Just to sound off and it makes it bittersweet for me, my father’s girlfriend Alda succumbed to cancer this week. She was a bartender at an OTB/hotel that my father worked at, and for those who know me my dad got me into this game. She was also a horseplayer. Every year at Saratoga, she used only to play the 4 horse. So I found it ironic the top pick in race 1 is the number 4.
In her memory, I would like to dedicate this write-up to her, and I know with her looking down on the racetrack that four has got one hell of a shot.
Race 1
4-6-9-8
#4 Lil Kylie: Second choice on the morning line. She is dropping out of a MSW off the turf event where she ran off the board and now faces statebreds why is this crucial her two races against statebreds are the best shes run in her career including two back she ran a mid 40 Beyer. Her last race the winner came back to run second in an allowance and won the maiden race with a 44 Beyer the Par for this class level is 41. One negative which I hope helps the price is the jockey is 0-13 to start the meet, and the trainer wins under 10% for the year. Although she is a good layoff trainer.
#6 Arch’s Li’l Nieta: The morning line favorite. One race at this level ran a good second with a troubled trip as she was wide and bothered at the start usually horses can improve 10 or so points, so that puts her right in the mix with our top pick. The pace should be ok if she continues to come from the back of the pack. Some negatives the trainer is not that good at layoffs and her debut the winner didn’t crack a 40 Beyer so her last race may have been on the weaker side for the level.
#9 Charlotte’s Wish: One of the two speeds on the outside. She is coming back from Canterbury where she was running for 5k while most people think this will be a jump I feel its about even as the winner ran a 45 Beyer. She has two races over the track from last year, and she ran a high 30 which fits with this group as well. One negative is she is 4-6 ITM so far so maybe a bit shy of the winners circle a definite use underneath.
Race 2
2-1-4
#2 Tube Sox Rock: This filly is lightly raced and taking the most significant class drop in racing. She showed improved speed on the surface switch to turf and now switched back to dirt. With the three improved works in the interim maybe she is one just improving with experience. Trainer Brett Calhoun does well with the class drop and surface switches.
#1 Senorita Tapit: Took a price for the second spot. She has the most experience not the best thing in maiden races. Off the layoff and class drop, she dropped the best last out, Beyer. Hopefully looking to hit the board at an excellent price to spice up the exotics
#4 Just Perfection: If the #2 turf speed doesn’t switch over this will be your pace runner. Pace and MSW dropping is a key for most runners that last race she comes out of was pretty good 4-6 with one next out winner.
Race 3
6-4-10
#6 Weavemeawinr: With a ton of speed signed on for the race I wanted some horses that have won from off the pace. This filly stalked the pace from mid-pack to win against 5K State Bred maidens and then found 20K statebreds a little too rough. She has improved her Beyer in every start, and another improvement would put her right in the thick of it. She won second off the debut, so I think second off a layoff might be her favorite spot and trainer Karl Broberg is excellent at 25%.
#4 Khaleesi’s Gift: The race two back of 67 seems very fluky as her best race before that was in the ’40s Beyer wise. She has hit the board in both starts against winners and maintained that low 40 Beyer. The negative is the price and the fact that the trainer doesn’t do too well with dirt sprinters both stats under 10% she also lost the last race at this level as the under 2-1 favorite.
#10 L L L College Fund: This filly has some questions to answer can she compete against winners and also can she run well with other pace horses to her inside. Trainer Courtney Dandridge isn’t the best small sample size of 9 with zero winners with next out winners. Hopefully, a decent play underneath as this one loves to hit the board 7 out of her first nine races.
Race 4
pass
Race 5
4-3-7
#4 Where Y’at Joe Joe: I feel this is more a speed figure play than anything if he runs anything in his last 5 races he should win this pretty handily.
11-18 ITM at the distance is another nice positive
#3 Farewell Time: 2 wins in a row not many in this race can claim. Won huge when coming off a layoff two back 7% off long layoffs for Howard Alonzo is hard to stomach but the price should be right.
Race 6
pass
Race 7
5-6-4
#5 Little Gemma: Sire Gemologist does pretty well stretching out young horses to routes at 16%. I like that this horses running style is more stalking and she had some slow fractions which made it hard for her to catch up in her last race although the nice Beyer improvement and there are only 2 horses over 370 Tomlinson for the distance.
#6 In Charge Annie: She has the right running style and also seems to be a low 50 on the Beyer scale. The 2nd-time route is usually an improvement angle. The jockey jumps back aboard since there the third place in her debut.
Race 8
pass
race 9
pass
race 10
pass