Warren Wilson
Twitter: @HorseAnalystWW
Top Choice Season Statistics:
120 selections – 38 wins (31.67%) $2.00 Win bet ROI $2.67 (+33.5%)
Race 1 – 12:45pm (PST) 3 yr olds and up F&M Clm 5000n2x 1 Mile All-Weather (Selections: 4-5)
Top Choice: (4) La Guapa Velos is going really well now and here slightly off the pace running style will come in handy here where there are a lot of front runners signed on. I know Hernandez bails for the back up choice, but feel this one might have the edge. Price will surely be right.
Backup: (5) Norwegian will draw much more attention at the windows and deservedly so. She also is in great form. She has a similar slightly off the pace running style that will fit this heat well. Expect a good showing, but price will be too short for us.
Race 2 – 1:15pm (PST) 3 yr olds and up Clm 6250 n2L 5-1/2 Furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 2-6)
Top Choice: (2) Aidan’s Harbor halves his claiming tag after several placings at the $12500 level. His figures and running style line up well in this spot and he should get that elusive second win today.
Backup: (6) Winter Fog looks like the controlling speed here and also draws outside. Everything pacewise should be made to order for him, just think he won’t have enough punch in the lane to stay in front of our top choice.
Race 3 – 1:45pm (PST) 2 yr olds fillies MdnSpWt 4-1/2 Furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 6-4)
Top Choice: (6) Proof of Jazz has a win early pedigree out of Idiot Proof who is striking 15% with his first time starters. Ellen Jackson is 4/10 (40%) with 2yr old first time starters in the month of May (she won with Bulletproof One last year 5/11/2019). Draws a favorable post for a youngster and has been outworking her stablemate just to the inside. Live.
Backup: (4) I’m So Anna will be the favorite here and also boasts a win early pedigree. Sire Fast Anna also hitting at 15% with first time starters. Several bullet workouts on the tab, should be in the picture at first asking.
Race 4 – 2:15pm (PST) 3 yr olds and up Clm 6250 1-1/16 Miles Turf (Selections: 8-3)
Top Choice: (8) Play Hard to Get is back to his favorite surface and adds a drop in class. He has not won in a long time (2018). Draws Antongeorgi. Should get the job done today.
Backup: (3) Lifeline also drops to lowest tag of his career after running fair on the S. Cal turf circuit. Hernandez lands here after having Taelyns Prince as an option. Should be there at the end.
Race 5 – 2:45pm (PST) 3 yr olds and up Clm 3200 n2x 1 Mile All-Weather (Selections: 6-1)
Top Choice: (6) Cats Out Tonight has been showing steady improvement as of late and has filled out a couple superfecta tickets at long odds. Drops back to $3200 here and fits as good as any. Note he was only 1-1/4 behind the back up choice two back while showing a solid closing number. Boxcar bomb of the day.
Backup: (1) Mr. Papas merits respect here as he draws inside and likes this distance and trip. His last out number puts him in the winner circle. Versatile style to lead or sit off will come in handy. Live.
Race 6 – 3:15pm (PST) 3 yr olds fillies MdnSpWt 1 Mile All-Weather (Selections: 4-5)
Top Choice: (4) Olive You More comes back quickly after racing on turf last week. Filly should have a conditioning edge here. She proved she likes the tapeta with the Dec 12th effort last year. Couton sticks and so do we. Live.
Backup: (5) Overwhelming Love debuts for Tommy Town/Wong outfit and has been working very well for this. Strong AUS female family and Amador takes the mount after not riding last week. Expect talent from this one.
Race 7 – 3:45pm (PST) 3yr olds and up F&M Alw 31000 n1x 1-1/16 Miles Turf (Selections: 4-5)
Top Choice: (4) Sloane Garden should find a nice box seat behind the speed here and showed ability on turf in Europe. Note that Badilla and the Charles/Gordon team also have Golden Iris who likely will be sent to set the table for this one. Live.
Backup: (5) Noble Contessa is a different horse when up front on the engine. If by chance Golden Iris scratches, ‘tessa should be considered highly. Pedigree says turf and distance. Live with the right set up.
Race 8 – 4:15pm (PST) 3 yr olds and up Clm 12500 n2x 5-1/2 Furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 8-1)
Top Choice: (8) A Salute to Lt Dan draws outside after drawing the rail the past two trips. He should be able to stalk what figures to be a contentious pace and price should be right. Strong workouts in May in prep for this. Big chance
Backup: (1) Grand Air hopped at the start last time at 6-5 and still managed to rally strongly to get 3rd. Gonzalez climbs aboard and he is a more than adequate gate rider. Expect a better break and nice box seat behind speed. Big chance to turn the tables this time around.
Race 9 – 4:45pm (PST) 3 yr old fillies Str 50000s 1 Mile Turf (Selections: )
Top Choice: (8) Mylittlerunaway just broker her maiden, but finds a softer spot here against winners having qualified for the starter $50000 based on her first start for $25000. Has a good turf pedigree and Don’t Unzip Me flattered her by winning a MSW on the turf last weekend. Good chance to repeat here.
Backup: (9) Anna Lee Encore has a couple exacta placings over this turf course and draws Antongeorgi. Drops in class after facing tough first level allowance types for her last three. Good chance at good odds.