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Race 1

1^st #6 Shorley has had some tough luck in his three races, including a disqualification last out.  He had the perfect race last out with sprinting on turf, so it’s a bummer he’s running here again.  They’ve done some class dropping, and BIG dropping as this horse has gone from $80K MSW to the bottom.

2^nd #5 Equal Justice is running his first race for Jason Barkley who is aiming for his win of the meet.  He’s ran a few seconds, goes back on the turf here which should suit him better. Last out was his worst performance, but that was on dirt.

3^rd #3 Rockyshak is making his 14^th start.  He’s only been on the board for two of the races.  The good thing is one of those was on the turf. He is 10/1 but looks like the best candidate for this race since he is familiar with turf as opposed to the others.

Race 2

1^st #5 Mutajaded isn’t the horse his breeders hoped he would be, especially at the level he started out at.  Sure, he won at cheaper levels at Churchill but three wins out of ten starts deserves some credit.  

2^nd #3 Fish Trappe Road (Graded stakes winner at Saratoga) running at this level makes my heart sink because racing is not his passion anymore.  His trainer is winless this year from fifteen starts which could change hopefully. He’s at the lowest he’s ever ran.

3^rd #2 Hickory Hill has one race here, one third place.  Just like FTR, this is the lowest he has been. He was off for a while and now that he’s had a race since then, he will be more fit and in better shape.

Race 3

1^st #6 Above Board went from an eighty-eight Beyer down to a thirty-six rather quickly.  Which is for sure a bit concerning. Churchill he handled well most times, especially with the race two back when he won by over seven lengths.  Diodoro trains.

2^nd #2 Buster Brown Boy could give Jon Court his first win at this track this season.  Four wins out of twelve starts is actually pretty good, no matter the level. He did best when Rogelio Miranda won on him so it’s kind of a bummer to see that change.

3^rd #5 Silver Giant was beat two back by BBB, and now is also coming down in class.  It’s been a while since he won too, couldn’t do it at Belterra which really, really surprised me.  He was even claimed in that race. #MindBlown.

Race 4

1^st #1 Finnis Bere (FR), honestly should have stayed in Europe, where she won both of her starts.  They really threw her to the wolves by entering her in graded races, and even a grade one. She’s lost a lot of her confidence since then.  How does she go from graded races to the bottom of the barrel so quick? Obviously still the one to beat.

2^nd #4 Absolute Love comes down in class (I use this saying a lot, it’s boring), and her first and only race on the turf was a decent fourth place finish.  I do think they should have brought her back on the turf right after that.

3^rd #10 Arrowsphere has ran ten races on the turf, no wins, but a couple of second place finishes and quite a few third place finishes.  She may be a good one to throw into your bets for some value. Chris Hartman trains.

Race 5

1^st #2 Elevententeetime is on the dirt for her second race.  Not all maidens perform well first time out and experience usually helps them.  Maybe the daughter of Uncle Mo just didn’t like the turf either.

2^nd #7 Unsweet Tea looks like she is good shape for this race, but the connections haven’t seen real success this year.  The steep class drop helps, but I wish they would have done it sooner because I believe they would have seen better results.

3^rd #10 Summer of Love is going from the level of $75K down to $30K.  I think this is a great spot for her. Dale Romans trains the daughter of Power Broker.  Romans is sitting at 40% at the meet which is terrific.

Race 6

1^st #1 Bella Belle hasn’t been at this level before, nor has she had a win at Ellis.  But, running lower in class will be a huge help for her. She is coming off of a slight layoff which will also be good as she is freshened up now.

2^nd #3 Carolina Beach was only beaten by three lengths in her last race, which was her first turf race.  I love seeing that she’s coming back to run on the turf again. She won earlier in the year at Oaklawn so she has earned and deserves some respect.

3^rd #6 Double Oaked is being looked over at 12/1.  I think she could be some sneaky value with her turf race experience as opposed to the others, and she’s seen success on it.  This is a good spot for her and a horse that’s worth throwing $2 on her.

Race 7

1^st #8 Empire Angel was a pricey gal when she was purchased by her connections for $450,000.  Mark Casse (Like Asmussen) does excellent with his first time starter two year olds. She’s working well, and has been working bullets.

2^nd #9 Ms. Malevolence has been working out well for Steve Asmussen.  Her sire is a hot young stallion. Not much performance in her family with the dam or her siblings, but it can start with this girl.  Her trainer does great with first time starters.

3^rd #1a Biriba has rock solid breeding.  Pioneerofthe Nile is a hot comoditty now that he’s passed away and his babies are bring big money.  Dam Shook Up had a promising career with graded stakes placings when she was young, but got hurt and retired.  This is her first foal.

Race 8

1^st #1 Take That for Data is trained by Brad Cox who is rocking Ellis right now.  He ran second last out in this same condition. Whatever went wrong with the enormous layoffs in between his races have looked like they’ve disappeared and he’s back in good shape.

2^nd #8 Apreciado has had ups and big downs in his career, but since his claim wow has he improved.  He’s only been off the board twice this year out of seven races. A steal of a deal for $16,000. He’s been consistent for Mike Maker and runs an honest effort every time.

3^rd #9 Get Western was a $1,000 purchase.  He’s made a little over $100K. His last out in the grade two wasn’t his best performance and he was over matched, but he only lost by seven lengths.  This horse could surprise some people.

Race 9

1^st #10 Bonnet ran much better last out but was caught and faded slightly.  Her performance last out was a definite improvement and earned her a sixty five Beyer which is respectable for what she ran.

2^nd #3 Double Axel has two races, and her first one was the best one when she ran second at Churchill by a length.  The daughter of Orb was in tough company. This is a softer spot than those $97K MSW’s.

3^rd #6 Dreams are Made was purchased for $500,000 and really hasn’t made any dreams for the connections this far.  Hopefully she can improve now that she’s had a race to get fit off of that long layoff.