Back at it today after a close defeat against Dennis! Next up is Mike Farley (@mikefarley47 on Twitter). Best of luck to him as he tries to beat me for a chance at $25!!! Here are my selections for today at Fair Grounds!!!
Race 1
Top Selection: #3 Top Ten Duchess 2/1
Alternate Selection: #6 Ticketformichelle 4/1
My top selection has run back to back races that should’ve been enough to best those fields but was beaten as the 5/1 and 3/1 choice respectively. Gets a much softer field today in this spot and the 2up speed figure, combined with 2/2 hitting board at track and distance… should get a big performance again today.
Race 2
Top Selection: #8 Smittys Eyecandy 12/1
Alternate Selection: #5 Sunniva 6/5
Calhoun wanted to get this one on the grass for the first time last out off the layoff, got taken off that day but will get the grass for the first time today. I love the addition of blinkers for a couple reasons… 1, this one has just had issues getting out of the gate which could be for a multitude of reasons but one being that she just freaks out… 2, should show more speed which has been shown in the AM workouts. Gonna be tough to beat the big favorite in here but bred for the turf, dam has 5 winners from 7 starters and the addition of blinks will make me give the checkmark to this one at a nice price!
Race 3
Top Selection: #6 Starmaline 6/5
Alternate Selection: #1 Seattle Brew 9/2
As for the previous race where I tried beating the heavy favorite, I have to unfortunately take the heavy favorite in here. Debut was absolutely unbelievable for Gary Scherer in the slop going 1m over this course. Now, gets another pretty soft spot in here against runners who are really just trying to find themselves. With it being a state bred ALW, you will get a much softer group and if second out is anything like debut… this horse will stomp home with ease at 3/5… if not worse.
Race 4
Top Selection: #6 Belomor 20/1
Alternate Selection: #7 Heaven Is Waiting 9/5
Going for the KO punch early with this 20/1 shot who I think could be easily forgotten on the board today. I love the fact that this one is now 3rd off the layoff for Vashchenko who is 20%, combine that with the fact that Vashchenko has won 3 of his last 6 runners in the past 14 days and we might have something brewing here. We know what we will get from this runner and tactical speed, on top of that, look back to July of 2017 where this runner was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths in a Grade 3 at AP so you know class against a 30k field isn’t an issue. This horse has shown ability and maybe its his time to shine in a reasonable spot and WIDE OPEN race!
Race 5
Top Selection: #1 Owendale 2/1
Alternate Selection: #3 Cornacchia 3/1
Cox over Cox here in the 5th for me. I really like the fact that my top selection is parked on the rail which is winning at a nice 19% clip whilst also having the right running style that has shown success and that’s been speed on the front end. When you look across the board there is questionable speed everywhere but we know this much to be true… our top selection will go to the front, it’ll just be a matter of… can we hold on for dear life and score at a short price?
Race 6
Top Selection: #4 Orageuse 4/1
Alternate Selection: #1 Ruffina 5/1
These are the races that you wish you had some inside knowledge on. WIDE OPEN contest here with my top selection shipping in from Cali and switching to Brendan Walsh from Mandella barn. Horse showed ability running 2nd by just a neck against much better in Oct. I think fresh off the layoff, Walsh is 15% and 25% first time runner, this horse is spotted well in a weak spot to get the job done. I love the mount being given to Beschizza who has been a top jock all meet.
Race 7
Top Selection: #5 No Cacha Na 6/1
Alternate Selection: #1 Doctate Cool 5/1
Sometimes in these races with lots of horses coming off layoffs and dropping, you have to take the horse that’s continued to run and run well. Thats what we have here with my top selection. Having won two races in a row, this one takes the jump to the AOC17.5 after beating open 15k Clmers in back to back races. Amoss/Graham have teamed up to win 25% of their last 36 races together. With tactical speed drawn mid pack, this one should get the perfect trip to score for the third straight time!!!
Race 8
Top Selection: #11 Prado’s Encore 8/1
Alternate Selection: #8 Zamzam 15/1
In a race where I don’t have a clue what to do, I settled in on a runner that has shown ability over this track and distance. Although the last two runs have been taken off the turf, this runner has finished 3rd in consecutive starts and is well spotted against this field today. I believe the return to grass could be just enough to get the job done as Scherer is 21% in MSW’s, 13% in turf starts and 16% overall. Lures top jock.
Race 9
Top Selection: #2 Horace Charles 10/1
Alternate Selection: #7 Bound West 10/1
My top selection showed speed last time out and faded badly against this same level off the 2.5 month layoff. Now freshened and a 3f drill :36.1 on 1/9, I would expect a huge upgrade from start 1 to start 2 off the shelf for Gelner. I would expect Gilligan to show speed with this one going just 6f and last out was against the biased (which take what you want from that as he was never going to contend that day). Hoping for a fair or speed favored biased today and maybe we can score with a nice one here to end the day!!!
I wish everybody the best of luck including Mike! Below are 2 tickets for the Pick 4s at FG today!!!!
Early Pick4: Races 1-4
3,6/1,4,5,8,9/6/ALL
$50
Late Pick4: Races 6-9
1,4,5,7,8/5/4,5,6,7,8,11/1,2,6,7,10
$75
– GenoG