I had three winners last week that paid $17.20 grand total LOL! Here’s my last analysis for 2019. May you all have a better year at the betting windows!
RACE 1: Claiming $16,000N2L, a mile and 1/16th, turf
Yikes! A bunch of fillies that are reluctant to win LOL. I guess I gotta go with #2 CHASING HELICITY. Seems like it’s the only filly who’s placed well in her last three races – 3-5-1. Filly will be ready go. The others have PPs that are too scary to look at. I do like #7 LA INCONDICIONAL. Trainer Rohan Crichton is having a good meet (22 4 4 2 .18) and has a high winning percentage for first races off the claim (26 .35 AVG. ROI $2.29). Worth a look as well.
Picks: 2-7-4
RACE 2: Maiden $12,500, 6 ½ furlongs on dirt
This is gonna come down to two horses #5 GAMBIT and #7 BLESSED BY THE BEST. GAMBIT came close to winning his last three races (3-3-4) and BLESSED BY THE BEST (3-2-3). Both have spectacular trainers (George Arnold and Jorge Delgado respectfully). Arnold wins big for his connections Preston Madden (2-for-13, .15 .23 ITM) and Delgado even more successful for Joker Racing (5-for-16, .31 .88 ITM). I’m going with #5 GAMBIT because he’s faced tougher horses on the Kentucky circuit. #1. LITTLE GUY could upset too, going with first time blinkers for trainer Carlo Vaccarezza. LITTLE GUY also has hot GP jockey Emisael Jaramillo riding too.
Picks: 5-7-1
RACE 3: Claiming $35,000N3L, one mile on turf
On paper #6 CODRINGTON should win this race but I’m gonna go with #2 NIGHT WATCH. NIGHT WATCH is trained by Stanley Gold who wins often for Arindel (144 14 .10 .41 ITM). The jockey-trainer angle is hot too (28 .32 AVG. ROI $3.41 at GP). Filly is 3-10-3-1 in last four races and should be the sleeper with CODRINGTON and #3 BELLA PORTE in the mix.
Picks: 2-3-6
RACE 4: Claiming $12,500, six furlongs on dirt
This race is gonna come down to the Ortiz brothers and I think Irad will win this over over Jose. Irad will be riding #1 BLACK PEPPER for trainer Ruben Gracida who’s doing well early in the meet (5 2 2 0 .40). Gracida is changing it up for this gelding (route-to-sprint .30 AVG. ROI $2.19 and turf-to-dirt 21 .17 AVG. ROI $1.28). BLACK PEPPER IS 10-1-4-1 in his last four races and the trainer-jock combo is good too (5. 40 AVG. ROI $2.16). Brother Jose is riding #7 STARSHIP APOLLO for perennial top GP trainer Jorge Navarro. Gelding is 2-4-2-2 in last four races but doesn’t have the strong early and late pave numbers compared to BLACK PEPPER (82-75). Advantage – Irad.
Picks: 1-7-2
RACE 5: Claiming $16,000N2L, mile and 1/16, turf
#3 KARENINA is my pick for race 5. Trainer Rohan Crichton is a successful trainer on turf and he’s having a great meet so far (22 4 4 2 .18). Filly is 6-2-3-2 in last four races and Edgard Zayas has won for Crichton as well .10. I’d choose #8 SASSY JUSTICE but the trainer is 0-for-15 with horses than won last time out. Not a good numbers play IMO. Filly is 1-2-3-6 in last four races too. Looks good on paper but that one stat sticks out for me.
Picks: 3-8-7
RACE 6: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 7 ½ furlongs on turf
Tough one to handicap. Several fillies could win this one. On paper #4 WICKED SOLUTION should win this. Trainer Michael Maker won three turf sprints in the last two years. He’s won 15+ races for the connections and jockey Irad Ortiz gets the nod – 30% winning percentage with this trainer-jock combo. But there are two other trainers who excel at turf sprints. #6 FAST FRACTION is trained by Joseph Saffie (17 starts 4 wins .24 winning percentage) but jockey Chris Landeros is 0-for-16 at GP – pass. #8 LA FLAMENCA is trained by Marcial Navarro (8 4 .50 75% ITM in turf sprints) and hot jock Emisael Jaramillo will ride. The trainer-jock combo is 4-for-10 with a .40 winning percentage and 60% ITM. Tough tough call. I’ll go with LA FLAMENCA. Jaramillo gets his first win of the day.
Picks: 8-4-6
RACE 7: Claiming $6,250, one mile on dirt
The saddest of the sad 🙁 . Anyone can win at this level. #6 PEPPI THE HUNTER seems like the obvious favorite – A Jorge Navarro gelding making a big class drop from a stakes race. Navarro does well with class drops (62 17 .27 .60 ITM in the last two years). #9 FRENCH QUARTER is trained by Michael Maker who also does well on class drops (48 9 .19 .44 ITM). Jaramillo is riding PEPPI THE HUNTER and Irad Ortiz is riding FRENCH QUARTER. Two good trainer-jock combos. Take your pick. Another horse that could pick up the pieces is #10 LOVE TREE. This gelding looks intriguing. Trainer Peter Walder is having a good meet so far (14 2 6 2 .14) and jockey Paco Lopez will be riding (90 12 8 .23) with a 24% winning percentage for this jockey-trainer combo. Tough call here.
Picks: 6-10-9
RACE 8: Claiming $16,000, five furlongs on turf
I’m going with #4 POCKET CHANGE. Seems to be the best of the field. Trainer Jason Service is a master at turf sprints and bats .20 in class drops over the last two years. More importantly he wins most of his races for the connections – Gary and Mary West (22 1 .50 .73 ITM). Has the best front speed figs in of the entire field and Irad gets his second win of the day. I also like #5 BLACK JET (bats .25 in turf sprints) and Luis Saez gets the nod. Can’t toss out #1 AMELIA’S WILD RIDE either. I don’t like the fact he’s breaking from post 1, he’s 1-for-5 coming out of the one-slot, but it should go off at nicer odds. Trainer Jane Cibelli is also a turf sprint specialist too (6-for-29, .21 winning percentage and .38 ITM).
Picks: 4-5-1
RACE 9: Optional Claiming $62,000/N2X, 6 ½ furlongs on dirt
Today’s main event. This should go to #2 PROMO CODE. Colt is the best in terms of front end speed and is going for his third straight win. The Todd Pletcher-Luis Saez-Bortolozzo Stable triple combination will be hard to beat as well. They win often. Those gunning for him will be #6 J S BACH and #7 BENEFACTOR. Lopez rides on J S BACH and Irad Ortiz rides on BENEFACTOR. The latter hit a 103 Beyer three races back and could be primed to run another triple Beyer. The dark horse will be #1 MOONOVERSEEBA. Jose Ortiz rides this one for trainer Eddie Kenneally. Although this colt looks weaker compared to the other three listed above, the trainer-jock combo is good (26 .31 AVG. ROI $2.52). This colt has won three times from post one and was recently claimed. Kenneally is (46 .36 AVG. ROI $2.64) on first claimed winners. Can’t overlook that. Who will I go with?
Picks: 2-7-1-6
RACE 10: Maiden claiming $20,000, one mile on turf
I’m going with #3 DONEGAL ACES. It’s trainer Danny Gargan who does well with maiden claimers on turf routes. Luis Saez gets his first win of the day on the last race of the day. Almost won against high-priced claimers at BEL back in September (he even recorded a 78 Beyer in that race). No others have come close to that. My easy bet of the day.
Pick: 3