The first 3 races of the card this Thursday in the Pacific Northwest are Quarter-Horse Stakes, and as much as I love watching these blazing equines tear down the stretch, I honestly don’t know squat about handicapping them. They are always entertaining, and as my brother Carson once said, “They’re like a drag race for horses!” The trio of ML favorites that Nick Lowe has look formidable, and I would point you towards the excellent insight of Tom Harris, announcer at Emerald Downs, who has seen and called more races than I can imagine.
Race 4: The first thoroughbred race of the card is an OC $15k at a mile distance. Many of the runners faced off against each other at this distance and level last month, but I like a new face, #1 Tesla. This mare figures to be the longest shot in a 6 horse race, as her form is dirtied up recently, but an argument could be made based on her back figures. Last year she came back with 2 sprints, and then stretched out to a mile, wiring the field. She then won 2 more, making her 3 for 3 at the mile distance. Trainer Alan Bozell might think she’s ready after her one sprint this year, and at a big price we might as well find out. #5 Gazing set the pace last out against 3 of the other entrants, and got collared in the stretch by the winner, who got a really nice trip up the rail. She went off favored in that race, and returns at the same level after being claimed by Lucarelli. He has monster numbers first in his barn, as well as returning as a beaten favorite. #6 Little Dancer pressed the pace set by Gazing, also getting run down, and was fancied as well in the betting. If she moves forward from the last effort, she could cycle back to her numbers at this distance from last season, which are well above par.
Race 5: Maidens go for a tag of $15k at 5 furlongs, and #1 Liberty’s Finale is returning back to level he probably belongs at after trying much tougher in the King County Express Stakes for 2 year olds last out. He put up a great figure first out at this level, going off as the odds-on favorite, albeit in a 3 horse race after scratches. He was best that day by his stablemate, as trainer David Martinez does very well with his young horses, posting a positive ROI. The slight cutback and drop back down to his peers should suit him. #6 Zippin Sevenz is the only filly in this open group, and her debut was respectable, earning a figure comparable to her male counterparts. That race has come back live, with the 3rd place finisher taking the filly 2 year old stake earlier in the meet. I’ve always believed in the handicapping axiom that young fillies can mature a bit faster than the colts, and she might surprise the boys at a big price. #7 Slew’s Legacy got a good schooling first time out, and should improve with the experience. He is dropping, as well as getting blinkers and Lasix for the first time, where Wright has positive results.
Race 6: This group is still looking for their second lifetime win, and #4 Shamisen looks primed to break through this condition. After returning from an almost year long layoff, he has raced two consecutive career high figures, and has the potential to improve as a lightly raced 4 year old. Cutting back a half furlong might be the right set up for him, giving him a chance to carry his early speed. #7 Freestone goes out for only his 4th career try, after breaking his maiden and finishing 4th against winners so far this meet. Wright tends to warm up as the season goes on, and Gutierrez stays aboard this mount after riding our top choice last out as well. #6 Always Working has run solid in his two efforts against winners after breaking his maiden in July, and is now in the barn of Jorge Rosales. He has been having outstanding results with fresh claims, and has been hitting with nicely priced winners all meet long.
Race 7: A conditional claimer going a mile, where I feel as if any horse could step up and get the big check this time, so I’ll take a shot with #3 Scout Patrol. Improving figures in both sprint efforts this year, the stretch out move from Bozell doesn’t go unnoticed. This horse was moved to a route off of three sprints last year, and excelled, winning by open lengths. Of his 2 starts at the distance, he has the win and a third, making the gelding a live runner in my opinion. #4 West Coast Indy is a proven route horse, and although he steps up slightly in class, a repeat of his last race would put him in the winners circle in back to back attempts. Should come off the pace in a race that looks to have some runners that want to be near the lead. Will likely be a short price, but could easily run to that expectation. #6 Old School Ike always puts in a decent effort after finding a home going two turns. Hitting the Exacta in half of his 10 starts at a mile, Lucarelli and this ownership group are looking for wins.
Race 8: Fillies and mares go for their third lifetime win, and #1 Sophie’s Dream puts in an effort every time. ITM 6 of her 8 starts, and stays at a level where she competed well earlier this month. Closing for second LTO at 6 furlongs, she should appreciate the added distance. #3 Salty Little Lass has improved with each start this season, clearing the N2L condition last out with a very good figure. If she repeats that effort, or moves forward, she could be tough as the presumptive favorite. #4 Coastal Reign was between horses contesting a hot pace last out, and still stuck around to get 3rd after the closers came and picked her up. It seemed as the track was playing more to speed yesterday, so well look for him to be on the front end and possibly wire.
Race 9: 10 go to the post for this wide open $5k claimer, and #5 Mr. Takahashi made his return to Emerald a winning effort last time out. He was moved back to Washington after competing in decent stakes company in Oregon, and scored as the favorite. The move up in class doesn’t seem alarming, as trainer Nick Lowe doesn’t send out many horses, so when he does, they probably fit and are prepared. #6 Gentle Prince was a stretched out to two turns in his most recent appearance, showed brief speed, then flattened. The cutback today for trainer Lucarelli, who wins at 23% with a positive ROI with the move, should suit this horse well, who is ITM 5 of 8 at the distance. #2 Dangersmymiddlename has been racing respectable figures in California earlier this year, and returns to the track where he broke his maiden last year. Wright hits at a profitable rate when dropping horses more than two class levels. Likes to get to the front, and shouldn’t have any trouble doing so from the inside draw.
Race 10: Another grab-bag of a claiming race, where a case can be made for much of the field, but the ML favorite #8 Owner’s Prestige does look tough. His figures are the highest and most consistent of the group, and is dropping in class off a wire to wire win, where I don’t think it took much out of him. The lightly raced 7 year old has gone favored in the betting both starts this meet, showing the punters believe in the horses ability as well. #4 Mixo regressed LTO after a good effort previously, coming off the layoff and barn change. Was favored over Omache Kid in that outing, and never really got into the race, as Kid went on to win and returns again today. Tossing that last race might give some value to this runner, as he gets a slight jockey upgrade as well. #3 Cody’s Choice has tons of early speed, which may play into his favor from the inside portion of the field. He was troubled at the start last out, failed to make the lead, and was never asked for much. 4 for 7 at the distance, and seems to be a “off/on” type horse, racing well and then following that with a dull effort. This should be the “on” race.
Race 11: The nightcap brings us a sprint for bottom level claimers, and #2 Royal Bar takes a try at the lowest level he’s seen in years. You can’t say enough good things about the horses coming from the Rosales barn this year, as he keeps producing winners, and spots his horses with a keen eye. Should get a nice staking trip behind the speed of #3 Intelicrypt, who has one way to go. He held his speed last out, seemingly racing himself into shape, and returns at the same distance of 5.5 furlongs. The third place finisher of that race, Dyf, came back to win yesterday, cruising on the lead to an easy victory. If the track plays favorably to speed, he could go all the way. #4 Daytona Beach is interesting from a figure perspective, although those were earned around 2 years ago. This 8 year old returns to the races with a very quick work a week ago, and on paper seems ready to pick up where he left off. Trainer Howard Belvoir gets the help of jockey Alex Cruz, over his usual barn rider.
-Good Luck!