Race 1
Pretty standard fair for a bottom n/w of 2 claimer. Everyone broke their maiden at or near the bottom and quickly ended up in this kind of spot trying for win #2. But with some digging you could say GOLD SUPPLY has an edge in ability here. She ran 3 good maiden races for $8,000 in late May and June last season. Her races with winners are against much tougher than these. She had trouble at the gate July 26th and August 23rd and on September 6th she was used up in a huge speed duel, so you could say those races are a bit better than they look. New trainer this year, and she’s put together a pretty nice work tab for this. Perfect post to stalk or go to the lead and thinking we are going to see a big effort from her off the bench. DOUBLESHOTOFHEAVEN has only run 5 times total and only once against bottom winners, and that probably should be seen as positives in here. She actually beat GOLD SUPPLY in her final start of the season and broke bad in that race to boot. She has good early foot and if she breaks alertly from the inside post she may be the quickest of these. Looks like she’s been working well for this race and is a wire-to-wire threat. This race has a tricky pace scenario. Most of these have shown some races on the front end and some where they have stalked. If everyone decides to try to be aggressive early, the only true closer in this field, LADY IN GREEN will benefit greatly. She had trouble in all her Emerald starts last year and had way too much to do in those races, but did pass a few tired ones late. The lower rungs of the exotics is probably the realistic finish, but maybe everyone gets a little silly early and she tags them late.
Selections 6-1-2
Race 2
At first glance MISSED THE BOAT looks like the deserving favorite in here. Recent racing in California, route-to-sprint cutback, and several close up finishes against a notch better at Golden Gate. But, his dirt races at Emerald last season aren’t nearly as good as his synthetic races at GG, he isn’t particularly quick, he’s 1-13 lifetime and it’s been at least 10 losses in a row since he broke his maiden and he’s going to be a short price. So the top selection becomes BATTLE POINT RED. He ran a huge race in his career debut, and his seasonal debut last year was big as well, considering the company of the field and his slow start. RED is a huge horse and it takes him a few steps to get into gear, but with a decent break he should clear this group easily. REDS trainer, Bonnie Jennie was 2 for 2 opening week and the works look good enough for this guy to make it 3 for 3. MISSED THE BOAT will be the one trying to run down RED. But his lack of speed and killer instinct may not get him by. BOATS trainer, Dan Markle has always won his share here and it would be no great surprise if he gets his first win here. If the top 2 don’t win this, GREAT EAGLE is the long shot that may do it. EAGLE must have been thrilled when he picked up the Form and saw the type of race he’s in here. He won a nice race early in his career and it’s haunted him ever since, because he’s been pitched into tough spots ever after. He ran credible races for $25,000 and $15,000 to start last season and in September ran a good second in a tough field of $7,500 n/w of 3s. So this $8,000 n/w of 2 must look sweet to him. EAGLE has 2 fastest-of-the-day 5 furlongs works showing on his tab and may fire big in here.
Selections 5-2-1
Race 3
2 yr old fillies, all non-starters in here. Since fans aren’t allowed at the races yet, I’m going to be unable to access all the “psst, the #3 is a cinch” touts you generally receive from owners, grooms etc while walking thru the grandstands before this type of race. There are no eye catching workout to be seen for anyone in here. There was a 2 yr old race last week and only one horse ran better than his odds suggested, so watching the toteboard may be the way to go. Candi Crydermans 2 year old colt ran 2nd last week, So MEAN SHARON could make sense. Her dam won a bunch of races and her sire throws speed. Her works are as good as any in here. David Martinez trained the 2 yr old that outran his big odds to run 3rd this week. Could XIMENA’S HONOR do the same here? Martinez is a sneaky good trainer of young horses. Her sire, Abraaj, has thrown plenty of early winners in Washington State and the dam was a nice race mare a long time back. Why not? Frank Lucarelli springs upsets with 2 yr olds here every season. Maybe MANAGINGBRIANNA could be one of them. She has the same sire as MEAN SHARON, and her dam was useful, though not very quick. The 48.6 gate drill the other day may be good enough in here.
