We can’t continue to be 0fer… lets get some winners home and bring this ROI back into the positive. Here are my selections for the days races from Fairgrounds!!!
Race 1
SELECTIONS: 5-3
#5 From Now On 5/1 – My top selection here to get things started on this 9 race card is one of the few horses in this short field that is in good form. Since the lay off after the Aug22 performance, this one has come back to run 3rd at the MdClm10 level and then bested that same level last out in hand. Although the thought might be that this one is cheaper then others in this field, I like the steady progression in speed figures since the layoff. If there is another improve on the way, he will be right there as they hit the wire. NOTE: I really like the fact that Corale Richards works this one to keep him fresh… 12/14 4f :50 flat.
#3 Stuck in Vegas 5/2 – Without question the horse to beat in here if you look at class, speed figures and lures one of the top jocks on the circuit. With that being said, I’m not a huge fan of this layoff (especially with trainer being 6% off such layoffs) and the monster drop in class from the state bred MSW to this NW12.5 is something to make note of. Of course, as I said, if perhaps this one is anywhere near those last two performances at Ded (70-71 speed figures), this one will be ultra tough in here to beat.
Race 2
SELECTIONS: 4-14-5
OFF TURF SELECTIONS: 4-12-14
#4 Inspector Eddie 7/2 – In a wide open MSW going on the 5.5f on the turf, I landed on this one for multiple reasons. 1, I just love the fact that this one comes back in a short 2-3 week span of time after a big debut performance. If anybody remembers that day, it was STRONG closers biased and this one was on the speed and held strong to fend off challengers. Finished 2nd that day by just 2 3/4 lengths. Comes back here where I think grass is a good idea. Bred to enjoy the grass, dam has 1 winner from 2 starters on turf, trainer Edward Johnston is 34% when trying grass for the first time with his runners. Everything is pointing in the right direction for this one. NOTE: This one had a work in prep for this run… 12/19 4f :50.2 which is something I love to see.
#14 Boston Bind 8/1 – Talking to one of my buddies yesterday, this is the horse that I would actually select on top 10 times out of 10 if he wasn’t stuck all the way out there in the 14 hole. I like how this one has tactical speed from the outside and should be able to settle in behind the speed with no direct (or unknown speed) to his inside, Graham should be able to get him over with no issues and make a run turning for home ALTHOUGH wide the entire way. Breeding is there, dam winning % on grass is there, hot trainer of recent, Graham who’s more then just a capable jockey… there is a lot to like here and the price will be right.
#5 Boston Repo 6/1 – Sped and passed (did not really fade) as they reached the wire in debut running against similar competition last out. Now tries grass for the first time which is an interesting take seeing the breeding. With that being said, I can’t question Ron Faucheux who is 27% with 1st time grass horses, 27% in 2018 and when he gets Beschizza up they are 17% together over last 60 days. I do like the fact that this one has speed, drawn inside (which has been something needed to win these short sprints) so this one will have no excuse as they turn for home. NOTE: great 4f drill on 12/20 :49.2 meaning freshening is there.
Race 3
SELECTIONS: 3 (SINGLE)
#3 Golden Argument 5/2 – This one is gonna be hard to beat here. After coming off a year layoff nearly to the day, this one comes back to beat Mcl10 foes in dramatic fashion coming from the clouds to mow them down at 2.2/1 that day. Comes immediately back here 2 weeks later which is nice to see and really up against a very weak field. Well spotted by Steven Flint, this one should get the pace set up that this one found last out and should be able to mow them down the lane. NOTE: I don’t believe this one will be 6 lengths out of it. Murrill has to know he has the best horse and the one to beat so I would expect him to be closer today and just pounce on them as they make the run for home.
Race 4
SELECTIONS: 1-9-2
OFF TURF SELECTIONS: 1-9-7-16
#1 Theoryintopractice 3/1 – Not a whole lot of value BUT I think the pace set up should be there for this one who is drawn inside. The inside post is not something that I’m in love with, but I believe this one with Colby has enough tactical/race speed to get out of there with no issues and get in a good position early. Now third race off the layoff, we should get a top performance today and if this one can race anything like the 11/16 performance over this track, this distance and this level… he will be the one they’ll have to beat in here. NOTE: trainer/jockey win at high rate ; trainer is 20% 3rd off layoff ; the rail in these events are winning at 18% clip.
