Here we go with Friday’s picks at GP.
RACE 1: Claiming $6,250 one mile on dirt
I expect #3 INFINITY SKY to be bet on heavily. Filly is consistent and has the highest Beyers of the field. I’m going to go with #5 DURLYN. This filly can compete with the likes of INFINITY SKY and she is 5-for-9 at today’s distance. Trainer Juan Avila is having a solid meet (11 2 1 2 .18) and jockey Emisael Jaramillo has had a superb year in the irons (77 18 7 11 .23).
Picks 5-3-1
RACE 2: Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 ½ furlongs on dirt
First baby race of the day. I’m going with #5 ALLABOUTTHEDRAMA. Filly has improved since her FTS and finished fourth against tougher company last time out (by only a length). Trainer David Carlos does well with horses running with first time blinkers (8 .25 AVG. ROI $3.88) and blinkers on (10 .30 $3.74 AVG. ROI).
Picks 5-4-1
RACE 3: Optional claimer $16,000/N1X, 6 furlongs on dirt
Lotta good fillies and mares in this race. I’m gonna go with one that should go off at nicer odds #6 DAY BY DAY. Mare likes GP and won at this distance here back on Jan. 1 and recorded an 81 Beyer. I expect bettors will pour money on #4 MIDTOWN ROSE (similar Beyers, consistent ITMs and Irad Ortiz) and #1 DISTINCTIVE LADY (29% winning percentage on 7 days rest and 20% won last race). Each of them have a chance at winning. I’ll go with the one who goes off at higher odds.
Picks 6-4-1
RACE 4: Claiming $25,000, one mile on dirt
First baby race of the day (two-year-olds). I like #2 AMELIA MADELYN. Trainer Rohan Crichton is having a good meet so far (16 3 3 1 .19) and he does very well with two-year-olds (38 .28 AVG. ROI $4.07). Might be chalky because Irad Ortiz will ride and the filly’s chances of winning gets better when he’s in the irons. Ortiz will get his first win of the day.
Picks 2-3-4-5
RACE 5: Maiden claiming $50,000, 6 ½ furlongs on dirt
The no-brainer race of the day. I’m going with #1 SILVER PALICE. Trainer is the legendary Todd Pletcher and MAXMIMUM SECURITY jockey Luis Saez gets the ride. Pletcher wins 23% with FTSs, 21% with first time maiden claimers and 20% with two-year-olds. It’s gonna be hard to bet against this combo with these stats to back it up.
Picks 1-7-6
RACE 6: Claiming $16,000, 1 1/16 mile on turf
First sod race of the day. Again, I’m going for value in this race. #8 PAINT THE CORNERS may be the best. Ran an 83 Beyer back in May at this distance at GP. The mare obviously likes this distance and this track. Didn’t do well last time out, so trainer Murat Sancal is switching jockeys from Carlos Lugo to Luis Saez. That should shake things up for the win.
Picks: 8-4-2
RACE 7: Allowance $47,000 N1X, seven furlongs
I think this race is gonna come down to the best in speed and the best in closing. #3 NONNA MADELINE (the speed horse) is trained by Pletcher, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, regally bred by WinStar Farm and is taking a big class drop after facing graded stakes company. #4 is GORGEOUS IN RAGS (the closing horse). This filly comes in from the Kentucky circuit and placed ITM in three-out-of-four of her last races. Irad Ortiz is riding her and I think she’ll nip NONNA MADELINE in the final furlong. It will be close.
Picks: 4-3-5-6
RACE 8: Optional claimer $25,000/Starter allowance $16,000, one mile on turf
Tough race to handicap. A lot of talent in this race and they all appear the same in ability, wins, ITMs, Beyers, etc. #9 CAUSE FOR PARDON is worth a look. Came in show in a GP stakes race back in September. Jockey J.J. Castellano is the jockey and he’s one of the top in the country. Gelding is 7-for-15 ITM at this distance with two wins. Should go off at nice odds too given the other talent in this field.
Picks: 9-4-6-8
RACE 9: Optional claimer $75,000/N1X, one mile on dirt
A lot of good colts and geldings to choose from. I think the one with the best shot is #3 MASTERDAY. Check out these stats for trainer Gilberto Zerpa – 33% winning percentage for two-year-old races, sprint-to-route 22%, won last time out 31% and add in there two back-to-back bullet workouts. Luis Saez gets his second win of the day as well.
Picks: 3-1-2-6
RACE 10: Maiden claiming $20,000, mile and 1/16 on turf
Last race of the day, usually the best race for long shots to win (at least in my experience). #10 ROONEY seems like the most consistent filly in this field. Placed ITM in two-out-of her last 3 races and hasn’t thrown a stinker race … yet. Faced higher priced claimers at IND three back and came in show. This is a slight class drop and she made have the goods to win.
9-1-8