Fair Grounds Racing Analysis- Sunday Dec 2, 2018- By Neil Petrocelli

Fair Grounds – Sunday, December 2, 2018

Hoping for good weather and staying on the grass – as per many race cards today, the grass races are the best races on the card.  Let’s hope we can keep the positive ROI going, and get a couple of chunky prices mixed in.

Race 1:  3 – 4 – 5

Starfish Point nice win last out, (light bulb?), nice work between starts over the  track – indicates maintaining form. A few good races over the track.   Memory Magic a reluctant pick off the drop (which isn’t as great as claiming price indicates in the NW2L condition).   Back with statebreds. Any Ole Thing consistent figures, completes the tri.

Race 2:  5 – 2 – 7

With many dropping from statebred stakes, going with the one on the upward trajectory.  B’s Ten wheels right back for a barn that can afford to skip one (always a good angle).  Must be feeling good, nice win over course two weeks ago. Wins right back.  Is Too – the Midshipman’s love the grass, goes to the front and leads as far as she can.  Reine des Amimaux has figures and many races that make her competitive.

Race 3:  3 – 5 – 6

With so many coming out of the same race, we’re going to mix up that finish going for a bit of price, Cherry Twist – assume she shakes free this time, and has enough to hold on.  Shorter distance will help.  Helen Wheels sits just a bit this time, will be tough.  Paper Doll last out second, finishing in front of the top two, makes her formidable.

Race 4:  7 – 5 – 6

Second out off a long layoff,  serious barn, gives the nod to Piocho.  Last is better than looks on paper, barn an undeniable force.  Non Regrette gets serious props for consistency, been right there several times, including a less than a length loss 5th at FG in this class. Fra Mauro completes the tri.   

Race 5:  2 – 4 – 6

Saint William drops off debut where he broke slow and middle moved then flattened out in stretch.  Drops, breaks better off nice work the other day, Murill stays, times move successfully.  I’ll Raise You wheels back quickly off debut, improves.  Striking Star, work pattern for debut could not be more consistent, completes the tri.  

 

Race 6:  7 – 8 – 9

In a race where those with form don’t look intimidating, we’ll go with 3 firsters.  Recent 3 furlong gate works will have Divine Sky breaking sharply, and going.  Takes them all the way. Gioblast – has the breeding, connections, rider, but a scary October yearling price – which may speak to starting in a claimer.  Brilliant Flair, comes in off back to back gate works – which should have her ready.  Good connections here as well.

Race 7:  3 – 7 – 8

They slipped in another NW3L on us….Speightstime, a win over the track under Gilligan (who rides today) two maintenance works over the track, wins.  Butta Got Uncs Bac definitely likes the track, reunites with Saez (lots of success there) – but may need one off the brief layoff.  Bar Ryder will be coming but may miss the ½ furlong from the last two.  

Race 8:  3 – 8 – 4

Nice field of two year old fillies – some with some obvious upside…Martian last out jumps off page – lightbulb?  Experience? Think the switch to turf is no problem.  Lanerie knows when to move on her. Sunset Wish goes for the Stidham/Bravo combo which always commands respect.    Casse sends out a pair Soul Planet looks tough off turf starts up north…handles two turns?

Race 9:  2 – 5 -1

Yet another NW3L,  let’s just go with Weidenbachers Gent is consistent – seems to try every time, Graham times finish right.  Mr. Nasty Time – purely based on connections and also has some form consistency.  Personal Conflict – may slip away to the lead from the rail, hangs on for a piece.

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