Race 1
Tough to find one in here that gets the pulse racing, but DAKOTA ROSE put together a nice string of races over the winter in Arizona. She’s got a pretty good set of works leading up to this race, including a second-best-of-day 5 furlong breeze a few days back. The pace scenario is pretty muddled here, but ROSE has shown good speed as well as the ability to stalk and with a clean break from the rail she should be able to get herself into good early position. GOLD SUPPLY ran a solid, if unspectacular, second at this level in her first start of the season. She never threatened the winner, but she was well clear of the third place finisher. Several of these are dropping after some dull efforts against better, so maybe going with the proven commodity at this level is the way to go. No reason she won’t be a live player in here. FINE ELEMENT is one of the droppers. She showed good speed with better to finish 3rd in her first start of the year and then didn’t show much in her most recent against even tougher, now she hits the bottom. It’s possible she’s the quickest one in here, and if she can get the early lead she won’t find she has any real determined closers trying to run her down late.
Selections 1-2-4
Race 2
Crowd favorite BARKLEY returns after his one race season of last summer. He’s had a terrific career, having won 10 of 18 starts, including multiple stakes wins, so it’s easy to understand his popularity at Emerald. He’s got a long work tab, including a couple fast ones showing and seeing that he won his seasonal debut in 2018 and 2019, it’s safe to say Howard Belvoir knows how to get him ready. This is a solid group of horses he’s facing, but in reality, it’s probably the softest field he’s seen in years. He won’t be any kind of price, but it’s tough to see him getting beat. There won’t be any fans on sight, but if he gets the job done you’ll still hear plenty of yelling and cheering no matter where you watch the race from. GRINDER SPARKSAGLO is another popular old warrior. 40 placings out of 60 starts tells the story. He was a cut below the stakes horses at Emerald last year, but he chased a real speed ball for quite a while in his two sprint stake attempts early in the season. Amazingly, he has gotten quicker as he’s gotten older and he should be right on top of the lead early. Can’t see him holding off Barkley, but he could make him work for it. CATFISH HUNTER is interesting. He’s been off nearly a year and a half and certainly Sharon Ross could have used that fact to her advantage and found an easier spot than this if she’d wanted to. He has an eye catching set of works coming into this and Ross isn’t known for pushing them for fast drills in the morning. Have a hunch this guy is ready to fire a good one.
Selections 3-4-1
Race 3
DAS BEAR ran as good as you can run without winning in his last start. He was in a fast speed duel early, shook off his pace rival, opened up a clear lead and got snapped at the wire. That was a tough field he ran against, with two of his opponents from that heat have coming back to win (including the horse that beat him) and two have come back to run second. The claiming price says this is a jump up, but this may actually be an easier spot. If you need another positive, he’s won 6 of his 10 Emerald starts. Another horse who loves Emerald is ASSETS INCLUDED. It’s been forever since he last ran a bad race and he’s got 7 placings in 10 starts here. . He’s got plenty of speed, but can stalk just as effectively as lead and this is the perfect post for him to be stalking. Those starter allowance races he ran in at Turf Paradise and Golden Gate are full of tough knockers. You won’t beat this guy without a fight. It’s possible this race ends up with a fast pace and if it does, FAR WEST could be the one running late. He ran 4 good races in a row at Golden Gate before he showed up here and he looks like he’s on the improve. But, his early career dirt form was impressive, so is the recent improvement due to racing experience or is it due to getting on synthetic? This race will answer that question.
Selections 3-7-2
Race 4
All the fillies who ran in the July 1 race these have in common were soundly beaten in what was just a moderate running time. So, going to go against them despite their edge in experience over the 3 non-starters in here.. All 3 first timers have something interesting to offer. MISS VALOR is bred to be rapid. Abraaj has sired a lot of speedy types in Washington and VALOR’S dam won 3 staked in a row here as a 2yr old, all wire-to-wire. Blaine Wright does well with first timers and last week he and jockey Zunino teamed up to win with a debuting 2 yr old. Maybe they do it again in here. David Martinez and jockey Javier Matias have already won two 2 yr old races together this meet, could ZEYNER be the third? She’s got speed breeding on the sire and dams side and her works are quick. The #1 hole can be intimidating to a baby making its debut, but with a decent break she just might run away from these. JACOMINA is the second filly Blaine Wright has in here. Looks like she and VALOR have been working in company all summer, as their works are identical. She isn’t bred to be anywhere near as quick as VALOR, but, if you like one you probably will like them both.