#9 Throwacross 8/1 – This is the horse that’s the biggest question mark in the race. Although not in great form outside of the slop race last out where he went wire to wire to beat State Bred AOC12.5, look at the efforts on grass in the PP’s. WOW is all I have to say. 87,85,83,88 in 4 efforts on grass back earlier this year. Its easy to say that this one, who returns to grass today, could relish the grass, loves the distance, has one win in only try on this course… all things could be lining up for a big effort today.
#2 Real Glitter 8/1 – Perhaps the most consistent runner in this field in accordance to speed figures is this one. 78,74,78 speed figures in last three races, all of those efforts against better or similar to what he’ll face today. On top of all of this, everybody in the NO area knows when Sharp/Beschizza team up.. look out. They have a live one here who will near the back of the pack early but will be storming home.
Race 5
SELECTIONS: 7 (SINGLE)
#7 Starfish Point 4/1 – My top selection here for Joe Sharp and Adam Beschizza is in good form having beaten Mcl10 foes just 2 back and then being claimed last out by Joe Sharp. I love the first off the claim angle for him (21%), I love the fact that this runner is now 3rd off the layoff, in which Sharp is 26%. On top of all of this, with rain expected, the maiden breaking score was in the mud at Ded and she stomped off that day. With all things combined and the fact that Sharp runs her back so quickly, pointed outside, she should get the perfect trip right off the speed to score!
Race 6
SELECTIONS: 1 (SINGLE)
OFF TURF SELECTIONS: 5-6-1
#1 Voodoo Spell 4/1 – Back to back singles!!!! I really really love this spot for the 7yo Voodoo Spell. First and foremost, the rail has been on fire in these sprint races. Winning at something up near 25%. On top of that, this horse loves the FG turf course (12-5-3-2), loves the distance (27-8-10-5) and has a trainer who is very good. Hugh Robertson is 22% in 2018, 21% off the 46-90 day layoff (in which this horse had ran 2nd off similar earlier this year) and nearing 30% when Marcelino jumps on board. There is a lot to love here but I’m afraid with the weather coming in, we might have to wait to get our chance to pound this one at the windows.
Race 7
SELECTIONS: 1-2-5
#1 Concord Fast 3/1 – My top pick in this wide open AOC40 goes to the rail for Chris Hartman and Ty Kennedy. I really loved the effort off the shelf (although beaten by the #4 horse in this race). I think there is a lot of improvement off that type of effort. He broke sharply and was trailing the speed and when asked to go, he went, just coming up short against a heavily speed/near speed biased that day. The 87 speed figure is impressive off the layoff and we would expect this horse to improve once again now 2nd off. I really like how Hartman keeps Kennedy aboard who rode this one well in only effort aboard. With all this, also take into consideration that Hartman is 18% in 2018, 21% in ALW, 21% in dirt starts, 22% in sprints… 20% over 25 starters in last 60 days with Kennedy… look out!
#2 Flat Lucky 7/2 – A horse that is in great form for Asmussen who kids Santana to jump on today should be ultra tough in here. A win, a pair of seconds and a pair of thirds in his last 5 starts isn’t too shabby to say the least. Then you combine that with speed figures of 88,85,91,79,80 (the lowest being on the back end of this 5 race stretch) puts this runner at or on top of this field. I really like how this one has hit the board 3 times out of 5 at distance, loves the off going if perhaps it does rain and gets Santana for the first time since Sep2017 which is a huge upgrade. NOTE: before shipping to FG, Asmussen got a work in on 12/1 4f :51.3… nothing to write home to mom about but love the fact that he tries keeping this one fresh.
#5 You’re Killing Me 4/1 – I don’t want this one to kill your Pick4’s, Pick5’s or exotics by leaving him off. This one comes in off a 93 speed figure last out (although on Oct12) at BEL against open 50k Clm company where he ran 2nd that day. As a matter of fact, this horse hasn’t run worse then an 80 speed figure but ONCE lifetime and before the layoff, this one was on a 4up speed figure positive tick. I like the running style of being just right off the pace, I like the speed figures which are comparable, if not, better then the field in here. I like the fact that Diodoro is 23% off this type of layoff and horse fits this level nicely. Will be tough in here.
