gargan barn has been on fire in Florida, winning with 5 of 9 starters (56%, $6.97) in the last 30 days.
Race 9 – 3YO Grade 3 Swale Stakes $150k – Dirt – 7 F
Selections: 4-5-6-2
The Grade 3 Swale came up strong, with a competitive bunch of eight colts going 7F on the dirt. Analysis of the race has to start with the eye-popping performance of 2 Untitled in his debut for trainer Ralph Nicks. While it came against state breds, the performance was undoubtedly impressive earning an impressive speed figure. Since the debut, 2 Untitled was privately purchased by Gary Barber, moving the impressive colt to the Mark Casse barn. Casse is 3 for 9 (33%, 56% ITM, $1.71 ROI) with trainer switches off of maiden wins on the dirt. While a small sample size, he’s an even more impressive 2 for 4 in moving those trainer switches directly into stakes company. I have little doubt that 2 Untitled is an impressive colt, but I am somewhat against him at a short price. His performance came at a time when the Ralph Nicks barn was firing on all cylinders and I’m not sure Casse will be able to improve on such a big debut performance. Furthermore, the waters get significantly tougher as he not only faces open company for the first time, but will stretch out from 6 F to 7 F, a much tougher distance to go gate to wire. I’ve ultimately landed on 4 Green Light Go as my top selection. The Stronach-owned 4 Green Light Go has run well in every career start, with the only loss coming at the hands of likely Holy Bull favorite Tiz the Law. Given how the Belmont track was playing that day, I’m not sure that setting the pace on the inside was really where you wanted to be. Despite that, 4 Green Light Go still put in a credible effort. The slight layoff should only help in development and Jerkens is excellent in these situations going 3 for 8 (38%, $3.73) with dirt runners off a 90-150 day layoff targeting stakes races. While he set the pace in the Champagne, he showed an ability to rate two back when he was victorious in the Saratoga Special. Given the presence of 2 Untitled and some others who generally show speed, I’m hoping that 4 Green Light Go will trip out. I considered putting 5 Shivaree on top as he has the look of a rapidly improving horse. It seems that the light has gone on since his maiden breaking score as he’s put in back to back efforts that would be competitive in this spot. While he should be able to work out a favorable trip, rating off the speed, I do have concerns that his is by far the toughest field he’s had to face. On the other hand, with another step forward, he will be a major player at what should be a decent price. 6 Necker Island doesn’t fit well from a pace perspective but hard to discount after an impressive victory last out. He dueled on the lead against other speed that eventually faded and still managed to hold off the stalkers and closers for the victory.
Race 10 – 3YO Dania Beach Stakes $100k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 6-2-9-3
The Dania Beach Stakes drew a competitive field of ten three year olds who look to be evenly matched on paper. I’ve landed on 6 Myamanoi as my top selection off his impressive maiden win at Aqueduct. He faces a big class test but Danny Gargan is a solid 18%, $2.57 ROI with maiden breakers next out on the turf. Off the three month break he put in a visually impressive effort, sitting towards the back of the pack then making a long sustained move entering the far turn that rarely works out. Instead of faltering, 6 Myamanoi accelerated, pulling away by four lengths in the end. Horses have not come back to run particularly well from that race but given the impressive nature and margin of victory it’s less of a concern. 2 South Bend has plenty of dirt races that would put him in the mix if he takes favorably to the turf. He certainly has the pedigree to do so as the dam was 4 for 10 on turf and he’s a half to a two time turf winner. 9 Famished and 3 Homeland are both logical horses who figure to be short prices. I have no knocks on either as both have run well every time they’ve touched the turf. However, at short prices, I’m looking to at least beat on the win end.
Race 11 – 3YO Grade 3 Holy Bull $250 – Dirt – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 1-3-7
The Grade 3 Holy Bull kicks off a series of prep races at Gulfstream Park for the Kentucky Derby. The field drew one of the top early contenders for the Derby in 3 Tiz the Law. Listed at 3-5 on the morning line, there is a potential that he goes off at an even shorter price. The Grade 1 Champagne winner was sent off as the 3-5 favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, finishing a disappointing 3rd after an interesting trip. A decision will need to be made if the effort was truly disappointing or the trip was a product of an unlucky ride. As is the case so often in life, the reality likely lies somewhere in the middle. Manny Franco moved 3 Tiz the Law into a perfect pocket spot on the rail behind the pace setters, saving ground and awaiting an opportunity. That opportunity didn’t develop until they were well into the stretch where 3 Tiz the Law finally had the chance to run. However, at that point horses were already closing from the outside with full momentum. Regardless of the trip, I do find it disappointing that once in the clear 3 Tiz the Law was outrun by two different foes. While he’s the most likely winner with a better trip, I have to at least take a small shot against at what will be an extremely short price. I’ve ultimately landed on 1 Toledo as my top selection in the 2020 Grade 3 Holy Bull. I found his effort last out slightly disappointing as he couldn’t pass today’s rival 4 Ete Indian. However, I’m hoping that Chad Brown was ultimately targeting this spot and there is room for improvement for this lightly raced son of Into Mischief. Given the presence of 6 Relentless Dancer & 5 Clear Destination (Paco aboard) there should be plenty of early speed to give 1 Toledo an opportunity to close. Unfortunately, this likely means 3 Tiz the Law will also be able to work out a similar trip. Mark Hennig returns to the Holy Bull after scoring an upset win with Harvey Wallbanger in the 2019 edition. Similarly to Harvey Wallbanger, 7 Mayberry Deputy also comes of a maiden win entering the race. While he likely needs to take another step forward, he could work out an ideal trip similar to his maiden breaking win where he sat behind a number of speed horses and made an impressive move entering the stretch.
Race 12 – 4+ CLM $16k N3L – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 10-4-3
The nightcap ends the multi race sequences with a confusing group. As evident by the 7/2 morning line on the favorite, there are no clear stand outs in the field. For that reason, I’ve tried to find a price and have landed 10 Fantasizing, listed at 12-1 on the morning line. While the Gulfstream morning line is not always reflective of post time odds, I do think 10 Fantasizing will go off at double digit odds given his running line last out. However, the race is filled with excuses as he completely blew the start. Once he regained footing he raced three to four wide around the entire track and then understandably came up empty in the stretch. His victory two back against N2L company was a performance that should put him in the mix against this confusing N3L bunch. 4 Doctor Dub comes off back to back non-efforts but returns to what is likely his best surface. The October 13th race at Gulfstream Park West was his only start on the turf and was by far the best effort of his career. I do have concerns about the other projected speed, but he could end up being the speed of the speed on a Gulfstream turf course that plays favorably to front end runners. 3 Kingsville has difficult form to assess as he’s been mostly putting in non-efforts but against much tougher state breds in Texas. Furthermore, he does come off a lengthy layoff for Elizabeth Dobles who doesn’t have much data to decipher how ready he’ll be. She does however have strong numbers off the claim on turf — 26%, $3.14. He could appreciate the significant class relief if he’s ready to run.