GP DEC 14 – thedailygallop@gmail.com – Gmail
| Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selection Tally: 6/21 (28%, $2.02 ROI ) Race 1 – 2YO MCL $25k – Turf – 1 M Selections: 2-4-3 The card kicks off with a 2YO maiden claiming race devoid of much form– none of the nine entrants have hit the board in any of their turf starts. Given the lack of form with the experienced runners I’m looking for those who have been the least exposed, which leads me to the only first time starter, 2 Just a Bit Sassy as my top pick. It’s a bit concerning that she was purchased for $50k and now is entered for the $25k tag on debut, but she has plenty of turf pedigree. Her dam was 0 for 2 lifetime but a half to four turf winners, while her half sibling was 3 for 10 on the turf, including 2 for 4 as a 2YO. Khozan is a solid 11% with turf winners, but more importantly 42% with 2YOs and 44% with first time starters. Ralph Nicks is a robust 17% with a $1.76 ROI with 2YO, first time turf starters. 4 Maries Melody has managed two okay efforts on the dirt but now switches to what should be her preferred surface. Point of Entry is an 11% turf sire, with 14% of his progeny winning first on the turf. Furthermore, the dam was a three-time turf winner. While Minguet is only 1 for 14 (7%, $0.98) going dirt to turf, I’m not getting too picky in this wide open spot. 3 Time Shift didn’t run a step in her turf debut but now takes the drop on the ship to Florida. However, this is not a strong move for Phil Serpe who is 0/14 (7 ITM) with horses dropping from MSW to MCL races on the turf. Race 2 – 2YO FL MSW $40k – Dirt – 6 F Selections: 4-1-12 The 2nd continues the trend of confusing, wide open 2YO races without much form to go on. While three of today’s runners have experience, I’m betting that a few of the firsters are more talented & ready to fire. 4 Three Hombres is a full sib to the precocious Three Rules who won his first four starts for the same trainer, Jose Pinchin. Sire Gone Astray is a solid 29% with 2YO and 15% with first time starters. The works look strong and Pinchin is 20% with 2YO first time starters on dirt. On the obvious front, it never hurts to pick up Jose Ortiz — the talent should be here. I’m leaning on two Khozan colts to complete the exacta. Both 1 Untitled and 12 Emjoi Guy go out for a sire who wins with 42% of 2YOs and 44% of first time starters — outstanding numbers for both. Additionally, Ralph Nicks (24%, $2.41 ROI) and Kathleen O’Connell (23%, $3.26) are both solid win early trainers with 2 year olds on dirt. As always, monitor the board in these wide open 2YO races packed with first time starters. Race 3 – 2YO CLM $35k – Turf – 5 F Selections: 8-5-2 8 Bahamian Prince has run well in both maiden turf starts, including a competitive 5 ½ F turf sprint at Saratoga. The maiden breaking score came in a much weaker maiden claiming race at Laurel, but two of those runners have come back to win, albeit on dirt. Weaver is an average 11%, $1.19 with last out maiden winners on turf but she may just prove best in here. 5 Man With a Plan ran well in his only turf start, running near a moderate pace and finishing a distant 2nd. The winner of that race came back to run a decent 3rd in a $100k stakes at Tampa. The morning line favorite 2 R U Lucky goes out for the surprisingly chilly Jorge Navarro barn. No denying he’s a very logical winner, but he’s a suggested bet against at the short price given that he doesn’t stand out on figures or form. Race 4 – 2YO ST ALW $38k – Dirt – 1 M Conditions: Claiming Price of $50k or less and which have never won a race other than maiden or claiming or claiming price $50k Selections: 2-4-7 I’ll admit that top pick 2 Dream Maire is a bit of stretch and on paper is way too slow to compete with some of the logical players in here. Furthermore, trainer Matthew Williams is 0/16 at GP and has only had 26 starters this year. However, I cannot get past her last race. It was her first start on dirt and she broke towards the back of pack. From there she made a long, sustained 4 wide move around the turn and then pulled away at the top of the stretch to win by a commanding 7 lengths. There was probably nothing behind her, but she won like she should have against a weak field & the visual indicates she could be competitive here despite the slower speed fig. Morning line favorite 