GGF Saturday 2/29 – thedailygallop@gmail.com – Gmail
| Top Choice Season Statistics: 64 selections – 20 wins (31.25%) $2.00 Win bet ROI $2.38 (+19%) Best Bet: Chirp in race 3. Race 1 – 12:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up F&M StrAlw 4000 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 5-3) General Comments: Two ‘need the lead’ types enter this event, Cedars of Lebanon and Brite Echo, which should ensure a fast pace to run into. Should one of these scratch, the race shape changes entirely. Quinn Howey enters a pair here, Propeppy and Joyous. Top Choice: (5) Joyous won powerfully last out at this trip and should get an ideal setup from the outside off the pace. She ran a big number last out and that number has seemingly held up with runners exiting that race. Fairly Lucky who finished a distant (6th) came back to nearly win a $10000 event at SA on 2/8. Couple of tune-ups in the AM should have her fresh and ready. Backup: (3) Cedars of Lebanon will have heavy pressure from Brite Echo just outside of her, but that last race was also loaded with speed and she went gate to wire, albeit she had the outside post that day. Still she is the best of the speed. Hammy Time (4th) in that event returned to win a $3200 event. Race 2 – 1:15pm (PST) 3yr olds Clm 12500 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 3-5) General Comments: Four of the six entrants in this event all broke their maidens in wire-to-wire fashion. Race shape should set up well for one off the pace. Top Choice: (3) Vastly Deep drops into a rather soft spot after showing spirit at the Str50000 level. He should find a nice stalking position off the speed and actually has enough pace to be on the lead if no one goes. Love the versatility. His only two races where he was further than 2 lengths behind at the finish were at a mile and 6-1/2 furlongs. Should win at a short price. Backup: (5) Little John had no hope last time when they walked through a half mile in 46.6. That was also first level allowance types and the group he faces today is much easier. Pace should be there for him to make his move and he just might blow past the top choice if the setup is right. Race 3 – 1:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up F&M Clm 12500n2L 6 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 5-4 )General Comments: Three of the five here faced each other last out with Unchaining Melody edging Miss Lucky Lager and Biancas Mandate another two lengths behind. Top Choice: (5) Chirp handled the tapeta first up in her last race. That was some kick at the finish, when they walked the half in 47.6 and she still managed to get up and win going away. Hernandez sees fit to re-ride and she draws the outside which opens all options for positioning in this short field. Nice 4 furlong drill in prep. Strong chance. Backup: (4) Miss Lucky Lager broke a bit slow and then rushed to a clear lead when down on the rail last out. The outside draw should help, but she has been a slow breaking type horse pretty much her whole career. The lead is there for the taking in this race and should she be more alert out of the gate she stands a good chance of stealing this race on the front end. Race 4 – 2:15pm (PST) 4 yr old and up Clm 8000 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 2-1) General Comments: Tamayo and Wong both hold a pair in this short field of six. Race pace is not clear cut so could be anyone’s race. Top Choice: (2) Sunny Spot has great tactical speed and will find a favorable scenario either on the lead or stalking right with the leaders. The two month freshening with steady fast 5 furlong drills in preparation should set him up for a strong showing here. Backup: (1) Run Like Rhett won at this level three races back. The last effort had him coming home in 24 seconds flat when there was no pace to help him up front. He figures to save ground throughout and should kick home strongly again. Race 5 – 2:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up Clm 4000b 6 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 2-4) General Comments: Bottom level conditioned claimers featuring a strong early pace with Melchoir, Tomasino and Prince Cheval. Race looks to set up for a stalker/closer type. Very wide open event. None of these has very good form. Top Choice: (2) Mr. Diplomat has been 2nd three of his last four when facing open company or StrAlw types. Stalking style should be right for this race shape. Owned and trained by Rondan. Stands as good a chance as any in this wide open event. Backup: (4) Three Red Sevens lit the show money up last out when 72-1. One may laugh at the Grants Pass, OR and Great Falls, MT form, but trust me it was not easy to close ground on those bull rings and this guy did. He has a solid historic record here at GG sporting 7 placings from 11 starts. Could shock here. Race 6 – 3:15pm (PST) 3yr old fillies Mcl 12500 6 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 5-8) General Comments: Two first time starters in this nice field of eight. (6) You’re Not Funny by $50000 stallion Distorted Humor out of a NM stakes winning mare, has good breeding for the Tommy Town Thoroughbreds outfit, but one must wonder why she isn’t entered in a MdnSpWt race, but rather debuts here. (4) Musical Chatter was a vet’s scratch in a Mcl $8000 event back last October. We’ll steer clear of both. Top Choice: (5) Way to Fire had a very impressive debut run for owner/breeder Dahlberg Farms. This horse passed through the Barrett’s 2018 October sale as an RNA at $1000, so the fact she remains at the $12500 level after the impressive debut is not a concern to me. Owner/breeder likely want to get the win and sell her if possible. Big chance here. Backup: (8) Gray Lives Matter is racking up a reputation as a pack animal, sporting 5 placings from 6 starts. She now changes hands for the second time and the blinkers go off in hopes to fix her into a winner. Like the switch to the Wright barn and the outside post draw. Might find the right way to the winner’s circle today. Race 7 – 3:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up F&M StrAlw 12500 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 4-3) General Comments: Seems like a two horse race here between the two heavy hitters Fabriana and Music Babe. Both love to win and both have been facing tougher. Top Choice: (4) Music Babe is an amazing 12 for 30 winner lifetime and she has been freshened and prepared for this spot. She has the powerful closing kick needed to win these GG tapeta route races. Backup: (3) Fabriana cuts back from 1-1/8 mile race and also finds a softer spot. She beat Music Babe one out of three tries when on the turf last Sept 21st. Will be there in what should be a slugfest down the stretch. Race 8 – 4:15pm (PST) 4yr old and up Clm 25000 6 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 2-4) General Comments: Not often you see a 10 year old pass hands several times at the $20-25k price range but the venerable Awesome Silver has done just that. He’s in great form at the moment and sports some giant speed figures as of late. We’re going to take a stand against him at the short price. Top Choice: (2) Clem Labine goes first off the claim for De Jesus/Bankers and could not believe that come home time of 22 and change last out when fanned four wide at the top of the stretch. This guy seems to be best on this tapeta surface and I think he could surprise here at a nice price. Backup: (4) Midnight Destiny gets a significant jockey change and should find a better trip here. He sports a fantastic record over this surface and price should be right to take a chance. Race 9 – 4:45pm (PST) 3yr old fillies MdnSpWt 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 2-8) General Comments: Four first time starters here in this MdnSpWt dash. Top Choice: (2) Sweet Regards draws Hernandez after preparing down at SA in the Kristin Mulhall barn. She has been historically very good at GG sporting a 14/70 (20%) strike rate and an amazing 6/10 (60%) with MdnSpWt types. Tapeta surface makes sense for this one. Sire Street Life is 0 for 17 with first time starters, but this looks like the one to break the trend. Backup: (8) Beautiful Babe will be the first runner out of an excellent female family. This one went for $1400 at the Barretts October 2018 sale, yet DeLima opts to start her at this level. Nice worktab in tow and think she could light up the minors at a big price. |