Race 1: The Thursday card at Emerald Downs begins with the only two turn route race of the evening, going a flat mile. #1 Gazing came back in a sprint last out, and ran evenly as the betting favorite to get show money. Should be able to use that race as a prep for this longer distance and move forward. #2 Little Dancer also ran a sprint earlier in the meet, and was only beaten a length. Likes the mile distance, and Cruz stays aboard, presumably choosing this mount over our top pick. #3 Shoe Game is stepping up in class as well as stretching out, but has won 3 of 6 at this distance. Offers a decent price option to the two favorites.
Race 2: This is a competitive group of claimers, many of which are making their return to Emerald after racing in Oregon. One of those is #8 Mr. Takahashi, who paired up nice figures in listed stakes company at Grants Pass, and should improve. He hasn’t raced over this track in some time, but has shown he likes it, with 12 of 17 starts ITM. #3 Royal Bar is also coming in off of recent races in Oregon, so should be fit for trainer Rosales. #7 Attercop is coming in off a winning effort, and although jockey Jake Samuels has started off the meet slowly, rode him in that last out win.
Race 3: This allowance for fillies and mares going 6 has some nice emerging types, and #3 Magical Spell took tons of money on her last out, going favored in the same condition, and against all but one other horse in this field today. She was never put into the race, and might have needed the tune up coming off the layoff. #6 Suddenly Awesome had a rough trip as well in that July 1st allowance, and was competitive. #4 Daffodil Sweet was a first out winner, getting a massive speed figure in her romp of a MSW field. Facing winners for the first time, she might just go the front and not look back. If this 3 year old can improve on her debut, she could be a star in the making.
Race 4: A bottom level maiden claiming race, where some are unraced, and others just unproven. I’m going to go with a hefty priced horse #7 Moki Dugway, who is dropping to the lowest level his 4 lifetime starts. His last effort was a huge improvement over his previous figures, and possibly figured something out. #5 Flat Out Feisty is a first time starter for Vince Gibson, who can win on debut, and shows positive ROI numbers in that category. #3 Live a Good Life showed speed in his debut and faded late, and coming off the claim from the Wong barn in California, should be fit.
Race 5: 2 year old fillies go 5 furlongs in this MSW, and #8 Sacagewea makes her second start, after being heavily backed at the windows 2 weeks ago. With that experience and being drawn further outside, should get a nice trip. #10 Street Shadow shows a nice string of works dating back to the spring, and should be fit to compete if he can work out a trip from the outside post. #7 Unlimiteddataplan is moving up from maiden claiming to a presumably tougher spot, but this move of confidence is intriguing, and might surprise at a huge number of any improvement is shown by this filly.
Race 6: This group is looking for their third win of their careers, and I am drawn to the early speed that #5 Front Row Friends showed in his seasonal debut last out. He pressed the pacesetter only to fade slightly in the stretch, running 3rd. That effort should have him ready to fire today. #2 Gran Fiesta has been off since last year, getting second by a length in a stake at Grants Pass. He shows good works over the track preparing for this return, with a 5 furlong bullet a week ago. #4 Dyf ran too good to lose last time, closing extremely well only to miss by a neck. Martinez stays aboard, and is stretching out to a distance where he is 1 for 1.
Race 7: A bottom level $2.5k claimer, the outside horse and ML favorite, #9 Tomorrow’s Mine, should be tough. Ran well to get second at this level last out, shaking the rust off after a short break. Figures have improved the last 4 races, giving the impression she can move forward again. #8 Blue Chip Betty dropped to this level last time out, was bet into favoritism, and finished a disappointing 4th after dueling on the front end. That tightener could help this horse carry that speed further today. #5 Tiger Mom seems to be the classiest of the field, bouncing around for trainers in California. Has been working over the track, with two bullets, so if she translates that to the evening, could win as well.
Race 8: In this N2L, Wales is the new jock for the ML favorite #6 Battle Point Red, who just missed last out after breaking awkwardly and being rushed hard into the race. Should get a better ride today. #7 Deckload is dropping in class after a somewhat poor effort against tougher, but could have need that after a layoff. #8 Rough Ride broke through last out and won by open lengths. Facing other winners for the first time might be a tough task, but the figure produces that day put him squarely in contention.
Race 9: This is a wide open race where it’s not hard to imagine anyone finally breaking through this level and get their second lifetime win. I tend to shy away from the horses with double digit starts and only their maiden win to show, so I’ll go with the #2 Shamisen, who has been ITM half of his 8 starts. He was well bet last out, making a seasonal debut, and ran a great race only to be beaten by a neck. The move up in class shows confidence that the horse can perform. #1 Always Working got his diploma last out, and might have had the lightbulb click. Wouldn’t have to improve much on figures to be involved. #5 Lochness loves to wing it on the front end, getting caught late in both of his prior starts this year. Made a jump in figures over those races as well, and in this field devoid of any other super speed types, he could get away if allowed to set his own pace.
Race 10: The #10 Stay in Grace comes in off a decent effort at a higher level, and should improve given that was her first race since last October. Worked once since that race, showing it took very little out of her. If the pace gets heated up front, which it looks like on paper it will be, #2 Sierra Sunrise could be sitting Ina good spot to pick up the tiring leaders late. Drop in class as well as race setup could help this filly. #8 Timberlake Gage has run some really nice races this summer in Oregon, and has been in the exacta half of her 8 races over this track.
Race 11: The final race is a MC $5k, where I’ll go with the lightly raced #1 Army King, who comes out of a very live maiden race at a higher level during opening week. The drop in class to the bottom should help this son of Tapiture. #4 Clifton Hollow went off favored last race, after coming north from GG. Ran evenly, but never threatened, and could use that trip over the track to move forward. #3 Plan in the Makin probably needed that last race as well, and should be fit and ready to improve.
-Good Luck!