Ugh … I went 0-for-10 last Friday. Hoping for better luck today.
RACE 1: Maiden claiming $25,000, five furlongs, turf
In the last two seasons, trainer Armando De La Cerda is 10-for-75 with horses making their first starts of the meet. His horse #8 LOVE OF GLORY is making a big class drop (going from MSW 64k to maiden claiming $25,000). De La Cerda is 9-for-27 (.33 winning percentage) with horses going down in class. Top GP jockey Emisael Jaramillo will be riding as well. #9 R CALLI KIM is trained by Georgina Baxter who’s having a great meet so far (14 5 3 3 .36). She’s 0-for-1 with FTSers at GP, but she is batting .33 this year overall with FTSers. She wins a lot of races for today’s connections (Averill Racing, 2-for-20, .20) and she’s got a good jock riding, Edgard Zayas (63 9 9 4 .14 at GP). But then there’s the big elephant in the room #12 DROP A HINT is trained by the big fish in the small pond Todd Pletcher. Irad Ortiz, one of his favorite go-to jocks, is riding as well (trainer-jock combo: 16 .15 AVG. ROI $7.86)
Picks: 12-8-9
RACE 2: Claiming $8,000N3X, 1 1/16 mile, dirt
The race where any horse can win on any given day. I sense a long shot winning race this one. #2 MISS ALIPHANT won two races back against 10,000N2L and she is well suited in this group. This mare also place ITM (second and third) at LRL vs. $16,000 claimers. #3 HILLTOP HARMONY is also worth a look. She ran a career high Beyer of 75 last time out vs. $12,500 claimers, She is making her second start of the meet and trainer Robert Hess is 3-for-11 with a .27 winning percentage with horses making their second start at GP. Jockey Nik Juarez gets the call and the trainer-jock combo does well (13 .15 AVG. ROI $1.45). #5 MYFRANCESCA has also fared well against tougher company (second in a 10,000 claimer N2L) and might upset this field.
PICKS: 5-2-3
RACE 3: Maiden Claiming $50,000, five furlongs, turf
#1 JADES JELLY looks like the strong favorite here. Trainer Jorge Navarro is the big fish in the pond at GP (83 14 12 12 .17). Top national jock Javier Castellano gets the ride. This filly placed second last time out and in the last two years Navarro has done well with horses making their second start of the meet. Check this stat out (second start at GP: 112 27 .24). Claiming races are his bread and butter too (187 49 .26 in last two meets). The one to beat. #6 SUMMER SANGRIA is also worth a look. She faced tougher company at SAR and AQU in MSW races. Now she’s running with a $50,000 price tag and trainer Wesley Ward is batting .17 this year with MSW to MCL races. The trainer-jock combo of Ward-Johnny Velasquez is 6 .17 AVG. ROI $0.17. #11 is Navarro’s other entry GIBBY’S GEM. This will be the filly’s first start ever. Navarro is 25 .24 AVG. ROI $2.54 with FTSers and 1-for-4 with FTSers in the last two years. Emisael Jaramillo is his favorite go-to jockey (94 .18 AVG. ROI $1.27) and has 24 wins in the last two years for the connections Joseph Besecker (81 24 .30). That’s a good stat.
Picks: 11-6-1
RACE 4: Maiden claiming $12,500, six furlongs, dirt
I like #1 CHARLIE ONE. On paper, this gelding is winnable but today’s jockey Miguel Arroyo is 0-for-20. That doesn’t bode any confidence for me. #5 BLESSED BY THE BEST has the chops to win. In the last two years, trainer Jorge Delgado is 4-for-14 with first starts of the meet (.29 winning percentage at GP) and 4-for-10 with first claims (.40 winning percentage at GP). His favorite go-to jockey is Tyler Gaffalione (8-for-18 .44 in the last two years at GP) and is 5-for-16 for the connections Joker Racing LLC. The only other horse I like is #6 RISK FOR REWARD. The gelding is 3-for-3 in his last three races and he’s trained by Ralph Nicks, who is also having a great meet this year (40 10 8 4 .25). Give him a look too.
PICKS: 5-6-1
RACE 5: Claiming $30,000, one mile, turf
#1 VERDICT IS IN almost won at this distance two back with jockey Joe Bravo. Bravo gets the ride again and this is a good level for this gelding. He also has consistent 60+Beyers (the highest in the field) so that’s another thing to consider. #3 DRAMA IN DIXIE almost won against $50K claimers two back at GPW at today’s distance. Gets a jock switch to Tyler Gaffalione who is 15 .27 AVG. ROI $3.16 with trainer David Fawkes. #4 HE’S SUPER LUCKY won last time out and trainer Kathy Ritvo is batting .20 with horses that won their last start, which is what this gelding did on Dec. 26 at GP. Her favorite go-to jockey Luis Saez is riding and the trainer-jock combo is 11 .27 AVG. ROI $1.64. #6 KING OF RANCH is the dark horse. Never heard of the trainer Amador Sanchez but he’s having a pretty good meet so far (54 6 6 6 .11). Colt won last time out and earned a Beyer of 64, among the best in the field. Sanchez is 23 .17 AVG. ROI $1.54 with horses that won last time out and the trainer-jock combo with Hector Berrios is 100 .20 AVG. ROI $.2.39. Impressive, but I’m going with Saez in this one. He gets his first win of the day.
