Twitter: @HorseAnalystWW
Top Choice Season Statistics :
45 selections – 12 wins (26.67%) $2.00 Win bet ROI $2.13 (+$0.13)
Best Bet: Mommy Rose in race 5.
Race 1 – 12:45pm (PST) 4yr old & up Clm 5000b 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 2-1)
General Comments: Lots of speed signed on here, will set up well for a closing/stalking type.
Top Choice: (2) Aotearoa was flying last out at 4-5 odds, but the pace disappeared in that race when one of the expected speeds reared in the gates. He’ll have way more speed to chase today and the price should be more appetizing. Desormeaux now riding in Northern CA, takes the mount. Dangerous.
Backup: (1) Easy Game drops significantly after a decent 3rd place effort at the $12500 level. The voided claim two back followed by the layoff are a bit concerning, but Trujillo does well with old claimers and my feeling is he enough in the tank to be in the picture at the end.
Race 2 – 1:15pm (PST) 3yr olds Str50000 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 4-1)
General Comments: Tribal Impact looks vulnerable here. Distance is probably not his best and he was a vet scratch on the 17th of January when entered for $12500. We’ll look elsewhere.
Top Choice: (4) Megameister really woke up when allowed to walk early and then raced off in the stretch. Breeding suggested the longer distance would help. Desormeaux on board this time. Dirt Red Road (2nd) came back to win and Bottle of Smoke (5th) ran second in the same race. Very live.
Backup: (1) Kona Sky ran a fantastic race last out which crowned him with the best route number of this group. Likely to get the lead again and will take them as far as he can. Sweet Boy (2nd) confirmed with a next out win for $12500. Live.
Race 3 – 1:45pm (PST) 3yr olds Clm 12500 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 8-5)
General Comments: Ardenlee Star looks vulnerable to us here. Drops to $12500 after being a voided claim at the $50000 level. Shows back up on the synthetic after an awful performance last September. We’ll look to been him.
Top Choice: (8) Tiz Emma ran a real ripper last out closing well in a race that will get some more validation if Kona Sky wins race 2. Speed figures fit and it’s hard to get better breeding for this synthetic than Slew’s Tiznow to a Tribal Rule mare. Strong change.
Backup: (5) Deepingreen ran a nice even effort last time at this level and trip. Alvarado is very familiar as this will be his 9th ride on this guy. Solid for all placings.
Race 4 – 2:15pm (PST) 3yr old fillies AOC 40000 1 mile All-Weather (Selections:5-1)
General Comments: Strong heat of first level allowance 3 year old fillies. This looks like a future key race as it’s loaded with talent.
Top Choice: (5) Augure looked really good in the stretch running down the tough Mylittlerunaway after a rough first turn. Very strong closing kick in her first start on the synthetic. Hernandez sticks with her and so do we.
Backup: (1) Tiz Fake News is bred to want more ground and she’ll get it here after a very impressive maiden score. Sharp works in prep say all systems are go. Will need to rate her speed to be effective here. Still could take them all the way.
Race 5 – 2:45pm (PST) 4yr old & up F&M Clm 20000 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections:6-4)
General Comments: This race is loaded to the gills with speed. Can’t see anyone who wants to be up front surviving here. Looking to the closers.
Top Choice: (6) Mommy Rose showed an incredible turn of foot last out when falling 10 lengths behind through a 23+ second first quarter mile, she made up over 7 lengths on the turn and then finished them off in the stretch. Think about this, she finished the final half mile in 46 seconds flat, very impressive. She’s going good again and won 5 races in 2019. Will get a ‘made to order’ race set up. Strong chance.
Backup: (4) Crown Kitten will also benefit from the race shape here. She has made a decent living sprinting on the tapeta and should pick up the pieces late. If Mommy Rose fails, this one will be the first up beneficiary.