Race 8
SELECTIONS: 13-9
#13 Harbor Pilot 7/2 – Chalky but much the best in this field is this one whether on or off the turf. I love Broberg 2nd off the claim (32%), 2nd start with trainer (29%) and the fact that he makes the move to ShaunB which is a big upgrade in jockey. Take that into account with the correct running style to win this race (just off the pace with lots of speed in here) and the fact that this one has the ability both on the turf (8-2-1-1) and on the off dirt going (6-2-3-1) makes this ones chances not only live, but by far and away the one to beat at a very short price. NOTE: no works between the 12/15 effort and today which isn’t a big concern, more like a good thing because it gives me the thought Broberg thinks this one was fresh coming out of that last effort and wants to run him back here.
#9 Gentlmens Agrement 5/1 – The only other horse I’ll use in here is another horse who has had success on the off going and has backless that should be able to fit in here nicely. I love the fact that this runner comes in off a couple mediocre efforts and then Gabriel lays this one up for 9 months and shows up here in a difficult spot. Why do I like this angle? Well, look back to the effort on May30 of ’15, horse laid up for a couple months, moves from State Bred AOC30 to open AOC75 and crushes… this horse and this trainer know what they are doing in this spot. We get a jockey upgrade to Lanerie in here and I can’t stress enough the fact that this one loves the distance, loves the turf and loves the off going if moved to dirt. An effort from way back win coming off this type of layoff will prove to be more then enough to absolutely destroy this field.
Race 9
SELECTIONS: 4-5-10
#4 Bourne in Nixa 6/1 – This horse just can’t get out of his own way. When he doesn’t break well, he will run last, when he breaks well, look out. LOOK, lets not fool anybody… just 2 races back this horse was running in an AOC100k at CD and was 7.9/1 that day… YES 7/1!!!!!! Now in for 10k just 2 races later is a cause for concern but with that being said, there are things to like about this runner. First, the inside two horses and the runner directly to this ones outside will take a ton of money on the board and this one could be left high and dry and float up. Secondly, look what this one does when he actually breaks… beats AOC75k beats ALW34k, both MUCH MUCH better then the field he will face today. Lastly, look at the efforts on the off going. Yes, the 100k event was just to much for this one, I won’t argue that, but 2 out of the 3 times this horse has been in the winners circle has been on the off going. Both winners on the off going were against better then what he’ll face here and the fact that Margolis keeps strong Graham in irons tells me that he expects are forwardly placed foe today. Pick.
#5 Beautiful Game 7/2 – The drop continues for this runner who just 11 months ago ran 2nd in a stakes race at Sun. Now in for 10k, Asmussen is looking for something out of this one to show some improvement. I really like how Santana flies in to ride two of Asmussen’s horses today and with just that, I think this horse has a big chance in here. As we mentioned before, the majority of these runners are just struggling to find their way. A lot of them have a ton of back class to beat a field like this but haven’t shown it recently. I like the move over to FG where this horse hasn’t ever been and in successful runs, this one has the right running style to be successful. NOTE: Asmussen did get a training work in on this one before the transfer to FG. I like to see that knowing he is keeping this one freshened up.
#10 Release the Beast 12/1 – Sometimes, you just have to take the horse that’s in good form and that’s what we have with this one. Although cheap… (facing state bred 5k foes and now up against open 10k) this one hasn’t finished worse then 4th in his last 4 starts which includes 2 wins in that time. The 74 speed figure was a lifetime highest for this one and now 3rd off the layoff, another small improve and this one will be right there as they cross the wire. I really like the fact that this one has speed from the outside where there isn’t a lot. Chantel could perhaps get to the front, settle things down as there are a lot of stalkers in here, and stomp home at a price that’ll be MIND BOGGLING!!!!!
I wish everybody the best of luck today if you play Fairgrounds!!! Keep in touch with my twitter @DaVilleKY32 for updates on track biased and who we might upgrade/downgrade in accordance to the track and conditions of the track. Lets knock em dead today and donate more then $4 to the Brees Foundation!!!!