Race 1
Interesting pace scenario in here which will play a big part in who ends up winning. The outside 2 horses look like the only real speed types in here. They both can go to the lead and they both can stalk. As long as they both don’t decide they need the lead this could be a slow paced race. CANDY’S MARTINI won 6 races in 2019 and has been 1-2-3 in 7 of his last 8 races. You’re rarely going to be too far wrong choosing horses with that kind of consistency. He’s done a lot of his damage lately on Golden Gates synthetic track, but his June race on the Pleasanton dirt is good as well. HURRICANE FORCE is the other possible speed horse. He’s been sprinting of late, but he did win at a route at Canterbury last summer. He generally stalks more often than making the early pace, so he may be the one to settle behind MARTINI early on. Easy to visualize the race being between these 2. If the pace ends up faster than expected REMEMBERTOBREATHE could be the one who benefits. He isn’t as consistent as he was in his younger days, but he had a big close while sprinting opening week. He generally doesn’t come from as far back as he did in that sprint and if he stays reasonably close and fires another big one, he might be the upsetter.
Selections 5-6-1
Race 2
Frank Lucarelli confirmed his prowess with 2 year olds with a 1st and a 2nd in the two baby races last week, so it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to go back to his two entrants in this 2 year old filly race. Going to let post position decide my top pick. STELLACZAR breaks from the 5 hole which is preferable to the far inside or far outside for me. TIME FOR GOLD breaks from the 1 hole. A quick start from the rail gets you to the turn and possible lead without as much effort as the horses on the outside, but a step slow break, which, for some reason, often happens from there and you have the outside horses coming down on you and dirt flying back in your face. Quite intimidating in your racing debut. Lucarellis winner last week had a pretty plain work tab showing until his last work before the race when he gave the 2 yr old a sharp 1/2 mile from the gate. Both his entrants in here show the same sharp 1/2 mile gate drill last week. CAMDEN HIGH ran a fast closing 3rd opening week after not breaking particularly well. Experience and an outside post should help with his break. Being the only 2yr old with a start is never a bad thing.
Selections 5-1-7
Race 3
ON PURPOSE is going to be an overwhelming favorite in here and it’s tough to argue with public on this one. Any of her 3 lifetime starts make her a romping winner here. A 9 length maiden breaker at Turfway in her first lifetime start and two closeup finishes against much tougher at Golden Gate points her out in here. If you have to come up with negatives, she’s never run on dirt, there’s been pretty long gaps between her Emerald works, and this is a big drop in class for a filly that was purchased as a yearling for $75,000. But the connections spot them aggressively, so this isn’t so unusual. Of the challengers FULL SPEED AHEAD had a good looking maiden win opening week. But she was able to set pretty moderate fractions and PURPOSE will most likely keep that from happening in here. Hard to get a good line on this filly, but she probably has got the best chance to upset. Going for a real reach for the last pick, but SIGRIDS GOLD had a rough go opening day. She had the typical slow break rail break and then the rider ended up losing an iron. He got his foot back into the iron and was moving into a pretty good spot when he got shuffled back going into the turn. She tried to re-rally again, but tired the last 1/8. Trainer Roy Lumm usually races them into shape, so having that race and a 5 furlongs work since the race could move her up in here. She’ll be a crazy long shot, but anyone who beats ON PURPOSE in here will fit that bill.</div>
Selections 3-1-6
Race 4
GUARDINGTHEMONEY came in sharply leaving the gate on opening day and that immediately took him out of his preferred front end running style. But he continued on and finished a pretty good 4th. Now he comes back going long and if he leaves the gate running this time he could make the lead in here. The outside 2 horses have shown some early foot, but MONEY has sprinters speed the other 2 do not. In his first route start last season he went fast early and drew away down the lane in a very strong performance. Could do the same thing in his first route of this season. If there is some sort of a speed duel ROCKANDAHARDPLACE will be the one running late. He was in against some tough ones in those starter allowance races in Arizona and these may be easier company. Trainer Jeff Metz was a little cool here the first two weeks, but he always wins his share and Rock easily could be the icebreaker for the barn. Not too often you see a horse claimed in every one of his last 6 starts but TEMPLE VIEW fits the bill. And in those 6 races the furthest he’s been beaten is 2 lengths and he’s won 4 of his last 5. Sure easy to see why he’s so popular at the claim box. He generally sits in a close up stalking position, but he does have a win showing where he rallied from 12 lengths off the lead. Trainer Sharon Ross got a win for the extremely popular Emerald Racing Club last week and it would be no surprise if she gets them another won here.
Selections 2-3-1
Race 5
Lightly raced 3 year old maidens here. FIREBALL RED ran a good race in his only start last season. He broke a bit slow, rushed up and dueled for the lead before tiring some at midstretch. The top 3 finishers of that race all came back and ran strong races in their seasonal debuts here this year, which shows how tough that field was. It’s very possible that RED could get a clear early lead in here and be tough to catch. Several of the rest of these have similar credentials, that is, they broke slow, lagged far back, and then showed some real interest down the lane. They are tough to separate in here. URBAN SPLENDOR probably broke the slowest of anyone in this group and may be eligible for the most improvement. It seemed to take him a while to get things figured out, but he was doing some real running late. It’s a little deceptive because the winner of the race won by 8 1/2 and ran a fast final time to do it, but if you disregard him, you get a better idea of SLENDORS late kick. MAJESTIC CAFE also came away from the gate slow and took awhile to get going. He didn’t appear real comfortable pinned down on the rail, but the outside draw should take care of that problem. In his one race last season he wore blinkers and laid fairly close to the lead. He ran without blinkers last time out, but they go back on in here, which should also help with his early speed. Just about everyone in here could show huge improvement in their second start of the season. May need to go deep in here for your horizontals.