Race 6 – 3:15pm (PST) 4yr old & up F&M Alw33000nc 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 1-5)
General Comments: This race is interesting in the fact that on Jan 12th, three of these (Ima Happy Cat, Vronilla Parfait and Mother of Dragons) faced off. Ima Happy Cat and Mother of Dragons dueled hard setting up Vronilla Parfait and eventual winner Coco Bee. Mother of Dragons now switches jockeys to Couten, who rode her off the pace each time he rode her in the past. I anticipate a different race set up based on this.
Top Choice: (1) Ima Happy Cat should be able to dictate terms this time around similar to her Bear Fan stakes effort two back. She is very tough on a loose lead. She was the beaten favorite last time in this exact conditions. Price will be better as well as race shape. Looks good to us.
Backup: (5) Vronilla Parfait always seems to fire. Sporting an 18/23 placing record on this tapeta surface. She always has to be included in exacta and trifecta considerations. Will be there at the finish.
Race 7 – 3:45pm (PST) 3yr old fillies MdnSpWt 6 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 7-5)
General Comments: Tommy Town Thoroughbreds has two in this heat (Moon Over Mag By and Zakar). Several first time starters with sharp works, but not much in the way of the pedigree we’d expect to see at this level.
Top Choice: (7) Zakar makes the money run (second lifetime start) this go around after an encouraging second place effort to stablemate Tiz Fake News (pay attention to how she runs in race 4). Seems was the favorite last time out and retains Antongeorgi. Couple of 5 furlong gate drills in tow. The $175k yearling purchase should graduate here.
Backup: (5) Mime is from a nice family and should improve second up after also chasing Zakar home last out. That was a sharp 5 furlong drill on Feb 1st. Could upset the top choice with a move forward.
Race 8 – 4:15pm (PST) 4yr old & up F&M Alw 31000n1x 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 6-1)
General Comments: Good mix of salty veterans and some younger upstarts in this heat.
Top Choice: (6) Cozze Kid is 2 for 2 when sprinting fresh on the tapeta. She has not missed a beat in the mornings in preparation since mid-December. Jamey Thomas has historically fired at a 17.9% clip when horses resuming off 180+ day layoffs. Cozze’s numbers as an early 3 year old would be competitive here and now she has matured further. Big shot fresh off the bench.
Backup: (1) The Fun Begins finds another spot where she can cruise up front. Nearly cleared this condition last out save the amazing rail run by Gotham Desire. Everything should set up for her again, though she draws the rail after starting on the outside last out.
Race 9 – 4:45pm (PST) 4yr old & up Clm 25000 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 9-3)
General Comments: These are the best types of betting races in my opinion. Tough big fields of mid to upper level claimers. You can always find some value in these races. Sigur Ros comes crashing down after facing GG top level competition.
Top Choice: (9) Bear Chum draws the perfect post to stalk the blazing speed of Awesome Heights and Sigur Ros. He should be the first to pounce. Last out he broke last and then rushed up to grab the lead. Now that he draws outside, the he won’t have that pressure and will likely break much better. Argosy Fleet (5th) returned to win out of that race flattering him further. Herbertson can nearly do no wrong this meet hitting at 36%.
Backup: (3) Tivan former Golden Nugget winner here seems well placed here after splitting Awesome Silver and Awesome Heights last out. I keep warning you that Pablo De Jesus is going to score at big odds at some point in this meet. He was fantastic at Emerald Downs and owner Tim Bankers has been willing to spend money in the claiming game this meet. Boxcar odds chance.
Race 10 – 5:15pm (PST) 4yr old & up Clm 8000 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 5-8)
General Comments: Another juicy older horse claimer to close out the card.
Top Choice: (5) Monsajem Pervade has been right in the picture the last three when going this trip on the tapeta. Pace looks above average here so he should get a good set up and Couten, who won on him last November, returns. Price should be right. Major player.
Backup: (8) Crazy Prophet was claimed back by Blaine Wright (Blaine used to have him back in early 2019) and even after the subpar effort last out, he stays at this level, so like the confidence. Stable has had time to work on him after showing three steady works. Just missed two back when beaten by Run Like Rhett. Upset Chance.