Hey everyone I’m back! Today is my birthday and I can’t think of a better way to spend it than by handicapping at the Daily Gallop. Grateful to be covering Friday’s races at Gulfstream Park. Here we go.
RACE 1: Maiden Claimer $12,500, one mile on dirt
I’m gonna go with #4 LOOKING FOR MORE. The Beyer par for this race is 50 and this filly met it. Lost by a neck last time out at GPW and the amazing Irad Ortiz gets the ride. She’s got good early speed too. I expect Irad will have his filly stalking the leaders and make her move at the turn.
#2. LADY NOELLA is going off at nicer odds (6-1) but is inconsistent. Has more early speed than LOOKING FOR MORE and ran a 53 Beyer. TAM trainer Kathleen O’Connell ships her in for this race. Worth a look.
RACE 2: Maiden Claimer $20,000, 1 1/16 mile on turf
I expect #1. ROAD TO PEACE and #2. SOUTH POINTE DRIVE to be flying late. I’m going with SOUTH POINTE DRIVE because he’s got experience finishing ITM breaking from the inside post. Gelding meets the Beyer par and has shown improvement since his FTS. Trainer Michael Lerman bats 25% with a $4.03 ROI with horses that run two races off a layoff. That’s what we have here.
#9 HIGHWAY FLYER is my long shot (8-1). Jockey Emisael Jaramillo will shoot for the lead from the outside post and may have enough speed to hold off the closers. Gelding faced better competition on the New York circuit. Definitely worth consideration.
RACE 3: Claiming $12,500N3L, one mile on dirt
I’m gonna go with #7 CREATIVE AWARD. Irad Ortiz gets his second win of the day. Filly has a lot of front speed and should be able to hold off the late flyers – #2 VICKY APPLE and #5 MISS ALIPHANT. CREATIVE AWARD trainer Robert Dibona wins often with sprint to route moves (20%) and 40% with two sprints prior before switching up to a route race. On paper, this looks good.
RACE 4: Maiden $50,000, 1 1/16 mile on turf
Two-year-old high priced claimers for this race. I like #10 RAPSTOREROCKS. A lot of front end speed in this race could lead to a pace meltdown (I hope at least). Picking up the pieces will be this closer. Luis Saez gets the ride and he’ll get his first win of the day.
RACE 5: Maiden $12,500, 6 furlongs on dirt
I like #8 ROY B EVANS. Jose Ortiz gets his first win of the day. Trainer Georgina Baxter does well with dirt sprints. She also has a 22% winning percentage with maiden second time starters and a 27% winning percentage with turf-to-dirt switches. On paper, this colt should win it all.
RACE 6: Claiming $12,500, 6 furlongs on dirt
This looks like a good battle between the Ortiz brothers. Jose rides #1 ARCELOR who won at a six-panel race at PRX in October and recorded a 80 Beyer in the effort. Trainer Jorge Navarro does really well with horses who won last time out this year (385 .34 AVG. ROI $1.73). Irad rides #2 PRINCESS LATINA. She has the same speed figures as ARCELOR and ran a 79 Beyer at this distance on Aug. 30 on this track. I see a showdown looming between these two. But I’m biased toward closers whenever there’s too much front-end speed. #7 WORTH AVENUE should be up there to pick up the pieces. Jockey Rajiv Maragh gets the ride and the win with WORTH AVENUE.
RACE 7: Claiming $6,250N3L, 6 furlongs on dirt
With low-price claimers who haven’t won more than two races lifetime, any horse can win on any given day. I’m gonna put my money on #8 GRAN GREYFROST. Trainer Najib Aboughaida has been hot out of the gate (7 3 3 1 .43), that’s seven-for-seven for ITM. He’s also a good percentage play on first races after a claim (25% with an AVG ROI $2.54) and 33% switching from turf to dirt. Colt takes a slight class drop as well. Apprentice jockey Cristan Torres surprises everyone with the win.
RACE 8: Allowance/Optional Claiming $12,000/N1X, one mile on dirt
The no-brainer race. A small field and one filly with all the class to win it. I like #1 FLASHING DIAMOND. The filly has an eye-popping 118 speed rating. Her rivals aren’t even close. Jockey Irad Ortiz gets the ride and his third win of the day!
RACE 9: Starter Allowance 50K/Optional Claiming 50K, one mile on dirt
Another baby race. This one will come down the inside and outside post horses. #1. PERFECT REVENGE can pick up the pieces late. The WO shipper has competed well in high price claimer races and comes with a $50,000 price tag and Jose Ortiz to boot. Generous odds as well, 8-1. But #8 DRAMA IN DIXIE has the most front end speed and jockey Joe Bravo on board. I think this colt can hang on for the win.
RACE 10: Claiming $16,000N2L, one mile on turf
Another race where any horse can win on any given day. #11 ELITE APPEAL has the most consistency as far as I can see. Filly has been ITM since March and faced tougher competition this year. Trainer Eddie Plesa is having a fine meet so far (8 2 1 1 .25) and what’s not to like about him? He’s often successful with horses on the stretch-out (sprint to route) and he’s got a 21% winning percentage going beyond 7 panels. Worth a look.
Good luck everyone.