4 Filly Jean King is extremely logical off her Hut Hut Stakes effort. While she was unable to finish despite a perfect setup, she’s facing significantly weaker in this spot. She also could find herself on or near a very slow early pace, further adding to her case. 7 Addison goes out for trainer Dale Romans who is an excellent 22% with a $2.23 ROI with maiden winners last out on the dirt. Despite a slightly uncomfortable trip last out at Churchill, she ran a quality race. A repeat of that effort would be competitive in this spot. Race 5 – 3+ ALW $47 N1x – Turf – 1 M Selections: 5-7-10 The early pick 5 closes with what seems like a logical allowance spot. I think one of the top two choices, favorite 7 Sayyaaf and 5 Blockade are very likely winners of this race. 5 Blockade came back off the 634 day layoff and put in a solid effort, one that is even better than it looks on paper. He sat a fine trip but really had an uncomfortable stretching run, having to angle out while others in the race we’re starting to put in their final bids. Once he was angled out he never really had a clear run. Still, through all this sneaky trouble, he only finished a length behind the winner. He figures to take another step forward off the extremely long layoff. In a more competitive field I would be against the Chad Brown morning line favorite, 7 Sayaaf. However, other than 5 Blockade, I just don’t see many alternatives. He’s a very likely short priced winner. Race 6 – G3 Sugar Swirl Stakes $100k – Dirt – 6 F Selections: 6-3-9 The G3 Sugar Swirl Stakes is reminiscent of last week’s claiming crown races that featured fields full of front running types. Given the projected early pace, I’ve landed on what I think is the best closer in the field, 6 Stormy Embrace. On paper her last two races look a little slow, but both featured slow paces, preventing her from closing and achieving a faster speed figure. Furthermore, the 3rd place finisher from her last start, Liza Star, came back to win a claiming crown race. Her best may be 7 F, but given the pace, she should be running late and has a win at the distance over the track. The hot Jason Servis barn sends out 3 A Bit of Both who has won 6 of her last 7 starts and has never finished outside the trifecta in 9 career starts. While she may be tied up in a speed duel for a majority of the race, I think she’s ultimately the speed of speed and could hang on. 9 Heavenhasmynikki had no chance in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, running against the likes of Covfefe and Bellafina. She was in excellent form in the beginning of the year, finishing a very competitive 3rd to Midnight Bisou and came back to win the G3 Vagrancy at Belmont. If she’s able to sit off the hot pace, the class relief should prove beneficial. Race 7 – 3+ My Charmer Stakes $100k – Turf – 1 M Selections: 1-9-6 1 Mitchell Road looks to be a legitimate favorite in a race she could potentially dominante on the front end and take the field gate to wire. Her speed figures are superior and as mentioned, she is the controlling speed without much other pace signed on. While 9 Take These Chains (IRE) looks to be off form, losing her last two races by a combined 27 lengths, some further examination of her form is warranted. Clearly a horse with physical problems given the multiple extended layoffs, she has run very well in some spots when healthy. Her last was clearly not the target as she went 5 ½ F and was massively over matched going a distance that is not ideal. Now she stretches back out to a distance she’s had success at before and should offer plenty of value at the 12/1 morning line price. If she can fire 2nd off the layoff she figures to sit close to 1 Mitchell Road in a moderately paced race. Similar to the other Chad Brown horse earlier on the card, Sayaff, I think 6 Altea (FR) is a worthy bet against. While she generally fires, she’s had only 2 wins in 15 starts, while hitting the board 9 other times. She managed to find the winner’s circle last out, but that was due to a beautiful ride by Irad Ortiz, saving all the ground managing to slip through on the rail. While she’ll likely hit the board, she’s a solid bet against on the win end at a short price. Race 8 – G3 Rampart Stakes $100k – Dirt – 1 M Selections: 4-11-6 I do not have an overly strong opinion in the G3 Rampart