PICKS: 4-6-3-1
RACE 6: Maiden Special Weight $50,000, 1 1/16th mile, turf
A lot of heavy hitters in this one and I mean trainers. Christophe Clement, Mark Henning, Chad Brown, Michael Maker and Kenneth McPeak each have a horse in what should be a very entertaining MSW race. You got #1 SENATOR trained by Clement. Clement is 5-for-30 in MSW races over the last two years and according to DRF, he’s batting .26 with first time starters which is what we have today. McPeak’s horse #3 OMEGA STORM (BRA) and Hennig’s horse #4 BETTERMENT will be gunning for the lead but there are three quality horses that will be blazing down the stretch in the final furlongs. #2 OPUS NORTH is a Woodbine shipper ridden by Johnny V. with 70+ Beyers. Brown’s horses #5 RAKEEZ and #9 STARE DECISIS will also be flying late. Javier Castello is riding RAKEEZ while Irad Ortiz is riding STARE DECISIS. And then you have #8 PALACE KITTEN who also has a shot. This colt’s trainer-jockey combo (Jose Ortiz) wins at a .30 clip. It’s a tough call but my head says a Chad Brown horse will win. Brown wins everything, especially when one of his horses is owned by Klavarich Stables (11-for-42 at GP .26 winning percentage). STARE DECISIS is owned Klavarich.
PICKS: 9-1-4
RACE 7: Claiming $8,000, one mile, dirt
#3 SI ES GOYA is 6-for-7 finishing ITM. That’s an impressive stat. Gelding has been close in many of those. A win has gotta come his way. #4 DRAGUNOV is making a class drop after facing tougher claiming company in his last two races. Trainer Armando De La Cerda is 9-for-27 in class drops in the last two years. Winning claiming races is his forte and Irad Ortiz is his go-to jock (trainer-jock combo is .29). #6 LOVE NEST has had some bad races recently but this horse has won before at this distance while making a turf-to-dirt switch (and earned an 81 Beyer to boot). Apprentice jockey Cristan Torres gets the nod and I expect this horse to be in ITM at least.
PICKS: 6-4-3
RACE 8: Claiming $16,000N2X, one mile, turf
#6 CHICLET’S DREAM is trained by Chad Brown and he is clearly the big big fish in this small pond. I’ll leave it there. I like #3 VELVET ISLE who is trained by Kathleen O’Connell. She is one of the top trainers at TAM and she has success at GP as well. She’s 35 3 5 7 .09 this year at GP and class-wise, this filly is well-suited in this group. She likes jockey Luca Panici and the trainer-jock combo is solid (6 .16 AVG. ROI $2.87). Panici was riding this filly the last time they won and that was a maiden claiming $40,000 race. That’s another plus. #2 SISTER GEMA is my other favorite. She also won a maiden claiming $40,000 race and is well-suited for this class. Filly is making her second start of the season at GP and trainer Jena Antonucci is 4-for-30 .13 winning percentage in the last two years with horses making their second start of the meet. I won’t be surprised if CHICLET’S DREAM wins this, but I’ll still go with the underdog.
PICKS: 3-6-2
RACE 9: Optional claiming $35,000/N1X, six furlongs, dirt
#4 HIDDEN SCROLL is going to be tough to beat. Had a promising career as a three-year-old but Hall of Fame trainer William Mott put him on the shelf for a year. Now he’s back. What popped out for me is his five bullet workouts, consistent high Beyers (80+) and has won before at GP. Mott doesn’t have many sprint horses running at GP but when they do they win (7-for-28 .25 winning percentage in last two years). He also wins races for the connections Juddmonte Farms (4-for-9 .44 winning percentage in the last two years). The other big stat is first race off a layoff. Mott is 23-for-114 .20 winning percentage and .51 ITM. That’s good. I like #3 CAJUN FIRECRACKER. This gutsy colt has won all over the map last year and trainer Saffie Joseph is hot right now at GP (54 15 12 4 .28). He specialty is dirt sprints (18-for-77 .23 winning percentage in last two years) and he’s 13-for-56 with first starts of the meet. This will be CAJUN FIRECRACKER’S first start as well. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione wins a lot for Joseph as well (13-for-34 .38 winning percentage in the last two years). CAJUN FIRECRACKER also came in second in his last race, a $125k stakes race at TAM. I like this colt. #7 SNIPER SHOT is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Johnny V. so not much more needs to be said. The gelding last ran at KEE in a 6 ½ furlong contest. He placed second and earned a 97 Beyer (the highest in the field). I’m gonna bet against SNIPER SHOT because whenever I bet on a Pletcher horse, it always finished out of the money. Meh … The other horse to look at is #1 WHO’S OUT just because he’s trained by Jorge Navarro. Navarro is one of the best in dirt sprints (49-for-178 .28 winning percentage in the last two years). He is also batting .27 with horses making their second start off a layoff and .24 with horses making their second start of the meet. WHO’S OUT is doing both. Navarro has won four races for the winning connections Ron Hendrickson and jockey Luis Saez has won four races for Navarro as well the last two years. Can’t dismiss this horse either.
PICKS: 3-1-4-7
RACE 10: Claiming $16,000, 1 1/16 of a mile, turf
Another any horse can win on any given day race.
PICKS: 9-10-4
Good luck.