Hello once again racing fans, we have another 10 race card we are analyzing here for you from Gulfstream Park. Last week was a rough start to 2019, only one on top winner ($19.20 in Race 6) but let’s progress off of that this week.
RACE 1: 7-4-6-1
7-UNCLE B won the Claiming Crown Emerald last time out on opening day of the meet at odds of 36-1, but aside from his race 2 back has been consistently running a 90 or above BRIS speed figure under Lilli Kurtinecz. Irad Ortiz rides today, and the last two times he has ridden resulted in a win. 4-Marksman is very intriguing to me, even though it is a class jump for him and his numbers don’t match up to top choice. Does come in off of a win at Tampa last out and in the money 5 of last 6. Daniel Centeno, who doesn’t have a ride at the meet so far, is scheduled to ride today, his only mount on the card. Interesting he would make the trip for 1 race. 6-Race Me Home was 3rd of 12 versus similar last race. Had been running on dirt mainly before trying turf again in that effort. Seems to have a strong closing kick.
RACE 2: 3-2-6
3-MONEY PURSE looks to finally graduate today against this week group(36-0-5-5) though she will likely be a short price. Honestly, I could never bet her in this race as a stand-alone on top, I would never bet anyone in this race like that because no one in here instills any confidence in me. However, if you must play this race, or you’re looking at any early pick 3 or 4 that this race falls in, then MONEY PURSE looks like the logical winner. Yes, he disappointed badly last out as the 6-5 favorite vs MC $16K company, but has ran well versus 20-30K MC’rs last summer, and will probably be better 2nd off the layoff. Maybe that last full effort even drives her odds up a bit. 2-Starship Saturn hasn’t ran in 21 months, but when she was last seen did run a decent 3rd vs today’s level. Normally I run the opposite way from horses coming back off that big of a layoff, but that should show how weak this field is to me. 6-Magic Maker comes in off three consecutive show finishes, was decently bet in all 3 races, so may challenge top choice for favoritism. Does seem to have good early speed so the key for her will be for Paco Lopez to get her out the gate without incident, either on the lead or pressuring early leader.
RACE 3: 1-7-3
1-STRONGER KAT went two turns on turf last out, switches back to dirt, 1 turn and drops down to today’s $12.5K level. Hasn’t really showed much ability but hoping the class drop and switch to high percentage trainer Saffie Joesph (29% first off claim, 4 of last 8 dropping off a claim) not to mention switch to Irad Ortiz in the saddle can turn things around. 7-Begin is also going turf to dirt and route to sprint for Armando De La Cerda, who’s 25% and 24% at those angle respectively. Also taking class drop from MC 20K. 3-Vicky Apple has ran even efforts her first two career races which sometimes is a sign that maybe she wants two turns. Does come out of a key MC $35K race on November 23rd where the top 3 all came back to win their next start.
RACE 4: 3-8-2
3-KAYLIE’S GIRL is a 2nd chance play for me, liked her 2 weeks ago but she ran midpack, beaten less than 2 lengths at almost 10-1. Aside from her clinker two back, has ran well 3 of her last 4 starts and should be a good price again today. Will either be on or close to the lead. 8-Pretty Shea D is moving down from 16Kn2L for John Servis(30% multiple class level drop) and turf to dirt(25%), the last time on dirt she broke her maiden at MC 20K level. Another who will be showing good early speed, but her price will be short the drop to today’s level after running a credible 3rd at a higher level is a bit of a red flag. 2-Paola will be coming from off the pace and could be the play here if the track comes up wet.
RACE 5: 9-12-8
9-TIZ LUNA was mid pack of 10 last out versus today’s level and though he doesn’t have an ITM finish, has ran well in his 4 career turf starts. Taking blinkers off today and should be a good price for low percentage trainer/owner Luis Luna, and does get Paco Lopez, a 21% turf jock, aboard. 12-Mr. Nobody looks to become somebody today here, and his last two efforts would probably win today. Will try to get some position breaking from the outside, as he normally likes to sit a little off the pace early. David Brady is 6 of last 24 with a beaten favorite. 8-Knowledge makes 2nd career start for Larry Pilotti, who’s 26% in a horse’s 2nd start. Goes sprint to route and should be better prepared for this race today. Irad Ortiz retains mount.
RACE 6: 8-7-1
8-A BIT OF BOTH may end up one of the shortest prices on today’s card, and for good reason. Though she has just one race under her belt, it was a dominant 11 length gate to wire win. Switches to Jason Servis, who’s 32% off of a long layoff, 40% with maiden winners in their last race, and he and Irad are 43% together their last 23 together. Looking at Bris pace figures should find herself on the early lead again today. Not going to say I cannot see her lose, but unless she has a mishap I’d be surprised if she didn’t win today. 7-Miss Harry ran 3rd vs today’s level last out and is cutting back from 7 furlongs. Was a beaten favorite that day but obviously don’t see her as that today unless the top choice scratches. Will probably be stalking the 8 early on. 1-Corn Off The Cob(I like mine on personally) adds blinkers, switches from turf. Ran 3rd vs this level two back.
RACE 7: 7-6-2
7-BARGAINAIRE bumped at the start in last start, tried to challenge before weakening. Two back ran the highest BRIS speed figure anyone in the race has ran. Should have options tactic-wise breaking from post 7 of 8. 6-Midnight Miracle has never crossed the wire worse than third in career, did get dq’d out of a win to 4th, and is dropping from a $50K OC. Is also making first start away from Southern California. Main downside is will probably be a short price again today considering was even money in previously mentioned outing. 2-Abaco Dream comes in for Wesley Ward, who is 4 of 8 at the meet so far, and is dropped to lowest level of career. Should be forwardly places today.
RACE 8: 7-4-2
7-CALL ME KAYLA was a very nice price for us the first Thursday of the meet, and should be again today facing winners for the first time. Like that Maker continues to have confidence with her, in her previous win was stepped up in claiming price, today is entered in Starter Allowance company rather than put back in for a tag. Should be coming from off the pace as she was in her win. 4-Fast Track Kathern did little in her last but has ran well on turf for the most part. Won here 10 months ago in a $20 claimer. 2-Keira was ;th of 9 last out in an entry level allowance. If the turf comes up soft probably rates the most dangerous contender.
RACE 9: 6-2-5
6-QUASAR MOON rolled to an almost 4 length win in first start on dirt last out when stalking the pace early. Pletcher 24% second off the layoff, 26% with maiden winners last race. Luis Saez retains the mount. 2-Star Player also graduated last outing and makes first start for Jorge Navarro (27%) has two consecutive wins at the distance, though one of them was a two turn mile. Will be forwardly places but I think might be a mistake to bid for the lead early as there are other in here who appear faster early on. 5-Gran Paraiso also broke his maiden in last, and cones in for the formidable team of Barboza and Jaramillo, who have won half of the last 24 teaming up together.
RACE 10: 6-9-8-3