Race 1: The opener for the second day of the Emerald Downs meet has a mix of first time starters, horses that have some races dating back to last year, and the morning line favorite #1 Shelby R., who raced 31 days ago at Golden Gate on the all-weather track. She took some money, showed early speed on the rail, to ultimately weaken, but I think that effort could have her fit for today’s race over the Emerald dirt. Another filly with an edge in terms of recent form is the #7 Living Legend, who’s only raced once for trainer Frank Lucarelli, but is well-bred and drops in class from a tougher group last out in Northern California. #4 Full Speed Ahead raced 3 times as a two year old, competing well, but never finding a field she could best. Although she has been off since September, the work tab looks impressive, and could easily move up with the “Outlaw” Gary Wales in the irons.
Race 2: A dartboard throw of a 2 year old Maiden Claiming for 15k, where all entrants are making their debuts on the track. The horses that stick out to me are the ones with the longest work tab leading up to their debut race, and those belong to trainer Steve Bullock with the #7 Bex and #1 Tough Rooster. #5 Chris the Beaver has also been working solidly since April, and although Jorge Rosales doesn’t have stellar numbers with horses first out, the only other foal out of this dam won as a 2 year old.
Race 3: An Optional Claimer going 6.5 furlongs from the chute, this is as race where you can go any number of ways. The #6 A Filly Can Dream is the type that likes to get to the lead in her races dating back to the end of 2019 and the beginning of this year. Although it seems as if no jock was letting anyone get away with an easy lead or fractions yesterday, maybe she can be the one to sneak away. The top pick should offer some good value, as I can see a lot of money coming in to support the #2 Beau Rocks, who drops in class from races at Turf Paradise, where she ran consistent figures. #5 If You Want It liked to come from off the pace in longer races earlier this year, so has a good shot if someone pressures the #6, and things heat up.
Race 4: The horse that lays over the field in terms of past figures is the morning line favorite #2 Crest Drive. Drawn inside, should take to the lead rather quickly, and if the layoff since September doesn’t hinder him, could wire at a short price. If you’re looking elsewhere for a possible up-setter, the #4 Last One Standing is a proven sprinter, and could find a trip as he stalks the pace. Having Gutierrez aboard for legendary owner John Parker doesn’t hurt either. #1 Dudley Studley is winless in his 4 starts this year, but has ran comparative figures at this distance and level.
Race 5: In this Maiden Claiming $25k, I’ll be looking to the outside runner #8 Bearcreek Mountain to grab the diploma in his 4th career start. Improved figures throughout his races last year as a two year old, and looks to be working extremely well this spring in preparation for the season. Another runner that has been waiting in the wings since last summer is the #3 Papa’s Golden Boy, reunited with Wales to ride, and if he repeats his effort from last July, could be best. The only first time starter in the field is the #5 Tig, and while I usually like to see a race from a horse before backing it against more experienced group, this gelding Has a work tab going back to last summer, and has been putting up great numbers in the morning. Could surprise as he finally gets to the track in the afternoon.
Race 6: A contentious group of 10 go 5 furlongs for a $2500 tag, and the race appears to have an abundance of pace, with all but one entrant coming in off of extended layoffs of over 100 days. The horse with the most consistent early speed looks to be the #7 Stratus Bird, and is cutting back from mile races on the all-weather at GG, where she faded after setting the pace at extremely short odds. Another horse that likes to be part of the pace battle, or sit slightly off the leaders, is #6 Blue Chip Betty. Just got beat in her last out in February at TUP, and ran a figure that fits here. If the pace completely falls apart, the #10 Bell Of Rainer could come running late at a great price.
Race 7: Another wild claiming event for horses looking for their second lifetime win, I’m going to look beyond the top few choices and go with #6 Sophie’s Dream. Although she’s yet to win her second race, she has been in the money in 4 of her 5 starts, was running progressive speed figures at the end of last year, while going off an odds-on favorite in the last two, and finally breaking her maiden. Any progression from 3 to 4 should help. #2 Dark Suspicion could also benefit from the time off, and if she makes a move forward, this lightly raced 3 year old could figure in the early pace. Has never been out of the exacta for trainer Blaine Wright, who is a constant in the Emerald winners circle. #5 National Heroine makes sense on figures put up over the track last year, but there might be some value in trying to beat her.
Race 8: A full field of 12 go 6 furlongs, and any number of horses could walk away with the money. In a group that has some old-timing, hard-knocking types, the relatively lightly raced #11 Das Bear, who has won 7 of 13 in his career, ran monster numbers at the end of last year, and any repeat of those efforts sprinting at the same distance would best the rest. #1 Liberty Park has also put up great speed figures, closing well at longer distances in California, and may enjoy the cutback. #7 Mitch and John E returns to Emerald after the winter in Arizona where he won his last out, and always puts forth an effort. Great work tab, and can’t go wrong with Juan.
Race 9: Another group where the lead will be in high demand, and so I will be looking for an off the pace type that may be able to sit close, and I think the #8 Bullet Drill could get that trip. Drawn near the outside, could sit just off the pace setters. He raced this spring at GG, so should be fit, as the others in this field have been off since last year. #2 Owners’ Prestige could be the speed of the speed, and If no one goes with him, is a threat to wire. #7 The Press is dropping slightly in class from his last race here in September, and is a possibility to pick up the pieces if the pace falls apart.
Race 10: The nightcap is a Maiden Claiming 5k, with many horses that seem like they don’t want to get their picture taken. I like to look for a horse that hasn’t already proven he doesn’t want to win, and with only 6 starts, and respectable figures relative to the par, I think the favorite #4 Clifton Hallow has every right to finally break his maiden. If someone were to upset, I would look to #10 Stanley Ryder. Has moved up from last year to his previous start, and another forward jump puts him in the race for trainer Joe Toye. The other logical contender is #8 I Work For Carrots, whose race last September, when he lost by less then 2 lengths, would easily beat the rest of this field.
Good Luck!