Race 1. ALL ABOUT TIME was in a big speed duel for 1/2 mile before tiring while facing much tougher last out. The horse he dueled with that day came back to wire the same type of toughies last week. Now TIME drops back to a spot that fits him much better and looks like he should have an easier time getting a clear lead. There’s no one in here who possesses a real strong finishing kick, and if TIME gets to the front he’ll be tough to get by. FREESTONE comes out of the same tough race as TIME and actually finished a little more than a length in front of him. FREESTONE has been effective in a stalking role and will probably be closest to TIME in the early going. Could be a battle between him and the top pick down the lane. RENO ROY showed some promise against stakes horses as a 2 year, but then went to the sidelines for nearly 2 years until reappearing here this summer. It looks like it took a few starts to get the rust off, but he broke his maiden easily last month, and then put in a surprisingly good effort against way better last week. To be brief, let’s just say ROY should and will get a much better effort from his new rider in here. If anyone’s going to upset the top 2, it’ll be ROY. Selections 5-3-2
Race 2. LONG LANCE is a short priced stick out in here. He broke slow from the one hole in his last, but when he got rolling he closed a lot of ground to be a clear second to a promising runner. He’s run way faster in all 3 of his starts than any of these others has run even once. The one possible negative is he’s broken slow in 2 of his 3 starts, but both times it was from the one hole. He broke much better in the race where he wasn’t on the inside. Hard to see him getting beat in here. If there’s an upsetter in here, it’s probably STAREDOWN. He broke slow in his debut and then finished well to run a solid second. He was claimed from that race, then, when he jumped in class, he showed a little speed before dropping back down the lane. He was claimed back by his original trainer, Blaine Wright, given 2 months off, and now is jumped up to this maiden allowance race. Obviously Wright likes this horse, and it’s more than possible that he has him ready to run his career best in start number 3. He’ll need to if he’s going to have any chance to beat LANCE. In her last start, JACANA broke slow, but finished very strongly to be second behind a short priced favorite. She doesn’t have much early foot, but she’s been consistently closing well down the lane. She’s going to need to run faster if she’s going to beat the boys in here.
Selections 5-1-6
Race 3.
FINISHED MY P H D broke slow in her debut, then rushed up to race wide, and closed well to run a promising second. She looked like she may have decent early speed if she breaks better, and the outside post may suit her well. With the expected improvement in start number 2, she may “graduate” with these. (Sorry, I couldn’t resist). OREO’S DREAM dueled through fast fractions before tiring slightly against better last week. She looks like she’s the quickest in here, and a wire-to-wire victory would be no surprise. GABBA GABBA HAY (“I don’t want to be a pinhead no more”) looked a little lost running into the wet-fast kickback in her debut, but she seemed to be getting the idea down the lane. She had a couple fast works showing before her debut, and took good betting action that day, so there’s every reason to expect an improved effort this time around.
Selections 8-3-6
Race 4.
A lot of possibilities in here. BATTLE POINT RED is a huge horse, and generally breaks a little slow, then accelerates through traffic early to show his natural speed. In his latest start it looked like his rider tried to wrangle RED back off a fast pace against better and he raced evenly from there. Now RED gets the best possible post for him. Even if he breaks a little slow, his rider will see no traffic directly in front of him to hinder his progress, and he should have no reason to try taking him back off the lead again. RED is tough to get by when he gets to the front, and expecting to see him there today. MITCH AND JOHN E has been a beaten favorite in 3 of his 4 starts at the meet, and was scratched in post parade early in September, so be aware, he comes with red flags. But, he’s been close against better in all of his starts and he has worked since he was scratched. He has a good stalking style for this race, and if all is well with this guy, he’ll be a factor at the wire. LICORICE DROP POPS has won 3 in a row since being claimed away from the Joe Toye barn, and has gone from an underachieving 1 for 13 record, to an impressive 4 for 17. These are tougher than any of the fields he’s beaten here, but when a horse gets his confidence, he can become competitive with horses he couldn’t have warmed up previously. His running style suits this race and another win would be no surprise.
