Fair Grounds – Sunday, December 9, 2018
Thinking the weather through Saturday impacts Sunday’s card in a big way. Hoping the 3 grass races don’t scratch down too much.
Race 1: 2 – 4 – 1
A short field of 6 statebred, maiden-special 2 yr. olds start the day. A first time starter, Say Yes Again and a second-time starter, Lagniappe, both hail from the Al Stall barn. Either could do it – but based on perceived odds differential – the value should be the firster – Say Yes Again. Consistent works for debut. Lagniappe best last out of those that have raced, will be favored. Rule Taylor Rule will try to ‘pop’ this one from the rail, needs clean break.
Race 2: 5 – 6 – 4
In a field where 5 of the 7 entered are coming out of the same race – we’ll try not to overthink it. The top two finishing returners should be there again, but we’ll reverse it this time, hoping for the better price. Weavemeawinner really moved early in last after a tardy break, better break, gets the jump on Hannah Banana who should improve off last for 2 reasons: second off layoff, and Sutherland shouldn’t move prematurely – 2nd again. Red La Rosa returns off the layoff has races over the track that would win this, coming off layoff for smaller barn a concern.
Race 3: 8 – 2 – 6
With the likelihood of a wet track, let’s go with Trust in Diane, who has a win over a wet Fair Grounds track. Drops to winning level. Cats Beauty sneaks in on a 3 race win streak (2 of which under the claiming condition) – will be tough as always. Hopette’s best figure would take this, doesn’t need best figure to be on the board.
Race 4: 4 – 2 – 1
Assuming race will come off the turf, Samba Breeze rushed up into pace in debut, better break today, bred top and bottom for a wet track. Trainer/Jockey combo formidable. Gets first jump on Awesome Figure who may have the speed to clear, shortens up a bit in distance, assuming most talented firsters scratch out (i.e. Good Business). Blessed Union looks to close, gets a piece.
Race 5: 8 – 3 – 1
Squatchingwithlyss certainly figures on form, stretches out, Graham sticks. Sits the outside trip. Calaveras banking on a complete form reversal based on connections, the drop, and being bred for a wet track. Comes back relatively quick off the ‘stop’ – has a maintenance work between. Senorita Tapit likes pieces, gets another.
Race 6: 4 – 1 – 5
Race is also destined to be rained off the grass, Katiebmeister looks to improve in second off layoff. Looks to be the speed, and may take them all the way. Toodaloo to You comes off best race, shouldn’t be compromised by track condition. Patiently sits the trip, can win this. Vanishing Image hard to look past off track success.
Race 7: 5 – 3 – 1
Curious if the expected off /drying out track scares the well bred fillies Devilite and Alfresco away….assuming it does think Haynesfest stands to gain the most. Likes the track, likes it off, sits, wins. Faith Healer makes her work for it. Upset Brewing can’t deny that consistency, gets her piece.
Race 8: 2 – 7 – 3
Another that is likely rained off the grass, Seeking a Star improved significantly on an off track, top barn, jockey sticks and times move to lead just right. Farmavet bred for an off track top and bottom, consistent work pattern for top barn. Holly Molly Dolly, another from a winning barn, debuted with Seeking a Star, should improve. Real competitive race, scratches tough to predict.
Race 9: 5 – 2 – 11Swamp Ruler gets back to FG, reunites with Gilligan (lots of success there) drops for good percentage barn. Cordero was finishing in last, takes slight drop in second off the layoff. Sammy Wonder Stone should improve off last, sits the outside trip for a piece.