Fair Grounds Racing Analysis — Saturday, December 15, 2018, by Neil Petrocelli

Since last week was not one for the memory banks, or any actual bank, let’s make this one count.  Hoping we get grass (even if not firm), a fast track (Friday listed as good, no turf), and a handful winners.

Race 1:  7 – 9 – 2

Run Bayou Bird – the big win, wheel right back – positive.  The significant drop – negative. Hails from a barn that can afford to ‘lose’ one to the claim, takes it.  Fist Full, was ahead a couple of these last out, but took the worst of it, trip -wise, moved a bit prematurely, has several good races over the track.  Youve Got a Friend – gets points for consistency, gets another piece.

Race 2:  3 – 1 – 6

Jazz It Up – right connections, significant drop – willing to excuse the last in Churchill slop.   Solid works since his last. The turf form, barn and drop – does it.   Ipurrfurcandy – looks to save ground from the rail, so no 5 path this time, showed a little something in debut, barn should wake up – could be here.  Last was big improvement (off the drop) for Fair Shot who will take them as far as he can.

Race 3:  6 – 1 – 8

Grass or not, going to go with a ML price – Wakefield, looks formidable if you excuse the disasterous start in the last.  Thinking that start brings down the odds from the morning line, but is still playable.  Vivid Verse makes natural class progression off maiden win.  Sits the trip again from the rail, finishes. All American Hero – will be bet off last, and based on the connections (including Geroux).  Think he improves off his last.

Race 4:  2 – 5 – 3

Dictator seems to rounding into form for top flight barn.  Nice works off mini-freshening, go to rider returns.  Off Sixes should make the pace, shakes free.  Two maintenance works makes for a chalky exacta.  Drummond, off work over the track, rounds out the chalk fest.  

Race 5:  2 – 7 – 9

Coachwhip really nice work off the last in better company.  Back to reality in conditioned optional claimer, likes turf with give, wins.  More Fun Again, looks to get high caliber barn off the slide.  Ambitiously placed last out off the back to back wins, will be tough at this level.  Hanalei Moon will be tough at the level, steady works including a 5f bullet, insures readiness.

Race 6:  6 – 3 – 2

Higher Power has the most upside of the group – highly thought of in the spring, exceptional works for return.  Silver Dust looks to sit and pounce as there is a significant amount of speed signed on.  Private Party wheels right back off big win, bounces?

Race 7:  

Arrival goes gate to wire in a paceless race.  Should certainly have the foundation off the last, Tapit’s grass, and if not grass – no problem.  Combustible has performed over the course, should enjoy return to grass even if not firm.   It’s Fate – his non-blinkered form put him in the thick of this.

Race 8: 8 – 2 – 4

Trappezoid should appreciate the cut back in distance, think he reverts to a stalk and finish strategy, distance race last out makes move more effective.  Union Cat, ran well in debut in a quick race so layoff shouldn’t be a problem.  Comes in off a nice work, will take them as far as he can. Rubus, in form, nice move forward in last, likely favorite.

Race 9:  7 – 1 – 10

Really hoping this one stays on the grass, Take That for Data comes of a bad trip and layoff  – has the connections, a win over the course, Geroux rides back.  Midnight Tea Time  two works since his last, sits the trip from the rail, uses post and speed to his advantage.   Cutback no problem. Ecru seems to always get a piece, can again.  

Race 10:  7 – 9 – 8

In a race where several return from the same race, will pay specific attention to trip lines.  Looks like Monarchos Prayer had a rough start middle moved, and missed second by two necks.  Better start, and position this time, Graham stays. Andthebandplayedon look formidable again, likely favorite, must be caught.   Nana’s Joy sits the outside stalking trip.  

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