Selections 2-3-7
Race 6
DAZZLING DEBBIE deserves to be a short priced favorite in here. She’s ran 3 big races in her only career starts, a win and 2 seconds. Opening weekend she battled up front the whole way, took the lead only to have the horse she was battling come back on to win by a head. She can run on the lead or stalk, which makes her outside post a perfect draw. Horses have been known to “bounce” when they run a very hard race first time back after a layoff and then come back to run again fairly quickly. If she happens to run a dull one it could be MILA DELIGHTS to take advantage. She got beat 6 lengths by DEBBIE the other day, but MILA broke in the air and was far back early. Her rider did the right thing, instead of rushing her up and then having her tire late, he let her settle and when he asked her down the lane she finished strong. She showed decent speed in a couple of her races last year and if she breaks better she won’t have to make so much ground on Debbie this time. Of the others, only WAVERLY WAY looks like she has a chance for the win. She comes up from Golden Gate after being fairly competitive with slightly easier. She’s generally a router, but she finished well in her May sprint down south. She may be too far back early to get to the leaders, but she should running late for part of it.
Selections 5-7-1
Race 7
Puzzling dash in that the two likely favorites are making the kind of big class drops that raise red flags. DYF was claimed for $62,500 in his racing debut back in August 2018. His current connections then claimed him for $25,000 in April 2019. Since then he has had 3 spaced out races and hasn’t beaten a horse. He showed good speed early in his career, but even that had been missing of late. He’s been running against much tougher than these, but what does he have left? Trying to make that kind of decision makes this a tough game. PAMPER ME NOW is also dropping from the races he was running in at Golden Gate. Not taking as sharp a drop as DYF, PAMPER had several placings for $8,000, but last ran in February and now is in for $2,500 here. 3 local works, with last 2 being quite sharp, could be seen as a positive sign. PAMPER usually was near the back of the pack early on in her sprints and it looks like there could be enough speed in here to set this up for his late kick. SWAY ROAD ran races here last year that would have been good enough to win here. He showed plenty of speed and is probably the most reliable of the speed types in here. Trainer Bozell hasn’t had a great start to the meet, but he always gets his share. SWAY won his first out last season and if the top 2 horses in here make you nervous, he could be the one to look at.
Selections 2-5-6
–Race 8
Several of these ran together in the first race of this meet. CATS TOUCH ran by far the best race of the group. He stumbled leaving the gate and then ducked in to wipe out his stablemate and ended up last early. He stayed there until the middle of the turn and then closed very strongly on the outside to only get beat by 2 1/2 lengths. He’s not exactly a model of consistency and will need the speed to back up to get the win, but if he can put 2 big efforts back to back he can get the job done. DOCTOR BRUCE S put in his normal effort in the same race. Unfortunately for BRUCE, often his normal race is to stalk the pace, make the lead in midstretch and then wait for someone to snatch the “W” away, as his 4 seconds and only 1 win last season shows. BRUCE steadied a couple times around the turn and ran a strong race throughout. He may not exactly be a win machine, but an 11 year old like him, who clearly still loves his job, deserves everyone’s applause (if they could actually be at the track to applaud). C C N’ WATER may be the one to light up the tote board. He looks like he is clearly the speed of this group and if the rest of the field waits for him to come back to them he may not stop. He won a fast 5 furlong race here last August off a 4 1/2 month layoff. His layoff leading up to this race is a little longer, but clearly he runs well fresh.
Selections 5-8-6
Race 9
Expecting a scratch or two in here, but as the field shapes up now, there are up to 6 want/need the lead types in here. Going to take the angle that this race will be won by a closer when the dust settles. Playing a horse that is 1 for 23 at Emerald Downs is probably against conventional wisdom, but MIXO may be the only real closer here, and is going to be a big price, so here goes. The two closest finishes on his form are the two where he settled back early and didn’t start running until the 1/4 pole. Looks like that would be the preferable style here. He was pitched in some tough spots at the beginning of the meet last year and he ran races that would be good enough with these. Sharon Ross is always tough off the bench and the work tab looks like he could fire a big one. If he runs like a 1 for 23 horse I’ll eat crow. LA WAUN was totally eliminated at the break as the favorite last time. He wants to be up close, but he will run from a little out of it when he needs to. This is the perfect post for that style. His final 2 races of the Emerald season last year were huge and 3 wins and 3 seconds in 8 starts shows he loves it here. Either of those 2 races could easily win this. Another possible longshot closer in here is EMILY’S GOLD. He has speed, but he’s shown several times that he with will continue running when he doesn’t make the lead. He was quite wide in his opening week race and finished pretty well against a tougher group than these. The outside post will work to his advantage while staying out of the anticipated speed duel and he’s certainly a threat for part, if not all of it.
Selections 2-8-11
Race 10
Not much to get your pulse racing in here. Every horse in here got beat double digits last time out, except for the first time starter, so first timer, MAYBEE A DIVA it is. Her dam was a hard knocking sprinter here and the sire line throws some speed. Trainer Bozell may not make a habit of hitting with firsters, but he has been known to spring one here and there. He’s had a couple pretty quick works and that in itself could be enough. Bozell doesn’t employ the top of the standings jockeys all that often, so the presence of newcomer Cruz may also be a tip off to intention here. COMRADERY got plenty of betting action in her 6 starts here last season. Her first two starts were her best, so maybe she’ll come back running in top shape first off the bench. If DIVA isn’t something special, COMRADERY is the obvious call. Trainer Essex is due to heat up. ON YOUR TOES didn’t break well in her debut. She ran on fairly, but was still beaten a long way. Her sire was very fast and she gets blinkers for this, so she could certainly show much more in start #2. She’ll probably need to improve some to get the money, but you often see huge improvement from race 1 to race 2.
Selections 6-3-2