Fair Grounds Racing Analysis — Thursday, February 14, 2019, by Staggie man

RACE 1

5- LIL’ SISTER LOU (4/1)

Mitch Murrill aboard again, solid debut against similar, I expect improvement second time out by 8-13 speed figures if so she wins this race for fun at 4/1.

4- EMERY’S DREAM (7/2)

Speed of the speed in this spot, will be on the lead and the one to catch turning for Home, last two have been competitive against this group.

2- LIL KYLIE (3/1)

4th off the layoff, will be sitting inside and staking the speed behind the 4, could look the danger if the 5 or 4 don’t fire.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS ($73)

$10 WIN PLACE 5($20)
$1 PK3: 45/ 145/ 127 ($18)
$0.50 PK4: 45/ 145/ 127/ 235 10 12 ($45)

RACE 2

1- COMMANDING CANDY (7/2)

Drops in class, tactical speed with the rail draw, should be sitting inside right behind the speed and looking for a seam late in this one, 2 back 82 speed figure wins this one.

4- TRIP CANDY (3/1)

Asmussen horse trying the turf for the 1st time off the layoff gets Geroux aboard and is a contender in this spot, should be on or near the lead

5- PAR ONE (5/1)

Stidham trainee, trying grass for the first time and has been training well in the morning, at 5/1 for this barn known for turf runners. Must include.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS ($20)

$10WIN PLACE 1 ($20)

RACE 3

7- FORTYTHREEOEIGHT N (5/2)

Back to the dirt and faces his weakest field yet, should get a nice pace set up with the 2 and 3 gunning to the lead and he should be sitting right behind them and make first run.

1- BUDDY ROCKET (6/1)

Broke the maiden off the pace and this one will be facing winners for the first time but it’s not the best bunch, save all the ground and come running late.

2- SPECTACTICAL (7/2)

The speed and class of the speed, will be trying to wire them with James Graham aboard. First off a layoff could need a start here though.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS ($30)

$0.50 PK3: 127/ 235 10 12/ 1468 ($30)

RACE 4
***LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY***
5- SHES A FINE DIME (20/1)

Trainer 23% 2nd start on the grass, debut was 4 wide in both turns, with a better trip and saving ground, could be motoring late to upset this field with Mitch!!

10- BINGOS D ORO (7/2)

Drops in class out of maiden specials to face weaker, bullet work coming into this spot, class of the field, must include for James Graham.

12- OH BETTE (9/2)

Speed horse from the outside, dropping in class will try to wire them from the 12 Hole. 2nd off the layoff has room for improvement.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS ($90)

$10 WIN PLACE SHOW 5 ($30)
$1 PK3 235 10 12/ 168/ 78 ($30)
$0.50 PK4 235 10 12/ 168/ 78/  267 ($30)

RACE 5

1- CARD SHARK (5/2)

Tactical speed from the rail should be able to establish early position and work out a perfect trip to win this race. The speed figures are the best of any in this spot.

6- HORACE CHARLES (6/1)

Broke the maiden impressively, sitting right off the lead, should have the same trip here versus weaker. Might go back to back.

8- LION REQUEST (4/1)

3rd off the layoff, will be sitting mid pack and rolling at the top of the stretch and try to run them all down.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS ($108)

$0.50 PK5 168/ 78/ 267/ 17910/ 123 ($108)


RACE 6

7- UNAPOLOGETIC ME (7/2)

Maker Trainee, 3rd start on the turf off the layoff should be sitting in a perfect golden trip 3rd or 4th on the outside and come 3-wide top of the stretch and run away with it.

8- SPIDER DANCE (4/1)

Brad Cox and Geroux team up here, can never ignore them. 2nd career start on turf, coming in with a bullet work. This horse is dangerous and must include on PK3/ PK4 tickets.

2- DESERT RIDE (6/1)

Bridgmohan on this horse over the 1, closed late to break the maiden and will be trying to do it again from the back of the pack.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS ($56)

$10 WIN PLACE 7 ($20)
$0.50 PK4 78/ 267/ 17910/ 123 ($36)

RACE 7

2- BAJA VIPER (8/1)

First time gelded, 2nd career start, speed of the speed, will be on the engine with Bridgmohan aboard and should be playing catch me if you can in the stretch against a soft maiden group.

6- HE’S A CLIMBER (8/1)

2nd off the claim after finishing 2nd at this level last out should be competitive again in this spot, went 7 wide last out, better trip might get it done.

7- BALLYHACK (9/2)

Drops out of maiden specials, Stidham/ Murrill can’t be ignored on any horse, 65 speed figure first out. I think a 75 gets the job down. Can definitely see a 10 point increase in this spot.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS

$1 PK3 267/ 179 10/ 123 ($36)

RACE 8

7- BYE BYE BIRDSTONE (9/2)

2nd off the layoff, just missed last out by a neck, gets the same exact trip last time and this horse just needs to improve a couple speed figures and gets the job done at 4/1.

10- A SONG FOR ARCH (5/1)

Shocking this horse’s best races are on the turf being by arch and all!!! Will be sitting mid pack with Sutherland will be charging up for the stretch run.

1- RISKY STEPS (12/1)

Get this horse back on turf! Give me a reason why this horse can’t be right there at the wire? His two turf starts since the layoff have been good and gets a jockey change for the good in Hernandez… very dangerous at 12/1

9- PSYCHIC ENERGY (6/1)

Morley and Murrill team up here, horse was flying late last out, just need to get closer to the early pace and come flying late especially after a bullet work, this horse is ready.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS ($54)

$2 EX BOX 1 7 9 10 ($24)
$10 WIN PLACE SHOW 1 ($30)

RACE 9

1- KRIS T. (5/1)

Drops in class 2 levels where two back was a good 3rd, faces that same bunch and should save all the ground as the rail is hitting at 22%.

3- KENAI BEAUTY (8/1)

2nd career start coming up against similar company adds Sutherland which will help, horse drifted out last time, maybe a little bit more discipline and this one will be right there.

2- MEISTER MISSY (8/1)

Drops in class after facing maiden specials and Flint hits at 29% with this move, expect some improvement out of this filly.

WAGER SUGGESTIONS ($50)

$10 WIN PLACE 1 ($20)

$5 EX BOX 123 ($30)



Good luck everyone, remember these are suggested plays and free picks! Hope they help cash some big tickets!

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