Selections 7-2-1
Race 5
The key to this race, and perhaps the whole Pick 5, is how to read the conflicting signals from SUNSHINE EMILY. A year ago she won twice here in $25,000 claiming races. She then took a 12 month vacation, returned to show good speed for 5 furlongs against the same $25,000 claimers, then was promptly dropped in for $7,500 for leading trainer, Lucarelli. Not surprisingly, she went wire-to-wire that day and was claimed. For unknown reasons, the new connections ran her back against the boys, and, despite being bet down to favoritism, she had no shot chasing a sub 44 first 1/2 mile and she tired badly. Since then she has been entered for $6,250, was scratched, and now is back in here with no works showing for over a month. If she’s right, she will have no problem making the early lead, and should be an easy winner. If you trust her she should be a single on many Pick 5 tickets. But, if you don’t trust her, there are several possible upsetters to look at. CHEROKEE LOUISE has put in 2 strong efforts against similar. She’s got stalkers speed, and should be in good position to take over if EMILY doesn’t run her race. TIGER MOM has finished just behind LOUISE in their last 2 starts. Going 6 1/2 furlongs last time she got the jump on Louise but couldn’t hold her off late. She also will be in a stalking position behind EMILY early.
Selections 5-2-1
Race 6.
Looks like as many as 5 of these want to be on the lead, making anyone who can close ground look extra live. BRETT fits the bill. He’s run 2nd against better two races in a row , making him an obvious choice with these. He’s broke a little slow in both races and closed pretty well from a little off the pace. With an outside post, that running style should be the right style in here. Unless somehow, someway, one of the speeds finds a way to shake clear early, BRETT should be the one. LIVE A GOOD LIFE had a little traffic trouble while finishing 3rd behind BRETT in his last one. LIFE didnt close down the lane as well as BRETT, but at least has shown he doesn’t have to have the lead to run well. Expecting a stalking trip again in here, but he’ll need to show a stronger finishing gear to get it all. STANLEY RIDER is primarily a router, but he does have some placings in sprint races on his resume. Coming off two route races, expect a big closing kick against some tired leaders in here. He’s only 1 for 18 lifetime, so a victory here may not be realistic, but he’s a definite threat to finish off the tris and supers. Selections 8-2-7
Race 7.
GRAYCASTER looks like the one to beat in here. He’s run 2 seconds in a row against tougher, and the conditions of this race fits him perfectly. He’s got plenty of speed, but doesn’t need the lead, and jockey Matias is the right rider to have when some decision making is needed. This is a great chance for GRAY to start paying off some of the $25,000 he was claimed for back in February of 2019. GENERAL MACH FOUR certainly hasn’t repeated the 8 wins he had in 2019, but, lately, he’s been getting closer to win #1 in 2020. He also has a lead or stalk running style, so tactics may have a big say in the outcome here. DAYTONA BEACH showed brief early foot last week in the mud, but the race before that he had the lead deep into the lane before getting caught by a horse winning his 3rd straight. He’s strictly a need-the-lead type and if he can get out of the gate quick and move over to rail the top 2 may be in chase mode.
Selections 2-5-10
Race 8.
ROCKET POWER hasn’t been worse than 3rd in his last 8 sprint efforts and figures to be a big factor in here. He can stalk or close from the back of the pack equally well, and that could come in handy in a heat with an unclear pace scenario. This is not an easy spot, but ROCKET is a must use. IRON ROB had a great 2019 season here while running with tougher horses than these, but he put in 3 dull efforts to start the meet this year. He woke up in a big way last out, showing surprising early foot to duel through a 44.1 first half mile and holding on gamely to run 2nd. He was claimed from that race and jumps one notch to run here. From an outside post his rider will be able to keep an eye of what’s happening on the front end, though a repeat of his last effort could actually put him on a clear early lead. There are several question marks in here, but a typical IRON ROB effort makes him a big player here. GUARDINGTHEMONEY ran a clear 2nd while chasing a loose-on-the-lead favorite against similar in his last start. Earlier this meet, he broke slow from the one hole in 3 straight races, but moving to an outside post seemed to end that problem. He has decent tactical speed when he breaks well, and he should be a big factor here if he uses that speed early. Selections 2-6-7
Race 9
STANLEY’S WAVE was the widest of a 3 horse speed duel, and held on to be 2nd when he dropped to this level last out. The 2 horses he dueled with are back in here, but STANLEY had them both put away before the 1/4 pole last time. If he’s able to shake away from them again, this race doesn’t appear to have any stout closers to hold off to in order for STANLEY to get his maiden breaker. Obvious favorite here. DROPYOURBUFFS looked like he had real promise as a 2 year old, but here he is a year later, still looking to get his first win while running against bottom level maidens. He’s beginning to have the look of a “professional” maiden. Tough to leave him off your ticket, but you’ll want to have other horses besides him if you’re still live in the Pick 5. ARUGULA has only run twice, and that’s a positive in a race full of longtime maidens. He finished behind the top 2 in their most recent start, but ARUGULA ran into traffic trouble at the 1/8 pole, and closed well when he got clear. There’s still room for improvement for this guy and he’s a realistic possible upsetter in here.
Selections 3-4-2