Stakes. Given the multitude of sprinters stretching out, I’ve landed on what I think is the best closer in the field, 4 Pink Sands. While she received an ideal setup last out and was unable to close, I think the extra furlong should help her in this spot. I like that Jose sticks aboard as well. 11 Cookie Dough switches back to Stanley Gold where she had success early in her three year old season. She’s one that figures to be involved in the early pace, but might be the class of those speed horses. Outside of her last race, 6 Molto Bella, looks a little slow to compete with these. However, as a three year old, I’m assuming she took a nice step forward off the layoff and could take an additional one second off the break. She figures to be able to rate before the plethora of speed. Race 9 – G2 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes $200k – Turf – 1 ⅛ M Selections: 9-7-3 The G2 Ft. Lauderdale features a competitive field with plenty of ways to go, a case could be made for nearly the entire field. I’m against the morning line favorite 5 Channel Cat who seems to better going longer than today’s 1 ⅛ M. While he’s certainly the horse to beat, there’s others that other significantly better value. 9 Marzo has been an impressive add to the Maker barn off the claim three back. He put in two impressive efforts in Kentucky before a dull race at Aqueduct last out. There could be an argument that he never really had a clear run in the stretch, bumping in to a couple of foes and losing momentum. I like that Mike Maker wheels him back in just three weeks and a repat of his Kentucky races would be competitive here. Love his 10/1 morning-line price. 7 Cross Border is the second choice on the morning line at 7/2, but I do think his price will drift up and off some value. Given the lack of early pace, he could find himself on or near a pace that project to be a slow one. If you toss the G1 Joe Hirsch his form brightens up significantly. 3 Flavius figures to improve 2nd in the US for Chad Brown and would offer incredible value at the 6/1 morning line price. His first effort at Aqueduct was solid, attempting to close up the rail against a competitive field. Race 10 – G3 Harlans Holiday Stakes $100k – Dirt – 1 1/16 M Selections: 1-6-8 1 Prince Lucky earns my top selection and is the most likely single in the late multi race sequences. While his Bold Ruler effort doesn’t look overly impressive on paper, he ran a sneaky big race. He managed to chase 3YO champ Maximum Security 4-wide for the entirety of the race on a day where it was beneficial to be down on the rail. Despite the poor trip, Prince Lucky put in a solid bid entering the stretch, ultimately flattening out late. A repeat of that effort or the two-back Kelso effort would be good enough to beat this field. 6 Bodexpress is the clear cut 2nd choice off his record setting effort last out at Gulfstream Park West. While I’ve always been a fan of this horse, betting him in the Preakness, he needs yet another step forward to compete with Prince Lucky. However, as a colt late in his three year old season, this is certainly possible. 8 Realm is a distant 3rd choice for me — a solid horse who seems to always put in a good effort. I’m ultimately against 5 War Story on the trainer switch. Race 11 – 3+ CLM $16k – Turf – 1 1/16 M Selections: 11-12-1 The nightcap is a competitive field full of open company $16k claiminers going a 1 1/16 M on the turf. 11 My Point Exactly set fast fractions last out, dueling on the lead and managing a solid 3rd place finish. While he does break from a tough outside post, I do think he has enough speed to lead early, especially with the aggressive Paco Lopez aboard. 12 Compano goes out first off the claim for Domenick Schettino, who has only claimed one turf horse in the last five years. While the layoff and drop first off the claim ($25k to $16k) is a bit concerning, he’s just been running against significantly better horse at NYRA and Fair Grounds. 1 Could Be has races two and three back that fit with this field and offers should value at the 8-1 morning line price. He has tactical speed to sit a perfect garden trip breaking from the one-post. While these three earn the top three selections, a number of runners could be used in any multi race sequence — 2 Dakota’s Dude, 3 Victor Lounge (IRE), 6 Love Nest, 8 King Orb. |