Fair Grounds Racing Analysis- Friday, December 14, 2018- By Tim Dougherty

Tim is our new sub for Kentucky but gladly is helping us out this week with Fairgrounds

his twitter is @tim_D88

We’re handicapping for off the turf with the rain they took Thursday.

R1- 10 – The consistent Iowa bred About Our Time boasts a solid 28-8-5-3 lifetime record and projects to sit a nice tracking trip under Lanerie off the second choice the  MTO 11- Paddy’s Notes. ‘Paddy get’s post relief off the rail for connections of Beschizza and Sharp. She projects to be on our near the lead second off the claim. No shame in losing to Blue Wings last time. Should be right there. 7- Cho Mono comes out of a descent open 5,000 claimer at CD and fits underneath.

R2- 4- We’ll hope to kick off the card with a Lanerie early double with 4- Maddy’s Pro as the top pick in this conditioned $15K claimer. Should produce one of those better speed figs from the summer off the freshening. Forward work tab seemingly suggests she will. Lanerie should place this gelding mid-flight and give him every chance turning home. 7- Satellite goes first off the claim for potent connections of Amoss, Moss, and Grahm. Catches a weight break in for the 10K today, but this class hike from $5K now in against mostly $15K claimers makes us weary of swallowing too short a price here. 6- Lead Astray caught trouble on the far turn last time at CD and fits here on his best day. 1- Call the Colonel is searching for his first win since 2016, but is worth using underneath. Should be coming late and would benefit if a hot pace develops.

R3- 7- Cimarron goes as a co best bet on the day and should improve second start out. Away slow and wide on debut give this handicapper reasons to project a much improved race today for Kennedy and Catalano. 2- Twins Plus a Dot split a field of twelve Mdn $30K claimers last out at CD, probably outran those 74-1 odds that day. Should be much closer early with that race underneath her belt. 3- Gator Vindication is the speed, but she coughed up a clear lead mid-stretch last out, and you’d have to think going 6f again today with this long FG stretch she’ll be getting weary late. She’ll give you a run for your money on the engine today.

R4 – 15- Nate’s Attack is the top pick in a race projected to come off the turf. Drops in class from protected company to $15K today off a descent effort versus ALW N2L company at DeD last out. Consistent sort should be there near the end. 16-Dahik is a logical contender off that MDN Claiming $15K score at CD last out. If this guy gets in look to see who Murrill rides between this guy and the rail, fade the mount he hops off. Sharp likes to leave ‘em in the race with some of these off the turfers with iffy dirt form like 8- Go for Moonshine has, but the few dirt figs are relatively competitive and a ‘forwardish’ trip could put this guy in the mix. If on the dirt as very likely expected, keep in mind it’s a short stretch to that first wire finish and forward types do well in those races.

R5- 2- Altered Dream second last out behind an open winner at this level. Should move forward second start of the meet and second start off the layoff. 4- Ruthless Child drops to her lowest level of her career. That slopy two back figure at Kee wins this race. She’s 0-13, but none of those races have come against this cheap of company she faces today. Should be right there in a competitive race. 8 – Humorous Kitten will have to work out a trip from this 8 hole and hope not to get hung wide on the turn. If she does under Graham, she can be close. 1- Tart N Sassy turns back making ger FG debut. Should save ground and be running on late for Bauer and his main owner Rigney Racing.

R6- 6-Cheytac goes first off the claim for veteran trainer Angel Montano. Has two turn dirt speed figures in the PP’s that win this race. Hopefully Flo can place this still colt forward early. Pay attention if for some reason he doesn’t run well today, put him in your stable mail and if he comes back second time out for this new barn as a gelding back him again at the window. 12- Apollo’s Leap might go favored in a projected off the turf affair. Drops in for the tag and will face much easier today. 2- Antarctic goes first off the claim for Amoss, Moss, and Graham. Bullet drill with the blinks off signal this guy might be sitting on a big race.

R7- 4- John’s Luck is a tepid top pick in a wide open Louisiana Bred optional claiming allowance level. Has proven effective at this course, distance, and class as he won this race last year on 12/3/17 and should move forward second start of the meet (same scenario as last season’s win). We’ll take the 10-1 chance this guy improves to last year’s FG form. 7 Where Y’at Joe being posted outside should sit a better trip than he did last time facing many of the same foes he does today. Consistent sort is 8 for 10 in the tri in 2018 and 3 for 5 in the tri at FG. 9- State Treasurer is a bit of a pace dependent closer who will need a hot pace to develop to be a serious threat on the win end. Should be coming late down that long FG straight.

R8- 9 Chocolate Ride – Old class veteran for Brad Cox should be right there at the wire even if it gets moved to dirt as projected. He prefers the turf but can run on the dirt as well. 11- Chip Leader is hard to trust on the barn change and drop in class. Iffy works coming into this don’t help the cause he’s coming into this race as the same horse he was earlier in the year. If he’s anything close to his prior form he will jog to an easy victory here, but we’re cautions if actually we’ll see that same horse. 12- Got Gold comes in off a descent 3rd in allowance company last out. Might be a little cheap for these, but a repeat of last race’s speed figure puts him in the mix. Long on Luck is also an underneath consideration.

R9- 1- Southern Wind will go as a co best bet on the day. A winner last out against open $5K Louisiana bred company from the rail. She is eligible for this non winners of two races in the last six months’ time restricted claiming race that’s generally seen as a drop in class compared to open company, she should be double tough for a repeat. 3- Elektracutioner is a fast horse. Knock is he’s been absent from the races for nearly eight months. If he comes back with his usual speed and the stamina to keep on going late, he could go wire to wire off the layoff. 4- Electric Kiss got ran down by the top pick last time while 5 wide on the turn. This 10 time winning mare should get first run on the second pick and if she’s not too wide may kick on for home and take the nightcap.

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