Selections 7-1-6
Race 5
We mentioned a couple weeks ago that TIME ‘N TIME AGAIN always runs his race, but always seems to find someone to beat him. Thinking SPITTIN IMAGE could be the one to beat him in this dash. In his first lifetime start IMAGE broke a bit slow from the rail, rushed up to duel from the inside thru fast fractions and held on gamely to just get caught late by TIME for 2nd. Now he has a race worth of experience, gets off the rail, and is outside of the horse he dueled with last time. All those factors point to him turning the tables on TIME this time around. 9 placings in 14 starts has earned TIME ‘N TIME AGAIN a nice chunk of earnings, but no trips to the winners circle. He was extremely wide last out and maybe the smaller field will get him a little closer to the rail around the turn. Jockey was pushing to get him going a little more early, but he just has the look of a “grinder”. David Martinez has had a good meet with firsters and maybe LONG LANCE could be another one. His dam was a solid allowance runner back east and once was a $410,000 yearling, so she has every right to throw a runner. LANCE’S last 3 works say he certainly could be one. Not a fan of the #1 hole for a first timer, but if he breaks he might make them all run.</div>
Selections 4-8-1
Race 6
LINCHPINS WAKE ran a solid 2nd at this level in his debut, but gave some indications that she could improve plenty in her 2nd start. She didn’t break very alertly to begin with and seemed to run in spurts the rest of the way. She rushed up early like she may have some early speed to use, then raced evenly until the middle of the turn then seemed to catch gear again to make a menacing move and then tired midstretch. The horse who finished last in the race won her next start and the winner ran a solid 3rd against winners next out. Thinking she could be the one at a good price. July 2nd there was a very strong inside/speed bias in play. FOUR SCORE took the worst of it. She was very wide the entire way around. Just a more even track should move her up in here. She ran pretty well against the champion 2 year old filly at Emerald in her 2 yr old debut last season and had a miserable trip in her second start. It’s possible there is plenty more than we’ve been able to see so far. SHEZJUSTINTHYME is logical, but she’s one that had the bias in her favor in her last. She’s shown good speed in two of her three starts and there may not be much in here to outfoot to get a clear lead. Not a particularly imaginative pick and am guessing there are others in here who have more reason to improve.
Selections 5-3-2
Race 7
Thinking this race may have a fast early pace and some very tired leaders by midstretch. For that reason I’m going away from the likely favorite and looking for closers to upset. SEATTLE SMOKE fits that description. He was up against it in his last. He broke a little slow and then was squeezed a few jumps later. He ended being last early in a slow paced race where the horses who were 1-2-3 early stayed in that order all the way around. No chance to close effectively in that type of race. He is dropping into a much softer spot here and can see him tag them all late. GALLANT HEAT isn’t particularly consistent, but has put in a good late rally at times. He comes off a race where he showed good speed for a half going a mile and that can often sharpen a horses finish when he cuts back to a sprint next time out. Those races at Golden Gate were probably a little tougher than these and one of his better efforts could get the money here. VALID PRINCE had a solid, workmanlike win in the first race of the season. He put together a nice string of efforts this winter in Arizona and showed he kept his sharpness when he got here. Several of the horses who were behind him in his win came back to run well in their next start, so he may be able to come back and repeat against this slightly tougher group.
Selections 5-7-8
Race 8
Lots of different ways to go in here. The two horses who ran 2nd and 3rd at this level last out are very win-shy, so going to look elsewhere for the winner. MISSED THE BOAT posted a sharp win here on July 1. He laid close to a fast pace and finished well to win a 3 horse photo, and those were 9 lengths in front of the 4th place finisher. If you throw out his turf race at Golden Gate he’s had a good run of races since leaving here last season. There appears to be only 1 committed speed horse in here, so BOATS tactical speed could come in handy. HOWS MY HERO looks like he is stepping way up in class for his local debut, but those are some pretty sharp runners he was facing at GG this spring, so not sure this is the class hike it appears to be. Like BOAT, HERO also has good stalking speed and the outside post won’t hurt his chances. Yes, FUZZY DOLPHIN does not have a pretty form. But he set fast fractions in his two comeback races this spring at Golden Gate and was involved in a big speed duel when he routed at Pleasanton 2 weeks ago. Looks like can get a clear lead in here and he’ll be a big price. That’s enough for me to be interested.
Selections 6-8-2
Race 9
Another good handicapping race with several possibilities. The two who figure to duel for the lead were both very stubborn in their last race and both should improve in their second starts of the year. Nonetheless I’m taking VINCENTE’S SHADOW. He finished just behind the speedsters last time out, but this is a smaller field which should help him close late. He had a sharp 1/2 mile work since his last race and a little move forward could get him there. AQUA FRIO is an interesting entrant. A couple of years ago he was much, much better than these. He took a couple of big drops at the end of 2018 and then went to the shelf. Blaine Wright is generally very aggressive at the entry booth and the fact that he protects this guy from being claimed can be seen as a positive. Blaine is very good off the bench and this could be the surprise package. THIS GREAT NATION dueled from the inside the whole trip in his last out and just outnodded his pace rival for 3rd. It looks like they should duel again. If they keep the pace sane it’s possible they may keep the win just between themselves.
Selections 8-4-5
Race 10
Looks like this race is filled with speed types, but, unfortunately there is not a closer in here you can really count on to fire. RIGGSKI ran a big race with tougher last out. He was on the inside of a huge speed duel and held on quite well. The horse who ended winning that speed duel came back to run a huge 2nd against much tougher last week. With him absent, RIGGSKI’S task with this softer group will be much easier. PEPPERED APPEAL was also part of that speed duel and actually nipped RIGGSKI at the wire. On paper these two look like they are quite a bit ahead of the rest of the field. If they can keep from killing each other off this race should go through them. STYLE DADDY is the third entrant in here dropping out of that $5,000 n/w of two race into this $2,500 claiming version of the same condition. He showed little in that race, but had showed a decent closing kick in his sprints at Golden Gate this winter. He comes from a top-notch barn, and maybe he deserves one more chance with these.</div>
Selections 3-6-1