Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park as well as other major tracks. Give me a follow on Twitter @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers us five stakes races (four of which are graded) and a total of 11 puzzles to solve, let’s get some winners!
Race 1
We start the day with an overdrawn field in a tough claiming race. #10 January Won is dropping off the win at GPW and adds Saez in the saddle which won’t hurt. Has the best Beyer figures of the group and has an improving speed line. #7 Iconic is a consistent runner with good numbers both at Gulfstream and at the trip. #8 Ice Tea takes a slight drop and offers value at a double digit morning line.
Selections: 10-7-8
Race 2
Some future stars in this wide open MSW for 2YOs. #2 Semper Fidelis ran a strong second on debut and should build on that experience for Joseph/Gaffalione (30% together in the last year at GP) Should improve enough to be a major factor. #5 Julius the Great is bred out of Maclean’s Music who throws great sprinters. Avila has had some success with 2 YO (15%). #3 Prime Factor is a first timer for Pletcher who has had steady works with this 900k purchase.
Selections 2-5-3
Race 3
A solid group of 2YO fillies battle in this AOC, where only one horse is up for a tag. I’m predicting a chalky outcome with #4 Gambling Cat who took a shot in the G2 Jessamn last out and gets relief here. Maker and Gaffalione have been on fire at Gulfstream. #8 Con Lima is off back to back second place finishes in stakes races and gets turf for the first time off a couple bullet works. #2 Runaway Rockette enjoyed the blades last out closing for a nice victory. Will look for a similar trip today.
Selections: 4-8-2
Race 4
The first of four graded stakes today, the Grade 3 Rampart drew a field of six fillies and mares. #3 Sally’s Curlin should be able to take advantage of a fast pace and use the strong late kick to bring it home in the stretch. The drop in class cannot be overlooked. #5 Letruska is a quality front runner with a graded win on this very track. Could wire the group, though #2 Bajan Girl has been running incredible against weaker competition and will also fight for the lead. The intense pace could be hurried by a couple of others as well playing into the hand of the top choice.
Selections: 3-5-2
Race 5
#2 Fierce Scarlett is the class of the field for Brown/Ortiz who are about as dangerous of a duo you can go up against on the Gulfstream turf (27%). She should sit just off the pace and make a nice run late. #6 Daddy’s Joy disappointed last out but the maiden score was one that was impressive and I’m looking for something closer to that effort today. Ran a route on debut before sprinting the last couple races. #8 Ghostly Beauty is a consistent runner for Maker who has yet to win at Gulfstream but is a major player underneath.
Selections: 2-6-8
Race 6
The Grade 3 Sugar Swirl is an incredibly matched small field. #3 Golden Ami has been ultra impressive in two starts so far winning each by over 5 lengths while improving each race. She is stepping up here but seems to fit and could be a break out race. It will be interesting to see if she handles dirt as well as the synthetic. Pop quiz, who won the 2019 Sugar Swirl? It was #2 Lady’s Island who is here to defend her title. She has continued her winning ways this year and should be in this one early. #5 Cinabunny is off back to back bullet works but is taking a considerable leap from Parx allowances to graded company. Cox will have this one as dialed up as she has ever been.
Selections: 3-2-5
Race 7
Competitive MSW featuring 2.15 million dollar purchase (who I don’t have in my top 3). #3 Simovich is a big price on the morning line and is a stablemate to the aforementioned 2.15 million dollar first timer. This one has experience albeit disappointing for Mott so far. Comes in off a bullet work and improves to Jose Ortiz on the mount. #1 Midlaner sped and faded in the debut and should come back improved here for Kenneally who is 20% with 2YO’s. #5 Donegal Bay is another with experience going from Pletcher who typically improves horses in second start (23%).
Selections: 3-1-5
Race 8
The lone non-graded stakes of the day is the My Charmer. #5 Lady Lawyer fits perfectly here and should be able to win on the front end. Will likely be a short price, but I think dominates this group. #6 Madita is a quality horse who weakened last time as the favorite and should bounce back. #4 Tuned has a great late kick and will be coming should the class falter.
Selections: 5-6-4
Race 9
The local prep for the Pegasus is the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday. I will look to the slowly developed #7 Tatweej to control the race from the outside post. He has improved each race and gets a good test here to see if the 2.5 million dollar price tag is justified with a shot in the Pegasus. #1 Tax is a graded winner who should be sitting just off Tatweej looking to use his class to pass late. #2 Phat Man has done his best work at Gulfstream and has a live shot.
Selections: 7-1-2
Race 10
The Fort Lauderdale, Grade 2, features a very competitive group of ten who could potentially all get a win. #1 Somelikeithotbrown is off a stakes win and will be able to use his speed to get out early from the rail. The turn comes quick so he can really use this to his advantage and conserve some energy for the long stretch run. #9 Factor This will also send from the outside and must get over quick into the turn or will be in trouble. He is the classiest of the group. #8 Spooky Channel has the best late speed and could certainly be there at a nice price especially with any kind of meltdown.
Selections: 1-9-8
Race 11
The finale is a classic Gulfstream full field Maiden Claiming race. #9 World Cruiser drops for Clemente and hasn’t done much, however you can’t ignore CC’s stat of 29% on the drop. He will have his work cut out from him against others who have run better in previous races. #7 Demon is the best of Pletcher’s two options here who Ortiz will probably get involved earlier. #1 Lease is logical figures wise on the drop.
Selections: 9-7-1