Selections 4-6-3
Race 4
Could see some serious speed in this maiden race. KIND OF GALLANT has led for the first half of every race he’s been in except for his first lifetime start. He ran second in a fast maiden allowance race at GG last out and that race could be fast enough. But he’s managed to badly blow clear leads going only 5 furlongs in his last 2 races. Probably have to use him, but at a short price he’ll have you sweating all the way to the wire. ROYAL ASPIRATIONS has shown good speed against better in So Cal, though his best races were in early 2019. He then was laid off for nearly a year and his starts in 2020 haven’t been quite as good. In his defense, he’s tried $50,000 maiden claimers, then the turf, where he had trouble, the 870 yards against a field that included some quarterhorses, where he again had trouble and then last out he showed good speed at Santa Anita after breaking bad and rushing up. He’s a tough read, but could be the guy laying second just waiting for GALLANT to hit the wall. He’s been away a long time, but RENO ROY ran some good races here as a 2 yr old in 2018. His trainer, Roy Lumm isn’t necessarily known for firing first off the bench, but this guy shows a good work tab. Sounds odd to say, but he’s probably laying last up the backside, and in this heat that may just be the place to be early.
Selections 4-6-1
Race 5
Maiden allowance 2 yr old fillies. All first timers. Is it possible some of the 2 yr old stars of this meet come out of here? Again, you may get your best information by watching the tote board. How about one with a big morning line price to watch? GRIBBS trainer, Steve Bullock, has always been known to do good work with 2 yr olds. GRIBBS sire, Coast Guard sired last year’s 2 yr old champ and Bertrando on the female side says speed as well. Bullock had a 2yr old finish really well in last week’s race and this filly seems to have a much stronger work tab than that one did. Bullocks live ones generally get some action. If the odds are way lower than her 12-1 morning line take notice. We discussed Frank Lucarelli and 2 yrs olds before. His trainee, IN THE VAULT is interesting. Frank bred and owns this one, so he didn’t have to start her in a maiden allowance race if he didn’t like her. Sire, Gallant Son, has thrown some speedy ones (see Kind of Gallant) and her last 2 works from the gate are quick. Grand could be unveiling a good one right off the bat. We’ve also mentioned David Martinez. KACTUS KATE is his entrant here. A Kentucky bred, no reason she can’t have some quality. Martinez doesn’t need to work them fast to have them run fast. The presence of Javier Matias could be a plus as well. Matias and Martinez have done good things together in the past and guessing they wouldn’t be partnering up here if she was just ordinary. There are a lot of angles to watch in here. First leg of the Pick 5 (with a carryover). May want to spread deep here to make sure you stay alive.
Selections 3-8-5
Race 6
COILETTE figures to be a pretty short price in here, but she makes sense. She has good speed, but looks like she’ll continue on with it if she doesn’t make the lead. She ran with tougher in So Cal, and she’s been working well for her first start here. Her young trainer Jorge Rosales had a terrific meet here last season and his starters all ran well opening week. She’s been in the top 3 in 8 of her 10 starts, so expect another good effort here. EMMA’S A BEAST didn’t face as tough in No Cal, but she ran well in most of her races. The last race she ran at GG was a very fast dash ( compare it to SADIE SUES race time on the same day). She has a stalking style of running and it looks like there’s a couple of speed types in here for her to settle behind. She’s never run on anything but synthetic, but her good half mile work here makes it seem as if she likes the dirt. There could be a pretty fast pace in here early on and if the pace melts down the beneficiary could be PIN UP LADY. LADY fired well down the lane in all but one of her starts her last season and she should fit with these. Her trainer, Charles Essex, can fire with one coming off a layoff. She’s the one to look for in the last 1/8 of a mile.
Selections 2-4-3
Race 7
TIME ‘N TIME AGAIN has had himself a good career. He’s a multiple stakes place winner of over $40,000, but has still managed to remain a maiden. Trainer Kay Cooper won with a comebacker last week and expect this one will be ready to fire. His possible faults are that he doesn’t have much speed and will likely have a wide trip from post 10. He’ll obviously be a short priced favorite and it’s easy to understand why, but these types always seem to find someone to beat them. Likely he’ll be a single on a lot of Pick 5 tickets, but don’t think I’d want to get thru the first 2 legs of the Pick 5 and then have to rely only on this guy. If TIME gets beat, most likely it’ll be by someone on the front end. BROTHERS seems the likely candidate. He was in a tough speed duel in his debut and then ran a good front running second in a solid maiden race to end last season. His dam has thrown a couple of big time stakes horses at this track and with blinkers added and some fast works showing maybe he could develop into something himself. Stablemate HARBORS RULE showed good early speed while running 2nd in a stakes last season. His dam has also been very productive, so improvement would be no big surprise. He removes his blinkers, while BROTHERS adds his, which might be a hint for you that HARBOR may be asked to settle behind BROTHERS. It doesn’t look like there is a ton of pace in here and surely these 2 will try to slow things down in order to help each other’s chances at holding off TIME late.
