Fairgrounds Racing Analysis- Thursday Nov 15, 2018- By Spencer Luginbuhl

you can also find him on twitter @handi_capper

 

Race 1
5-3-6-7

#5 Beto: 2 very impressive races back to back at Remington Park. Some things I like about this 2-year-old he is improving his turn time from 23.26 to 23.07 he has a win at the distance and multiple good races at said distance. he also broke the maiden against open company and now faces state breds. Some things to worry about two back to back Beyer tops and maybe he just Likes Remington. His maiden breaker came back very weak so far 5 runners none have hit the board. There is also a ton of speed in this race so he will probably have to rate to win.

#3 Buckets: One start one win for this son of Yes It’s True. He went off the favorite for a good 2-year-old trainer and won in hand by over 4 lengths he needs to show he can stretch out a bit and also race over a fast dirt surface. Good News is Colby Hernandez retains the mount. and he is also going from open to state breds but will be interesting for me as class is big for me as a handicapper to see what open company horses do well and what ones do badly when shipping into the Fairground.

#6 Ricky Dale: With all the pace signed up this is setting up for a closer. Now in his last race, the leader ran off and he was 6 behind after a quarter mile. He is one that will improve with distance and the long stretch at FG will help his late kick.

Race 2
4-3-1-9

#4 Lethal Move: Of his two races the route was the better one, he is a stone cold deep closer and he has never raced at 3 so there is upside the downside is after all this time and a barn change he is in for a tag today.

#3 Wristlet: did lose as the favorite at this level on a sloppy track last out does have a nice race at 7 furlongs against weaker although this is the lowest an open company maiden can go at fairgrounds. that’s the only race in the entire field that comes close to the Beyer Par of 60 with a 56.
The trainer change is also positive going from a no-win barn to an average barn of Alfonso Banderas.

#1 Latrobe’s King: Another dropping from MSW to MC only three starts to date and only one on dirt inside post blinks and stretching out would tell me he’s going for the lead which is usually all you need at these levels 8-5 is really hard for me to swallow the 45 Beyer in the lone dirt try doesn’t get it done today.

Race 3
9-6-8-10

#9 Divas Ransom: so I quite like these two condition races it allows horses who haven’t won 4 races in there lifetime to come up against horses who haven’t won twice in six months. To me, this favors the latter because they have just won more case and point with my top pick just last year she is coming out of an allowance race and found this condition in her first start of the meet and won going wire to wire. She won with a 55 Beyer and she just ran a 52 in her last start good value at 5-1

#6 Tessa’s Treat: Two back she wins her NW3L condition very good Beyer of 57 and she faces just a monster next out who has since won 2 allowance races and 2 other came back to hit the board. She took a nice vacation or maybe something went wrong in that last race the race two back fits here and she only has 3 starts under the timing condition compared to others with many more starts 5-11 in the exacta at the distance isn’t bad either.

#8 Lu Sea: nothing much to say she has won a 20K claimer this year and has been facing much tougher big drop today makes her a player her last race was to the Beyer par of 58

Race 4
2-4-10

#2 Havinfunyet: At the last meet last year all this Daughter of Paddy O’Prado did was smash this class level 4 straight times. she has the best-come home times of late at sub 24 quarters she is a HFC with 4 wins in 7 tries over the FG turf course one negative is she doesn’t like to lose when a very big favorite but I think nothing will challenge her late.

#4 Kentucky Brown: New trainer for this filly who is definitely a speedball and now stretches out for this she usually runs numbers in the low 70’s which is not good enough to beat the favorite but should be good to hit the board in what I feel is a very formful race

#10 Sage’s Epiphany: Big class dropper she has improved her Beyer 4 straight races the last win came for 10K but was running well against allowance foes. Don’t know how good the post is but in theory, she will lose ground our top pick will save ground which makes this one an underneath play.

race 5
4-8-7-3

#4 Santa Americana: 2-3 on a fast dirt track he was winning 15K off the turf races at Hawthorne earlier in the year. He’s never raced lower than a mid 60 Beyer and the only horse that does that is the favorite who loves to run second gonna take a shot here on a horse that should be double the price.

#8 Cookies Are Good: This son of Into Mischief just ran two wonderful route races with high and mid 60 Beyers the reason I’m going against is he just ran for 10k solid third and now drops to 5k he also goes open company to restricted so its an even bigger drop maybe they are just being a shrewd claiming barn and found a good spot for an easy win but he for sure is going to be claimed today and he also loves to run second.

#7 WhoaJoey: He has done ok at this level raced a few times and hot the board a couple of times I’m hoping he needed that last one off the layoff and with a return to this company can make a decent run.

Race 6
5-2-9
Race 7
pass
Race 8
Pass
Race 9
pass

YTD 2 MEETS
WAGERED 248
TOP PICK % 28-126=22%
W/L -(51.70) R.O.I. -(20.85%)

SARATOGA 2018 SUMMER MEET RESULTS
TOP PICKS WAGERED BASED ON 2$ WIN BETS
WAGERED 106
TOP PICK %= 10-55 18%
W/L=(-39.10) R.O.I. -37

BELMONT 2018 SPRING MEET RESULTS
TOP PICKS WAGERED BASED ON 2$ WIN BETS
WAGERED 142
TOP PICK %=18-71=25%
W/L=-(12.60) R.O.I -9%

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