Gulfstream Park 2/17/20
By: Michael Jordan Twitter: @mhjpicks
Race 1
Always fun to start the day with a stakes race-today is full of them. The opener is the Little Magician Stakes set for a mile on the turf features a lot of early speed. That figures to set things up well for #1 High Noon Rider for Joseph/Gaffalione. Joseph is 43% in drops off the win and will have this one ready to save ground and come late. #7 My Point Exactly will be one of the speed horses looking for win 3 in a row. Carlos David has Ortiz back in the saddle who kept him live and controlled his last race, so could see that kind of performance again. #5 Ice Tea liked the grass in his first grass race last out earning the win with a patient rise. A similar effort today could be a winning one.
1-7-5
Race 2
The Trust Buster Stakes is a small field of 6 going 6 on the dirt and the morning line favorite is the 6. I however will look just to his inside for #5 Travy Boy off a brief layoff (27%) for Zerpa and coming off a nice bullet work on preparation. He will be ready to go and should fire out to the lead. Catch him if you can. #2 Who’s Out will likey sit just off the pace setter and whoever goes with him looking for stretch run to pass. Navarro/Saez are 26% when teaming up and it’s hard to ignore that Navarro is 39% with horses third off the layoff. #4 Vinnie Van Goghalways seems to be in the mix, especially in the pace scenario. His locket, Lopez is one who loves to be in this scenario as well, could surprise.
5-2-4
Race 3
Another small group is signed on for the Mary Todd Stakes. #7 Lucky Long looks to have more than luck on her side boasting three best recent speed figures with a really impressive Claiming Crown Tiara win two back. She also won this race last year. #1 Pugilist will definitely be fighting for the win for Navarro who is 53% in drops off the claim. Will have to really fire an effort above anything she has done recently here but it’s possible with Navarro/Ortiz. #3 Bareeqa is off a small layoff (22%) for Gargan but is a little pace dependent, and needs the speed to run into.
7-1-3
Race 4
Today’s 4th is The Lady Bird Stakes. #1 Liza Star is coming out of a poor G2 showing after a Claiming Crown victory and several nice races before that. I think Walder took it too far by entering the G2 but can’t blame him for trying. As long as that race didn’t shake her, her speed should show in this race. The rail hasn’t been a problem for her other than that G2 attempt. Joseph enters the #4 I’ll Take the Cake off the claim straight into stakes. A good sign for a trainer who is 34% off the claim. Should be ready for a nice effort. #7 Free to Fly is moving up after a nice claiming win. Ortiz bailed on this one for the 5 after rising to victory but I think the running style of the 7 suits this race better and could pick up the pieces from all the pace.
1-4-7
Race 5
The Mrs. Presidentres Stakes should be competitive and may have a Royal winner. Looking for a torpedo to hit here with the #5 Queen Field for Antonio Sano. Sano doesn’t get many stakes wins, but this horse has been ridden well by Paco and he has the speed to win this one at a nice price. #7 Queen of God first off the claim for Maker (15%) can get the distance and retains Gonzalez who knows this horse well. She will need some improve but Maker can certainly help make that happen. #8 Rising Bella is first off the claim for Klesaris (17%) and Irad Ortiz who rode her to victory last out. She has the speed and style to finish in the money at the least. #2 Richie’s Girl will likely take a lot of money for Rivelli who is 28% in non graded stakes and has been improving each race. On the negative side, Rivelli hasn’t had much success on the grass (8% for second time grass).
5-7-8-2
Race 6
This allowance race has some conditions attached giving a 6 pound advantage to horses who haven’t won a race other than maiden/claim/starter and 3 pounds to a non winner of stakes. Many argue it doesn’t matter and maybe they are right. I am a believer there has to be some advantage otherwise why are apprentices allowed weight etc. The formula that has worked for me is that every three pounds helps improve a length of speed. This is not in itself an exact science and doesn’t always affect the outcome. But when you give an expert rider a weight advantage on an improving horse I could see a jump as is the case for #5 Aye Aye Sir who is also coming off a bullet work and solid efforts before. It may not be enough to overcome #3 Cajun Casanova who was in impressive turf stakes winner here at GP. Another viable contender especially based on possible pace is #1 Muchmorethanthis for Trombetta/Prado.
Race 7
Back to stakes action with the Rough and Ready should be full of early pace clearing the way for closer #3 Quenane to secure his third victory in a row moving up in class here. #2 Yodel E A Who will be strong out the gate Likey with #7 Sensational Ride giving the best run at him. They will battle and while either could last I’d say the safest of the two is the yodeler who has been the favorite in his last 6 races (3 wins).
3-2-7
Race 8
The American Fabius is a three year old stakes featuring Triple Crown nominated #5 Disc Jockey for Saffie Joseph who is 27% off the layoff and 31% off a win, not to mention his last out speed figure is much higher than the efforts of the others here. Some of the others will be trying to take some out of him possibly setting up a collapse and that would play into the style of #8 Iberico who should sit just behind the leaders. Sano actually has this horse as well as the #7 Causalistic who is off the maiden win and could employ similar tactics. Note however that Sano is only 6% with non graded stakes runners.
5-8-7
Race 9
The Sage of Monticello Stakes has a nice full field of 10 entries. #9 Monforte looks to be then one to beat looking for his fourth win in a row. Rendon is 20% with early speed types and has handled this one perfectly in two starts. Others will be pushing but his speed so far is significantly higher than the other entries and would take a bit improve to get him; with the exception of one who can push the pace is off his maiden win and had a big speed jump was #4 Prince Khozan who is first time out for Fawkes (14%) really took to the grass. #1 Prince Kitten is a little light on the speed figs and the trainer stats aren’t great, but a rail saving trip and a great jockey in Saez could factor with a breakdown of the pace.
9-4-1
Race 10
The Rail Splitter Stakes is a small competitive field of 8 entries. #4 Home Base is off a bullet work and layoff for Tomlinson (12%) but got some much needed competition and experience in a recent G3. I think he is ready to run a nice one and as usual won’t likely be hit too hard at the windows. #9 Early Entry for Navarro/Saez has already destroyed expectations earning almost 400k lifetime. Could add to that total today third off the layoff (38%) will have to be in it early to have a chance. #3 First Deal is another Navarro entry who will be live off the layoff (24%). His last race broke a 3 race win streak and no doubt a new one could be started today.
4-9-3
Race 11
Today’s finale is the Old Man Eloquent Stakes. It is a full field of 12 and a lot of recognizable names ready to go to battle. #1 Apreciado is off a great effort in a G3 for Maker that produced the highest speed figure of any of these in the group and gets a jockey who knows how to work the rail in Gaffalione. If he can put together another effort like that they will just all watch him run by late. #9 Muggsamatic is third off the layoff (26%) for Servis and primed to sit just off the pace and make a stretch run. #11 Dr. Edgar is a classy type making his first effort of 2020. Tagg is 16% off the layoff and 22% in non-graded stakes which is some class relief for this speedy pace type.
1-9-11