Selections 10-9-5
Race 8
This could easily be a Frank Lucarelli exacta race. GOLDEN COWBOY figures to be the logical, short priced favorite in here. Since being claimed last June, he’s been running against much tougher. This $15,000 n/w of 3 was tailor made for him. In a race that doesn’t appear to have a committed front runner, COWBOY might be the closest thing to the speed of the field. He has a 2nd and a 3rd place finish showing in the two races where’s he’s been sent directly to the lead. Guessing that’s the style they use here, but he’s also effective from a stalking spot. 2 wins in 21 starts is not a favorable stat and he’s in the midst of a long losing streak, but this is the spot to end that. If he doesn’t get the job done his stablemate, IRISH TERRIER may pull the upset. He doesn’t look like he enjoys the GG synthetic, but the 4 races here last season are pretty good. He didn’t break well in his August start here, but if he does get away well he should be laying close to the projected slow pace. Prior to his 2019 Emerald season he came off a layoff to run a poor prep at Golden Gate before shipping to Emerald and running 3rd and 1st in his next two starts. The layoff, one poor Golden Gate prep, then ship to Emerald pattern is in play here again. Could see similar results. 2 for 36 ONLY THE HIGH is hard to see on the win end, but when you’ve run 13 seconds and 7 thirds you certainly will be well bet in the exotics. He ran a 1st and two 2nds off the bench here last season, so expecting a good effort in here. But his win record and lack of speed say a minor award may be his ceiling in here.
Selections 3-2-6
Race 9
Interesting feature. Last year’s champion 2 yr old filly, WINDY POINT, takes on her elders. Forget WINDYS last race, (12 hole, mud, Route), but her 4 sprints from last year are all strong. Traffic problems are all that got her beat in July and it took a quality California shipper to beat her in August. She won twice on the front end, but ran nearly as well in the 2 races she stalked. The 6 hole is a perfect place for her to be watching what they are doing down on the inside. Her workouts say she’s been training well and this looks like a perfect spot for her to begin her 3 yr old season with a win. Several of the rest of these are hard to separate. LADY CAMPBELL ran 2 big races at the end of the season after her trainer, Tom Wenzel added blinkers. Her maiden win was fast from start to finish ( she another contender in here by 8 lengths that day) and she help on quite well in the Irish Day Stakes after being involved in a suicide pace battle (1:09.7 for 6 furlongs.) She’s been away since that race in July, but Wenzel is a high percentage guy, and he won with a layoff horse last week with this jockey aboard. A repeat of her last 2 races could be tough to beat here. MAGICAL SPELL has only run 4 times so there may be room for a lot of improvement left. She didn’t beat a great group to break her maiden, but she ran huge in the Wa-Cup race in her next start. A bad break and the mud are valid excuses for her poor race to end the year. Kay Cooper’s barn generally fires big off the bench, so expecting a good effort here. But is it good enough?
Selections 6-3-1
Race 10
STAND IN YOUR LOVE won’t be any type of a price in the “get out race”, but she’s probably the one to beat. She’s run credibly at Golden Gate and figures to be up with the leaders early in a race that doesn’t look to have a lot of speed types in it. She’s in for less than they claimed her for back in February and she’s clearly no big monster, but trainer Dan Markle wins here consistently, and when the second favorite in this heat is 0 for 25 lifetime with 12 second place finishes you don’t need to be a ton of horse to get the “W”. $50,000 in earnings is a big number for a lower end maiden, but WHATA FLIRT must have driven her connections nuts in California. She was consistent, but her consistency never involved any kind of big stretch run. She seemed to be happy to “run in place” thru the lane. That being said, an aggressive push early could have her spotted pretty close to the lead through out. Her form shows she as adept at running 2nd on the dirt as she is on the synthetic, so a typical effort can be expected here. The big question of the night may be with such a small area for owners to watch their horses run, where are they going to put all the members of the Emerald Racing Club who come to see FLIRT run? The 3rd California shipper, I C FIRE, comes from a long way back when she sprints. She did manage to run two 2nds in her first two lifetime starts with that style, but the speeds may not be backing up much in here. Her recent racing and probably facing tougher in No Cal makes her a big player in here, but she may have a lot to do turning for home. Thinking the bottom end of the exotics may be it.
4-3-5