Hello racing fans and welcome to the last Thursday of racing before Christmas for Gulfstream Park. Last Thursday was pretty forgettable, as an overnight rain ruined the analysis that I had. Let’s hope for better luck this week!
RACE 1: 3-2-6
I went with who I thought the speed would probably be in here, 3-FIXED POINT. Yes he’s only been up front early one race in his career, but to me was no coincidence that resulted in his lone victory. He ran 103 and 105 E1 and E2 pace figs in that race respectively. It’s also little coincidence he’s ran his two highest speed figures after being claimed from a very low percentage barn. 2-Green Mansions was 5th at this level last out but was checked at the start, still made up over 5 lengths in stretch. Before that had a two race win streak, both at the distance. 6-Singanothersong could be the early speed if it’s not my top choice, but hasn’t been on turf since July, when he scored easily at this level at Penn a National. Has ran very competitive his last two at $30 and $40K OC’s while in for the tag, which makes this class drop suspicious. Frankly, I don’t trust Navarro as far as I can throw him
RACE 2: 8-1-3
8-MEMORIZE graduated from n2L last out in style, romping to s 3 length win in her first race with Carlos Hernandez aboard. Hoping that the rider change made the difference in her and she can “Memorize” a repeat performance today. 1-Nikki Bella drops heavily in class and the Jaramillo/Barbaoza combo has been downright lethal, hitting 54% their last 24 together. Believe she will be showing speed from the gate, and the rail has done very well at this 6 furlong distance so far.
RACE 3: 7-1-5
This race lacks early pace, and even though I’m thinking 6-Mystical Myles is faster early than 7-NO DINERO, I believe the latter will be pressed right on his flank early on before taking over. Has ran well 3 of his last four and has only been out of the money once at today’s distance. 1-Nuclear Code admittedly did nothing last out but hoping the class drop helps him out today. This one moves up if it’s an off track.
RACE 4: 6-2-1
This $50 Optional Claimer features Delta Bluesman, but going to try and beat him with 6-MUSICAL HEART, who qualifies under the conditions here because he ran for a tag early on in his career, but since being claimed by Aubrey Maragh has not been in for a tag since. Has won his last two races and has never been out of the money in 5 tries on fast dirt. 2-Delta Bluesman has earned over three quarters of a million the hard way, and is coming off a win last out in a $25K OC. Could see him out front early here.
RACE 5: 9-2-13
This maiden claimer going two turns on turf features several that are dropping from the MSW ranks, one of them is 9-IRIDESCENT MOM, who did run an okay middle of the pack 6th in debut at Aqueduct last December in only turf start. Has had 11 months to mature for Mark Casse, who has Paco Lopez riding here. These two teamed up for a big price two weeks ago. While I don’t think this one will be anywhere near 60-1, still think she will be a decent price. 2-Miss Accuse is another dropping in for a claiming price for the first time. Ran well two back at Ellis last year. Another who’s been given time to grow up but the wild card here for both top picks is will the be ready to run off long layoffs?
RACE 6: 6-9-5
6-VINCERO comes in off a three race win streak and is first off the claim for Jorge Navarro (28%) and he’s 44% dropping a horse off a win. Is the cutback to 6 furlongs, a distance he’s never ran, a concern though? Not for me obviously. 9-Polar Jet ran 3rd versus this level last out as the 9/10 favorite but switches to Jose Ortiz, who’s not had much luck so far this meet but I cannot imagine that lasting long. Also believe Ortiz will have him closer to the pace than he has been lately
RACE 7: 9-6-5
9-INDA ZONE has flashed good speed early in his previous turf sprints and may find the class drop in for a tag to his benefit. Making first start for Ed Azpurua Jr today. 6-Recapture makes his second career start and turf debut for Patrick Byrne. Ran very close to the pace in debut at Churchill before fading a bit. 5-Exchange Forever has also shown good early speed vs protected maidens and is another that will benefit from the class relief for George Weaver, who is 2 for 2 to start off the meet.
RACE 8: 3-2-6
3-HEAVEN’S HUMOR is a perfect 2 for 2 but does stretch out beyond 6 furlongs for the first time in her career. However her running style suggests the added distance will not be a problem. Expect her to stalk the pace early on. 2-She Takes Heart is a veteran at this level and is in for the $62.5K tag today. Has been off a couple months and I expect her to be stalking the pace of 6-My Favorite Gift.
RACE 9: 4-8-5
4-WILLING TO SPEED broke his maiden last out at Aqueduct coming from off the pace, and that was with Rajiv Maragh aboard! Now gets in my mind a better turf rider in Luis Saez. Trainer John Kimmel is 22% with horses who broke their maiden last out. 8-Doctor D J beat a few of these in here today last time out at Gulfstream West. Another who will be coming off the pace chasing the ample speed that appears on paper.
RACE 10: 6-8-1-9