It’s Derby Week in the Bay Area. El Camino Real Derby to be exact. A birth to the Preakness will be on the line this Saturday afternoon. This week will also be a 5 day racing week going through President’s Day Monday. Quick review of last week here. Excellent racing put up with big fields and nice pool sizes paying off horse players. The late pick 4 pool on Sunday was over 200K. The golden pick 6 jackpot pool carryover is currently at 59,641. Just a tremendous week last week. Our top picks all finished in the money with four top pick winners (including one of our price plays) so we will look to continue that hot streak into today. In terms of horsemen, jockey Kent Desormeaux started getting to meet the winner circle last week with 4 wins out of 12 mounts. Juan Hernandez continues to dominate with 9 wins last week out of 26 mounts. Ricardo Gonzalez had 4 wins in 14 mounts, including an average off odds at nearly double digits. Gonzalez has creeped into third in the jockey standings winning at a 22% clip despite not as many mounts as the top 2. Trainer wise Jonathan Wong picked up 9 wins out of 22 entrants. In fact many trainers are having success with their win percentages including William Delia (28%) and Blaine Wright (25%). On the other side however jockey Brayan Pena has gone 0 for his last 24 dropping to 8%. Trainer Ed Moger Jr is 7% out of 57 starters. Victor Trujillo is 2 for 56 and Felix Rondan, Steve Specht, and D Wayne Baker are still winless at this meet. Expect another tremendous racing week here in the Bay Area. 8 races today and 9 tomorrow. Here are my picks for this Thursday afternoon.
Race 1: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Maiden Claiming 4 year olds & up (4-7-6)
4 Cyclops made an impressive return off a 10 month break last out missing by a head. He drops in class to the 12.5 condition and should sit close off the early speed. Looking for improvement second start off the layoff.
7 Ice Or Fire comes out of a common event to our top pick. He was stepping up in class that day and finished fourth beaten two lengths. Keep in mind the jock lost the whip in the stretch. His start two starts ago impressed me making up ground late which I expect to again today.
6 Rocky Roses is a first time starter. Trainer Andy Mathis strikes at 14% with his last 22 first timers. This horse has put up some quick morning workouts and in a race like this the firster might be primed to run a huge race.
Other to consider: 1 Winter Fog seems to run the same race over and over. He sets the speed and fades in the stretch. He puts blinkers on which might make a difference but I’m willing to play against this runner considering he is the morning line favorite.
Race 2: 1 Mile $5,000 Claiming 4 year olds & up (3-6-4)
3 Koa Cat is coming out of a race where he missed by a neck making up ground late. He has won 3 times at this 1 mile trip which is more than any other horse in the race. He will benefit especially if there’s a speed to chase. Also the price at 9/2 is intriguing however I’m not sure we’ll get that come post time.
6 Earnest is making his first start off a 2 month break. His last race was a starter allowance event and drops in for a claiming tag today. Two starts ago he cleared the n2L condition at this distance. My lone concern is the first start off a break but this horse certainly fits in with the group. Also Desormeaux is aboard.
4 Turnaround comes out of a common event with our top pick. He was second beaten a neck last time. He set the pace and got tired. I actually don’t like this horse on the lead. If Gonzalez can relax this horse to sit off the pace similar to his run two back he will be tough.
Other to consider: 1 Taste’s Legend is making a start first off the claim for the leading barn Jonathan Wong. His last race wasn’t impressive although that journey was 1/16 longer. Maybe the top connections of Hernandez and Wong will guide this runner back to the winners circle but will need to pick up some ground on foes he lost to last out.
Race 3: 5 Furlongs $8,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (3-2-4)
3 Commissioness will be our top pick here. In her first start off a 6 month break last time, she broke and bumped at the start. At the end she made up a ton of ground. If she has a clean trip she will be tough considering this is also her second start off the break.
2 Flashproof has run at this level and condition two times in a row. Both times she had the lead in the stretch before losing it late. I just don’t like how she always gets caught late. Just maybe she’ll go wire to wire if nobody contests with her.
4 Capo Vino makes her second start off a two month break. She stalked and made a mild rally last time. Another factor here is she’s finally off the rail. Her first two tries she drew the unfavorable rail position. Out in the middle of the pack should provide her a clean trip.
Others to consider: 7 Tiz the Standard is a 9 time maiden who has a knack for running the same races. If she’s in front early she will weaken late. If she comes from well out of it she picks up a minor award. Just don’t know if she’ll piece things together. 9 Pulpit Singer makes her first start of the year. She has slowly dropped down the class ladder. Maybe the break and a drop in class will get her freshened but not going to let her be the favorite.
Race 4: 1 Mile $16,000 Claiming F & M 4 & up (3-5-4)
3 Smiling Ann is our top pick here and will be one of our best bets of the day. There isn’t a ton of speed in this race. In fact a lot of runners do their best from off the pace. I expect Gonzalez to put this mare on or very near the lead. Her win last out was against a weaker group but she’s won against better before. Also she’s a 5 time winner going the mile journey.
