Warren Wilson
Twitter: @HorseAnalystWW
Top Choice Season Statistics:
129 selections – 40 wins (31.01%) $2.00 Win bet ROI $2.57 (+28.5%)
Race 1 – 12:45pm (PST) 3 yr olds Mcl 12500 1 Mile All-Weather (Selections: 6-1)
Top Choice: (6) Linfield faced a tough bunch of older maiden $20k types on the turf a couple weeks ago and that should have him primed in this spot, dropping not only to $12.5k, but also back to his age group. Draws Hernandez and looks plenty live here at a short price.
Backup: (1) No More Fireball was much improved last out when dropping down. He showed solid speed for a half mile and then tired late. The stretch out to a mile should work in his favor being by Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver out of a Curlin mare. Could take them a long ways.
Race 2 – 1:15pm (PST) 3 yr olds and up Clm 6250 n2L 1 Mile All-Weather (Selections: 5-3)
Top Choice: (5) One Eyed Robin is coming into this race off a long layoff, but has been in training since Feb 23rd. Mr. Steiner has done very well with layoff types and this guy is a stone cold distance horse given his pedigree. Certainly fits this type of n2L group and could be best at first asking.
Backup: (3) Deepingreen has been running strong and steady at the mile trip sporting 6 straight superfecta appearances. 3 yr old is now in against older, but this is the time of the year the gap between the age groups narrows. Solid for exotics.
Race 3 – 1:45pm (PST) 3 yr olds Oclm 50000 n1x 1 Mile Turf (Selections: 5-6)
Top Choice: (5) Fly the Sky was unlucky last weekend when taken up at the 1/8th pole when seemingly closing into the picture. Jockey pretty much wrapped him up at that point, yet he still galloped out with interest. Now finds an easier group and a more suitable distance. Live on the short comeback.
Backup: (6) Sacred Rider also comes back on short rest after scoring a win at this very level and trip. Second place finisher was 6 lengths clear of 3rd. Perhaps a little vulnerable to bounce, but should be included for exotics.
Race 4 – 2:15pm (PST) 3yr olds and up Mcl 5000 1 Mile All-Weather (Selections: 2-1)
Top Choice: (2) Muskoka is one I’ll go along with reluctantly after failing last week at even money. Even then he takes another step down and stretches out to a better distance today. It’s now or never this go around.
Backup: (1) Dare to Believe at age 7 is still a maiden, but has shown the ability to close out exotics. He’s seemingly a ‘pack animal’ and should be right there especially at this trip which he’s placed 2nd his last three tries.
Race 5 – 2:45pm (PST) 3yr olds and up Clm 8000 n2x 1 Mile All-Weather (Selections: 3-4)
Top Choice: (3) Arch Anthem has a distinct advantage of recent fitness having run on May 16th. He cuts back in trip and also switches back to the tapeta where he has a better record. The drop down from $20k may not be as big as it seems as the winner Toro de Oro was previously an $8k claimer. Still he fits here at a price and has the fitness edge.
Backup: (4) Shifty Dancer has been going well for Jonathan Wong. He had his streak of 6 straight exacta placings snapped last out when tiring late to finish 3rd. The freshening may have done him well and he seems poised to strike if the top choice doesn’t take advantage of his edge.
Race 6 – 3:15pm (PST) 3yr olds and up F&M Clm 16000 n2x 1 Mile Turf (Selections: 4-3)
Top Choice: (4) Lady Phyllis seemed to have this race written for her (having won twice at the 12500n2x level). They don’t write too many of these 16000 n2x races. Been working great and gets back to the surface of her last win. Live.
Backup: (3) Hardsense has been waiting to get back to turf after a successful 3yr old campaign on the surface. She is versatile and should be in shape given all of the long workouts in May. Live at a decent price.
Race 7 – 3:45pm (PST) 3yr old fillies Oclm 50000 n1x 6 Furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 4-2)
Top Choice: (4) Pearl Dragon looks like the speed of this bunch having chased Bulletproof One around the track last out. She beat Draw Me two races back and that one returned to flatter he by clearing the Str 50000 level as well. Fits at a fair price.
Backup: (2) Warm Summer has been steadily improving with each start of her 3 year old campaign. She also draws the attention of Antongeorgi. Note she was only a head and a nose behind the top choice in her last two and would not be a surprise to win it all.
Race 8 – 4:15pm (PST) 3yr olds and up F&M Camilla Urso Stakes $75k 5 Furlongs Turf (Selections: )
Top Choice: (3) Ima Happy Cat seems to have regained her confidence the last two races and she has some killer speed when she wants to use it (see last year’s Camilla Urso 20.8 opening qtr). Draws inside of Red Livy her main early threat and love her to win it all at a great price.
Backup: (6) Fantasy Heat comes in from S. California with a solid ¾ record at this trip and surface. Those were all as a 3 year old and she should be a bigger faster girl at age 4. Should find a decent spot behind the speed and not too wide. Good chance in a wide open race.
Race 9 – 4:45pm (PST) 3yr olds and up F&M Clm 12500 n2L 5-1/2 Furlongs All-Weather (Selections: )
Top Choice: (2) Bounty of Gold makes sense in this spot after dropping to this level last out, surging to the lead at the 1/8th pole and tiring late. She should really appreciate the cut back to 5-1/2. Note winner and 3rd place both returned to win next out.
Backup: (5) Red Dahlia is a 3 year old filly and drops into a more reasonable spot after facing some of the toughest fillies on the grounds. Draws Hernandez this go around and he’ll place her just right. Live.