5 Neon Gypsy goes from a sprint to a route. I expect this horse to set the pace with Desormeaux aboard. Her last win can’t be seen on the past performances but she hasn’t been outside the top 4. Expect this runner to try to hold off the closers here.
4 Splashing won very impressively last time as she rallied from well off the pace in a race where there wasn’t much pace to chase. Trainer Isidro Tamayo has done a great job with this mare.
Others to consider: 2 Gratzie isn’t a top pick because she needs a ton of speed up front. She comes from off the pace and won’t have any speed to chase. Respect this 10 time winning 9 year old but I’m leaning against this 9/5. 6 Please Do is a horse I’ve always been a fan of. Trainer Victor Trujillo reclaims this horse and puts her up the class ladder. Based on her recent form she will need to improve. Trujillo has done well off the claim.
Race 5: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Claiming F & M 4 & up (3-5-7)
3 Twirling Kimmy will be our price play of the day at 8/1. Ignore her race last out and you’re looking at a filly who cleared the n2L condition at this claiming price. Faced tougher last time and drops in class today. Hoping the price won’t drop too low.
5 Rolinga will be looking for two wins in a row since the barn change to Jonathan Wong. She has run her best races over the tapeta and should have a pace to chase. The hotter the fractions the better. Carries a similar tactic to our top pick here.
7 Songofthedesert is one of the speeds in this race. She drops back to the claiming price she was in two back where she was just caught late. She’s run into Mommy Rose (just came back and won again) her last two times. Won’t be surprised if she goes gate to wire if given the lone lead.
Other to consider: 4 Ixtapa’s Finest comes off a win at a lower level. She will step up the class ladder and hope she fits. 1 Becomes a Queen has two of her wins sprinting this 6 furlong clip. She could be heard from late wheeling back from a route to a sprint.
Race 6: 1 Mile $12,500 Claiming 3 year old Fillies (5-6-4)
5 Charlie’s Belle comes in off a couple second place finishes at this condition. She passed many runners coming from last to second last time. There might be a little more pace here with 1 & 7 up front and she’s made up ground with no pace to chase. Hopefully she won’t be too far out of it early.
6 Snow Pack exits common races with the top pick. She made up ground and finished third. She offers intrigue at 6/1 even though her double digit odds won’t be duplicated from last start.
4 Yangtze River broke the maiden sprinting on debut. She stepped up all the way to starter allowance company last time and even went by a couple runners late. The big drop back into this 12.5 claiming condition will help. Second time routing should bring some improvement.
Others to consider: 2 Brave Cinderella goes from sprints to a route and drops in class from starter allowance company. Question will be whether the distance is a problem. 3 Arouse N Go also drops out of starter allowance company. She comes back to the claiming tag in which she broke her maiden. Hasn’t run well in two tapeta starts although those were against tougher.
Race 7: 6 Furlongs $40,000 Claiming 4 year olds & up (3-4-7)
3 Passionate Reward has resurrected his career since coming up north. Hasn’t finished out of the exacta in four tries over the tapeta. He’s a fast horse that doesn’t need the lead. Expect him to sit right off the heavy speed duel wrs to pounce late. Exits a second level allowance race. Hernandez opts to ride this runner instead of the other so horse must be live.
4 Sequentially will be coming late from off the pace. Respect the 6 year old who has found the winners circle 7 times. Lone question mark I have is the jockey change to William Antongeorgi.
7 Pure Comedy is winless in his last 10 starts however he’s been close. Three seconds and four thirds to be exact. Jockey opts to ride another horse however this horse isn’t far out of it. Maybe new jock could turn things around.
Other to consider: 6 Oh Marvelous Me makes his first start in five months. He returns against a speedy group of runners. He will benefit from the quick pace and could sneak into the exotics underneath at 8/1.
Race 8: 5.5 Furlongs $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds (5-8-1)
5 Hula King takes the blinkers off and is dropping big in class. He debuted in a maiden 25 claimer but bumped and went 5 wide. Then his trainer brought him back against state bred maidens and was well over matched. Today the big drop back in class should bring improvement to this runner. Hoping for the 5/1 odds to hold up.
8 Backstreet’s Back makes his second start for trainer Greg James. In fact James is 30% (3 for his last 10) with second time maidens. Debuted against maiden 8s making up ground late. Must be doing well since he’s climbing up the ladder second time out.
1 Wonder of Autism draws an unfortunate rail post position. Made up ground last time missing by a neck. Repeat performance might just be too good but 8/5 might get shorter come post time.
Other to consider: 6 Sensational Rocket will put blinkers on after not showing up last time. Ran a nice debut but didn’t come back last out. High percentage barn merits respect at 3/1 but don’t know what went amiss last out. 4 Unusual Victory drops in class off a two month freshening. Blinkers also go on this colt. This one might be one to watch next out.
Best bets:
Race 4: Smiling Ann 5/2
Race 7: Passionate Reward 5/2
Price plays:
Race 5: Twirling Kimmy 8/1
Race 8: Hula King 5/1
Good luck! Let’s make some money for a big day Saturday.